Eagles vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Picks

Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers and shares his top Eagles vs. Patriots picks and predictions based on the latest Week 1 NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

The NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles head to Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick, and the Iggles will be looking to snap a daunting trend on the road in Week 1.

Only four losers of the previous Super Bowl have won against the spread in Week 1 over the past 23 seasons, and Philly is trading as a -4 favorite over the Pats on Sunday. 

Belichick has been making chicken salad sandies out of … well you know .. for years, but his roster is inferior and lacks game-breaking talent. It’s just the opposite on the Philadelphia sideline, and I’m not expecting the New England offense putting enough points on the board to cover the number.

Eagles vs Patriots best odds

I’m not overthinking this one.

Philadelphia flies first class in the Super Bowl odds, and New England is losing luggage in the cargo hold of the AFC East.

The Eagles are the superior team on paper, and I’m expecting head coach Nick Sirianni to have his team firing on all cylinders Sunday.

I peg Philly as a 5.3-point favorite in my power rankings, and I’m actually encouraged that the market is returning closer to the opening -4.5 spread after Eagles -3.5 was available earlier this week.

For what it’s worth, 88% of the spread betting handle through BetMGM is also on the Philadelphia side.

My best bet: Eagles -4 (-110 via Caesars)

Eagles vs Patriots same-game parlay

Eagles -4 + D'Andre Swift Over 12.5 receiving yards (+245 via Caesars)

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I have Swift protected for 20.4 receiving yards, and I’m also encouraged by FanDuel hanging a total of 14.5. The first-year Iggle is positioned in a deep backfield committee, but the savvy Philadelphia brass didn’t trade two 2023 draft picks for Swift to chill on the sidelines.

Swift averaged 27.8 receiving yards per game last year, and he sports a 30.0 mark for his career. I’d price this Over at -157, so we’re gaining a positive expected value of 12% on the Caesars number.

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Eagles vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened with the Eagles trading at -4.5. It has since fluctuated between the opening number and Philly -3.5 across our best sportsbooks, and I suspect it will continue to hang in that range. With that said, the key number of seven is a long way away, and -5 and -5.5 could be in play by Sunday.

The total has dipped slightly from an opening line of 46.5 via DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM to the consensus of 45. If the number continues to dip closer to the key range of 43-44, I would anticipate buyback on the Over.

Eagles vs Patriots betting trend to know

The Eagles have scored first in 16 of their last 21 games, which has rewarded bettors with 7.2 units of profit and a return on investment of 20%.

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• Eagles vs Patriots opening odds: Philadelphia -4.5
• Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
• When: Sunday, Sept. 10
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• How to watch: CBS