F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix preview, picks, odds: Charles Leclerc, Sergio Perez battle for second place

While the eyes of the world will turn to the Middle East for the start of the World Cup in Qatar on Sunday, another big sporting event will take place in the region that day. The Formula One season finale is further east in the Persian Gulf in the United Arab Emirates.

Last year’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix was one of the more memorable F1 races in recent memory. The Max Verstappen-Lewis Hamilton championship battle reached its dramatic conclusion with plenty of controversy. This year’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix doesn’t have the same drama with both championships long since clinched, but there are close battles for second place in both the drivers’ and constructors’ standings.

Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez enter the final race tied on points for second place. Among the teams, Ferrari is 19 points ahead of Mercedes for second place.

The Track

Yas Marina Circuit

Yas Marina is a visually impressive track with some interesting corners. It has hosted a grand prix every year since 2009, and all but two of those races were season finales.

The last two races here were infamous for very different reasons. Last year’s race settled the 2021 championship, and F1 fans are still arguing about what has happened in that one. In 2020, Romain Grosjean walked through fire to escape his car in what was his last F1 race.

Two long DRS zones make passing easier than many tracks. A weird quirk is that the start-finish straight is not one of those DRS zones.

This race takes place under the lights. It starts before sunset and finishes at night, adding to the visual spectacle, but the lights are on from the start.

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix preview

The Athletic’s motorsports reporters, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, discussed the major storylines entering the final race of the season.

Will Mercedes catch Ferrari for second in the constructors’ standings?

Gluck: It’s hard to picture that. Mercedes had a fantastic weekend in Brazil, but is Ferrari going to suddenly have no speed or have disaster strike both cars? Even with George Russell sweeping both the sprint race and the grand prix and Lewis Hamilton finishing second, Mercedes still only gained 19 points on Ferrari last weekend. Doing so again in a “normal” weekend format seems incredibly challenging.

Bianchi: While 19 points is a hefty margin requiring a lot of circumstances to work in Mercedes’ favor, never underestimate Ferrari’s ability to find a way to screw things up. The team’s knack for turning a seemingly certain good points day into a disaster is uncanny. Still, let’s be kind and give Ferrari the benefit of the doubt that they won’t completely squander all 19 points, allowing them to hang onto second in the constructors’ championship.

Will Charles Leclerc or Sergio Perez finish second in the drivers’ standings?

Gluck: If Max Verstappen doesn’t change his tune and decide to play a good teammate this weekend (assuming he has the opportunity), his reputation is going to take an even bigger hit. He probably got the message from all the bad publicity he received around the world after Brazil, so he’ll help Perez this time around. Maybe that’s not giving up a spot, but even holding up Leclerc if there’s a chance. Plus, do you really trust Ferrari’s strategy in a high-pressure situation? For those reasons, I’m leaning Checo.

Bianchi: Perez is going to finish wherever Verstappen allows him to finish. (Kidding. Sorta. Not really.) After how events played out in Brazil, you’d think Red Bull will have added emphasis behind Perez to help elevate him to second place in the championship. And if he is running behind Verstappen late and in need of additional points, it seems likely that Verstappen will give way to Perez, which would then go a long way to squelch the debate of whether Verstappen is a good teammate. Thus, because of Red Bull’s dedication to helping Perez plus having a better car than Ferrari, Perez jumps up to finish runner up.

What do you make of last week’s Max Verstappen/Sergio Perez drama?

Gluck: Just absolutely silly on Verstappen’s part. It makes zero sense – ZERO – in the big picture. Even if the speculation about Perez crashing on purpose at Monaco are true – and I’m not sold on that – Verstappen had an all-time season where he stomped the competition and Perez played the loyal wingman quite often. And when you take last year into account, when Verstappen called Perez a “legend” for holding up Hamilton to help him win the title, it’s clear he owed Perez the courtesy of being a good teammate in return. And he wasn’t. He refused team orders to give up a totally meaningless position on the racetrack so Perez could get a boost in his quest for second in the standings. Not only that, but he was a total jerk about it to the team. My sense is race fans would like a reason to cheer for Verstappen, since he’s going to be winning for a while – but all he did was turn people against him. And for what? So, so unnecessary.

Bianchi: That was a bad, bad look for Verstappen. And very petty. This is going to stain his reputation for some time as he made it easy for fans to think of him as a prima donna who only cares about his own self. And he compounded the problem by essentially telling Red Bull that he’s in charge and will do whatever he wants to do when he wants to do it. What makes it all the more confusing is how completely unnecessary the whole situation was considering Verstappen had nothing to gain by not conceding the position.

Looking back, what stands out to you this season? The dominance of Verstappen and Red Bull? Mercedes’ fall? Ferrari’s flubs?

Gluck: Ferrari’s missteps were certainly a talking point when it looked like there might actually be somewhat of a title battle, but it wouldn’t have mattered in the end. Verstappen had one of the greatest years ever, in any era. Not only did he set the single-season wins record, but he clinched the title with four races still remaining to be run. That’s remarkable considering how he started the season with two DNFs in the first three races and was sixth in the standings at the time. Mercedes’ downfall was certainly surprising, but ultimately this season will be remembered for Verstappen squeezing the life out of the competition.

Bianchi: The continued missteps by Ferrari were certainly amusing, though their ineptitude has somewhat subsided since the summer break. And Mercedes badly missing on the design of its car leading to excessive porpoising to the point of embarrassment, the team not winning a race until the penultimate grand prix and Hamilton facing the real possibility for the first time of going a full season without winning a race was a huge storyline. In the end, though, Verstappen putting up a historic season that featured him setting a record for wins and steamrolling to a second consecutive world title is going to be the main takeaway. One has the sense we’re going to look back at this year as the moment where F1 fully transitioned from Hamilton and Mercedes ruling the sport to Verstappen and Red Bull becoming the dominating force.

Who is your pick to win the race?

Gluck: Maybe I’m giving Verstappen too much credit, but this feels like a chance for a make-good. You’d think Red Bull is not happy with how he acted in Brazil – not just Christian Horner, but the entire team. They’re going to put a ton of effort into helping Perez get P2 in the points and Verstappen would do himself a lot of favors if he shared that mentality. It’s tempting to pick a Mercedes car after last week, but I’m not sure if they can repeat the Brazil performance. So I’ll go with Perez for the win to cap off an all-around dominant Red Bull campaign.

Bianchi: Verstappen dominates the race but in the closing laps he slows so that Perez can take the win and score enough points to push ahead of Leclerc in the standings. The gesture will feel a bit forced due the events of last week, but a win is a win and Perez will gladly take it.

Formula One driver standings top 10

The second-place showdown will be the main storyline of the weekend. Leclerc enters technically ahead of Perez by virtue of winning more races this season. If both crash out, Leclerc will get second place (unless George Russell wins with fastest lap). Otherwise, it’s about which driver will finish ahead of the other. Those two points that Verstappen refused to give back to Perez in Brazil could be decisive.

Formula One constructor standings

Mercedes’ 1-2 in Brazil cut a chunk of the gap to Ferrari, but 19 points is still significant. It might take another race win for Mercedes or a Ferrari DNF for the German team to catch the Italian team. Still, it’s close enough that it’s possible, which did not seem realistic halfway through this season. In the last 10 races, Mercedes has more podiums (10) than Ferrari (8) and has a win while Ferrari does not.

Outside of Red Bull at the top and Williams at the bottom, every other team is in a chase for a position in the standings. McLaren making up 19 points on Alpine for fourth is less realistic, but if a weird race unfolds, it’s possible.

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix odds

Verstappen is still the favorite, but by a much smaller margin than recent races. Mercedes’ strength is also believed to be sustainable, with its drivers clearly ahead of the Ferraris.