Evaluating our 2023 F1 predictions: Double-downs and mid-season mulligans

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More than five months ago, on the eve of the 2023 Formula One season, the members of our newly formed team took some stands. Based on off-season moves, pre-season testing and the occasional hunch, Luke Smith, Madeline Coleman and I made our predictions in a bevy of categories. (Pat Iversen avoided his shot at glory as he joined our crew a bit later, which hasn’t stopped him roasting us for our flops.)

So now, as the August break nears its close, we’re revisiting those predictions, and we’ve given ourselves a shot at redemption. Each of us has taken one mulligan and, in the interest of fairness, doubled down on one pick. We’ve also shared miscellaneous thoughts on how we’ve done, and answered a few questions we asked ourselves along the way.

With 12 races down and 10 to go, here’s what we’re expecting from the rest of 2023. — Alex Davies

Championship winners

AD: Red Bull, Max Verstappen

LS: Red Bull, Max Verstappen

MC: Red Bull, Max Verstappen

I’m using my prerogative as team editor to make this my double-down. But consider it less a cop out and more added emphasis. Yes, we all knew Red Bull and Verstappen were likely to repeat last year’s wins. But I’m not sure any of us expected them to be quite this dominant. Red Bull has won every race this year, taking the record for most consecutive wins from the 1988 McLaren team. It has 503 points, more than double second-place Mercedes’ 247. And Verstappen has been untouchable for nearly the entire run.

No other prediction we made has panned out nearly so well. — AD

Constructors’ championship runner-up

AD: Ferrari

LS: Ferrari

MC: Ferrari

Question: Madeline, we all picked Ferrari as runner-up for the constructors’ championship. Why do you think we whiffed there? Was it just that we underestimated the Aston surge and Mercedes’ ability to course correct, or did we miss something more fundamental about the Italian team?

I understand why we predicted Ferrari would be the runner-up, considering the information we had. And though we whiffed there, I’d still make the same prediction if I didn’t know how the season would evolve. The Prancing Horse finished second in 2022 after its early championship push fell apart, while Aston Martin ended seventh. There was plenty of buzz around Aston when we made these predictions, but as Luke predicted for his ‘best of the rest’ nominee, a P4 finish seemed more likely.

Mercedes opted to keep its radical sidepod concept before bringing a major upgrade roughly a third of the way through the season, fueling its resurgence. Meanwhile, it became clear rather quickly that Ferrari was off, and the tire degradation issues continued to plague this year’s car.

Seasons are dictated by how teams develop and progress compared to one another, and it feels more like Aston Martin’s buzz was underestimated. Ferrari, though, is perplexing. — MC

Drivers’ championship runner-up

AD: Charles Leclerc

LS: Sergio Pérez

MC: Charles Leclerc

Luke’s got Madeline and me beat here, even if Checo’s bid for Best Supporting Driver looked shaky for a spell as he failed to reach the final round of qualifying in five consecutive races. But he came into the break with a solid weekend at Spa, and with a 40-point lead over Fernando Alonso, he seems set to hold onto second place. — AD

AD: Alpine

LS: Aston Martin

MC: Alpine

So much for our hopes for Alpine — my countrymen! — which has seen its hopes of repeating its 2022 fourth-place finish pummeled by Aston Martin early, McLaren of late, and by its own missteps. It’s currently in sixth place with just 57 points. Luke meanwhile may be a victim of his own success, as Aston Martin’s sitting in third, just ahead of Ferrari. — AD

Surprise pole

AD: Lance Stroll

LS: Esteban Ocon

MC: Fernando Alonso

Despite Aston Martin’s dip in performance in the races leading up to the summer break, I’m doubling down on Fernando Alonso snagging a surprise pole position. In addition to the remaining 10 grands prix, there’s three sprint races: Qatar, Austin, Texas and Brazil. Team principal Mike Krack told The Athletic in our recent guest mailbag that Aston Martin is still “massively focused on this year’s car.” Therefore, I think Alonso is a name to keep an eye on, even with the progress from the likes of Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari. — MC

Surprise podium

AD: Pierre Gasly

LS: Lance Stroll

MC: Lando Norris

Picking an Aston Martin to score a podium shouldn’t really be that much of a surprise, given what we saw in the early part of the season. Stroll has struggled to match Alonso’s form across the garage, but I’ll double down on saying he gets a top-three under his belt before the season is out. — LS

Kudos to Madeline for nailing this one, btw. — AD

Rookie of the year

AD: Nyck de Vries

LS: Oscar Piastri

MC: Nyck de Vries

Question: Alex, were you and Madeline crazy to pick de Vries, given that he got the boot even before reaching the summer break? 

I wouldn’t say crazy, even after seeing the rookie’s career short circuited so quickly. Coming into the year, de Vries was the only rookie who’d actually driven in F1, having scored points when he subbed for an ill Alex Albon at the Italian GP. But I don’t think we gave enough weight to the difficulty he would have in a car that may be the worst on the grid, the impatience of the brass at AlphaTauri sister team Red Bull, or Ricciardo’s availability to take his seat. The Dutchman was never going to be the rookie of the year (Oscar Piastri has run away with that one), but his sudden fate was no easy thing to spot. — AD

Most improved team

AD: AlphaTauri

LS: Aston Martin

MC: Haas

Zoinks did I flub this one. AlphaTauri has gone backward, from 35 points at the end of last season to just three more than halfway through 2023. Even with Daniel Ricciardo replacing woebegone de Vries, I’ll take a do-over here. Gimme Aston Martin or McLaren. — AD

Most disappointing team

AD: Haas

LS: McLaren

MC: McLaren

This is definitely my do-over pick. The outlook was bleak for McLaren in testing, and the first eight races proved that out, yielding a paltry 17 points. But with the upgrades that debuted in Austria working their magic, McLaren is back in contention with Ferrari, Mercedes and Aston Martin in the fight to be second-quickest. Even considering how things started, there’s no way McLaren can be considered the disappointment of the season. — LS

Storybook moment

AD: Daniel Ricciardo comes back for one race and lands on the podium

LS: Alonso wins his 33rd career grand prix

MC: Leclerc wins the Monaco GP

There are plenty of options for which prediction I could change given how the grid and season evolved. For the sake of keeping things interesting, I’m changing my storybook moment. I originally predicted Charles Leclerc would win the Monaco Grand Prix, but now, I’m going to take a page out of Alex and Luke’s playbooks and make my new prediction more general. My bold re-do storybook moment prediction is Logan Sargeant scoring points. It’s been several years since an American competed on the grid, and the 22-year-old has shown moments of promise, even getting close to the top 10 in Silverstone. That being said, Sargeant has also made rookie errors throughout the first portion of the season, so nothing’s guaranteed. — MC

Question: Luke, you predicted Fernando Alonso would win his 33rd race this season. He came close in Monaco – but now the Aston Martin is fading a bit and we’ve got ten races left. You’ve already doubled-down on one Aston Martin driver. I’m going to tempt you with a double-Aston double-down. Do you still think Alonso can win this season, and where is his best chance to get it done?

This would’ve been my next choice for a double down, but I think a Stroll podium is more likely for a couple of reasons. Firstly, Red Bull’s advantage is so vast, it’s going to take something out of the ordinary for it not to win every race. Even if it did slip up, then I would now be looking to Mercedes or McLaren as the most likely teams to pick up the pieces and grab the win, not Aston Martin, given its recent dip in form. So I’m saying Alonso’s wait for win number 33 will continue. — LS

(Lead photo of Max Verstappen: Rudy Carezzevoli – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)