Monaco Grand Prix picks, odds, preview: The case for Charles Leclerc to contend with Max Verstappen
After the second unplanned gap in the Formula One calendar, the series’ crown jewel race is up next. It’s time for the Monaco Grand Prix and all the glitz and glamour that comes with it.
While Monaco isn’t known for producing quality, entertaining races anymore, it still arguably retains its place as the biggest spectacle in the sport. The tight circuit makes passing extremely difficult, adding to the importance of strategy and clean pit stops. But the views of the water in the middle of a dense urban setting that includes a tunnel section — something rare in F1 — is hard not to like.
This year’s race features some potential added intrigue in that it might give someone other than Red Bull a good chance at victory, at least relative to other tracks. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, competing in his home race, has won pole position the last two years in Monaco. In 2021, an accident in qualifying led to an early end to the session that secured his pole, but also led to him not being able to compete in the race. Last year, a Ferrari strategy blunder proved costly and led to a Sergio Pérez win.
It’s fair to say Leclerc has been snake bit here. This year offers another chance, but does Ferrari have the car for it?
Max Verstappen is the betting favorite, as he has been for every race so far and likely will be for every race the rest of the season, but not by a significant margin. Verstappen, who won this race in 2021, is +125 (5-to-4) on BetMGM.
Interestingly, there is a big gap between Leclerc’s odds to win qualifying (+175, 7-to-4) and to win the race (+350, 7-to-2). That’s normal given Ferrari’s performance has been much better on Saturdays as opposed to Sundays, but Monaco is all about Saturday. If ever there was a race to take pole position and just get wide while Verstappen or Pérez nip at his heels, but can’t get around him, this is it.
Do our staff writers see an opportunity for Leclerc and Ferrari this weekend? They answered questions about the race and made predictions for what the podium will look like.
For a change of pace, Verstappen is not a huge favorite this week (+125). Do you think this race is more wide open or should Red Bull still dominate?
Luke Smith: I imagine this is the shortest Verstappen will be all season, for two reasons. One is that Monaco won’t be as suited to the RB19 car, which excels on long straights, as other tracks, giving a chance to the likes of Ferrari, Mercedes and Aston Martin to be a step closer. And even if Red Bull is still the quickest car (which I still expect) then Sergio Pérez’s impressive street circuit record would point to him being a greater threat to Verstappen.
Madeline Coleman: I wholeheartedly agree with Luke. Additionally, track position is key in Monaco given how narrow the street circuit is. That being said, overtaking isn’t impossible here. Aston Martin and Ferrari (particularly the latter) have been closer to Red Bull on Saturdays — though it is worth pointing out the Red Bull drivers have secured four pole positions while Leclerc took both in Baku. The race could be more wide open.
Jordan Bianchi: Monaco’s tight confines make it tough to pass thereby putting an even greater emphasis on track position. So it’s conceivable that should Verstappen find himself not in the lead, Red Bull’s performance superiority won’t matter in closing that gap because he’ll struggle to pass. This factor creates the feeling that this weekend is definitely more wide open than at nearly any other juncture this season with no sense of inevitability that Verstappen will win, especially with Pérez being so good on street circuits. Now watch Verstappen go out and lead every lap en route to yet another victory.
Jeff Gluck: It all depends on if Leclerc can deliver a sensational performance in qualifying. Personally, I think he can and am going with him for the win. He has shown to be F1’s best qualifier when he gets it right, and if he can avoid mistakes at his home track, he could carry a pole position to the win with the two Red Bulls behind him.
Ferrari has been quick in qualifying this year, Leclerc has won pole position the last two years at Monaco, which is arguably the most important qualifying of the season. Does Leclerc have a reasonable chance at winning this race?
Smith: It all hinges on qualifying, but if anyone can make it happen, then it’s Leclerc. He has a rotten home race record filled with incidents and misfortune dating right back to his junior career. But we’ve seen the past two years how he can hook things up around Monaco, and is arguably the best qualifier in F1. Sticking the Ferrari on pole would leave Red Bull with a serious job to try and recover the win.
Coleman: While making our preseason predictions, I chose Leclerc winning the Monaco Grand Prix as a storybook moment — and I do still think there’s a chance despite how the season has gone thus far. He’s one of the strongest qualifiers on the grid, but he’ll need to be careful to not take too much of a risk like he did during Miami qualifying.
Bianchi: If Leclerc qualifies on the pole again, or even the front row, he should be in the mix for the win on Sunday. The challenge will be for him to maintain that track position and for Ferrari not to bungle its strategy, neither of which is a sure thing. But if you’re looking for someone to smash Red Bull’s stranglehold on the top spot on the podium, then Leclerc is a good pick. And so is Fernando Alonso.
Gluck: As mentioned above, I absolutely think he can get pole and win the race. Monaco isn’t like the other tracks where Leclerc gets pole but quickly gets swallowed up by the Red Bulls’ advantage with their car. Now, can he have a mistake-free race if he does start P1? And can Ferrari get the strategy right? Those are two valid questions for sure. But it’s possible.
Made up prop bet: Will there be over or under 1.5 on-track overtakes in the top 5 of the field?
Smith: Under. Sorry, but in this generation of big, wide F1 cars, the tight confines of the Monaco circuit are more restrictive than ever. Don’t expect pass after pass at the front.
Coleman: Under. Turn 1 on the opening lap may be the best chance to see it if some cars lockup, but this is a narrow street circuit. The 2003 grand prix saw no passing moves.
Bianchi: Under. Sadly Monaco just isn’t a competitive track with the outcome often feeling like it’s decided in qualifying rather than race itself.
Gluck: Over. Two passes in the entire top five over the course of a race? That’s not a terrible bet. If someone passes for fifth place and gets passed back later, that’s two right there. Still, the fact this is even a discussion shows you how unwatchable this race can be.
Do you expect the European section of the calendar to be notably different from what we’ve seen through the first five races?
Smith: I think we’re going to be moving more into ‘Verstappen territory’ soon. We’ve had a run of street tracks to start the season, but after Monaco is done, the only ‘non-traditional’ track between now and Singapore in September is next month’s Canadian Grand Prix. It should play more to Verstappen’s strengths and give him the chance to go on a run.
Coleman: Car upgrades could make this stretch interesting. Mercedes, for example, is going “in a new development direction,” and it starts with this weekend’s upgrades. Team principal Toto Wolff cautioned that “it won’t be a silver bullet,” but they’re hoping it’ll bring “a more stable and predictable platform.” The battle for second could become closer as the Silver Arrows and Ferrari develop their respective cars, and meanwhile, the midfield is even tighter.
Bianchi: As Luke notes, the upcoming stretch featuring permanent courses rather than temporary circuits favors Verstappen while negating an area that is Pérez’s strong suit. It is expected that Verstappen will roll off a succession of wins to take firm control of the championship.
Gluck: I agree with the others who think it’s about to be a Verstappen blowout. As always, he is inevitable.
Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium in Monaco?
Smith: 1. Verstappen 2. Leclerc 3. Pérez
Coleman: 1. Verstappen 2. Leclerc 3. Pérez
Bianchi: 1. Pérez 2. Verstappen 3. Alonso
Gluck: 1. Leclerc 2. Pérez 3. Verstappen
