Everton vs. Aston Villa prediction: Premier League odds, picks

Although they weren’t projected to challenge for a Champions League spot, Aston Villa came into the 2023-24 season with pretty high expectations.

The Villans seemed to click under Unai Emery and a 13-4-6 (W-D-L) record after the World Cup was the fifth-best mark in the Premier League during that span, beating the likes of Newcastle, Brighton, Tottenham and Chelsea.

That run of form and the fact that the squad seemed settled under Emery raised the standard around Villa Park and another step forward was expected out of a team that seemed to be ascendant.

But progress is rarely linear in soccer and, although it’s very early, there are some warning signs that Villa may struggle to carry that momentum in 2023-24. 

A win over relegation-threatened Everton on Sunday would quell some of the early doubts. 

Everton vs. Aston Villa pick

Villa’s lopsided 5-1 defeat at Newcastle was certainly a shot across the bow, but it’s a bit reactionary to abandon expectations because of one result.

That said, it’s not the loss to Newcastle that is the main reason to be skeptical of Villa in the short term. 

Not only did Villa lose to Newcastle on Saturday, but they also lost central defender Tyrone Mings to a long-term injury.

Mings will join creative force Emi Buendia and attacking talent Jacob Ramsey on the sidelines for Sunday’s match against Everton.

All three losses will impact Villa in different ways, but the loss of Mings will be felt pretty hard against an Everton team that is quite dangerous on set pieces.

And even though Everton were held without a goal in their season-opening loss to Fulham, the Toffees looked a dangerous outfit for the entire match.

The Toffees created a bunch of high turnovers and generated 2.7 expected goals against the Cottagers last weekend.

It was a strong display from Everton, even if the final result didn’t show it.

Villa’s defense, even without Mings, is a much tougher unit to break down compared to Fulham, but Everton showed down the stretch last season and in the curtain-raiser against Fulham that they could be a difficult side to handle, at least relative to other relegation favorites.

Sean Dyche’s midfield has a good blend of ball-winners and playmakers and they’re adept at playing an aggressive pressing system which is turning their matches in high-event affairs.

Dyche was known for being a pragmatic manager at Burnley, but with more talent at his disposal the Scotsman has turned a new leaf and turned Everton into an entertaining outfit. 

On paper, you’d assume that Villa’s defense would be able to handle an Everton team that can’t find a reliable goalscorer, but the Toffees are showing positive signs going forward and Villa did rank in the bottom half of the Premier League last season when it came to preventing big scoring chances. 

It would be surprising to see anybody rushing to the window to bet Everton on Sunday, but there are subtle signs that the Toffees are going to be a live underdog and Aston Villa will be a vulnerable favorite in the early part of this season.

The bet: Everton +450 (FanDuel)