F1 Japanese Grand Prix odds, podium predictions: Should we expect a return to Red Bull dominance?

Formula One fans may have a rosier demeanor this week after watching the most competitive race of the season, but competitive races aren’t likely to be the norm the rest of the way this season. By no coincidence that competitive race to the podium in Singapore paired with Red Bull having a tough weekend. Red Bull is not expected to have a tough weekend in Japan.

The Suzuka Circuit, which hosts this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix, is the type of track that Red Bull dominates. In fairness, before Singapore every track was the type of track that Red Bull had dominated. Christian Horner and Max Verstappen warned that Red Bull could struggle in Singapore, but they aren’t likely to be making any similar statements in Japan.

Verstappen is still a massive favorite to win this weekend with teammate Sergio Pérez second in the odds.

If Verstappen does win, Red Bull is likely to clinch the constructors’ championship. Red Bull needs to outscore Mercedes while not being outscored by 24 points by Ferrari to lock up the championship. Speaking of constructors’ champions, the last nine race winners at Suzuka have come from the eventual constructors’ champion. As if you needed another omen to think Red Bull will win this weekend.

The Athletic’s F1 crew talked about why this track is suited for Red Bull, why Aston Martin and McLaren are so up and down and made predictions for the podium in Japan.

Does Suzuka have the right variables to replicate the type of race we saw in Singapore or should we expect a return to Red Bull domination?

Luke Smith: It’s going to be a return to Red Bull domination this weekend. Singapore was super refreshing with its long overdue open fight for the win thanks to Red Bull being out of the picture. But the requirements of Suzuka could actually make this one of the most dominant Red Bull tracks of the season. Max Verstappen and Sergio Pérez are both quietly confident of a return to form, while Lewis Hamilton said something would be up if Red Bull doesn’t win the race by 30 seconds. Expect a return to the usual F1 2023 script this weekend.

Madeline Coleman: It’s expected to be a return of Red Bull domination. As Lando Norris commented during media day, the Milton Keynes-based team bouncing back is “pretty much a guarantee.” Singapore and Japan are very different from each other because the former is a street circuit while the latter is a more traditional track. Pérez said during Thursday’s press conference Red Bull doesn’t completely understand “what went so wrong in Singapore. We have some ideas, but certainly this track is very different. So, there should not be a reason why not to be strong in Suzuka. Actually, they should be one of the best circuits for us.”

Patrick Iversen: Aside from DRS speed, the bedrock of the RB19’s dominance is long, high-speed corners. The Suzuka Circuit is chock-full of them. Even the F1 Model U.N. kids couldn’t design a track better suited for the Red Bulls.

How should AlphaTauri handle their driver trio? Stick with Liam Lawson or give the seat back to Daniel Ricciardo?

Smith: We know Ricciardo will return when he’s fit, the plan being for him to return at the next race in Qatar if possible. Beyond that, I think a Ricciardo/Tsunoda line-up would be the best for AlphaTauri in 2024, but Lawson absolutely deserves a spot on the grid. Red Bull would be wise to try and see if there’s an opening at Williams, because he’s better than spending a year on the sidelines as a reserve driver.

Coleman: Lawson won’t finish out the rest of the year once Ricciardo is fit to return. That’s always been the plan, even though he has had standout performances. That being said, Lawson has earned a seat on the grid, whether it be for next season or the near future.

Iversen: I think Lawson has earned a seat somewhere in 2024, but the options outside of AlphaTauri are limited. And I don’t run Red Bull or AlphaTauri. There are changes afoot in Faenza, and I can see why a Tsunoda/Ricciardo pairing could offer the experience and stability the team might need in 2024. Lawson might be a better fit than Nyck de Vries ever was – but the fact is that AlphaTauri (and Red Bull) took a risk with a rookie this year, and it became a mess. They may not want to run that play again so soon.

Lando Norris is third in the odds behind both Red Bulls for Japan. Can you figure out why the McLaren is so up and down?

Smith: A lot of it comes down to the strengths of the McLaren MCL60 car. The upgrade in Singapore offered a big step forward, allowing the team to be competitive on a track that didn’t totally suit its strengths. Seeing Norris third in the odds for this weekend is no surprise, given how good the McLaren is through high-speed corners of which there are plenty at Suzuka. Verstappen even thought Norris could be a contender at the very front. While that’s a bridge too far, I’d expect him to lead the best of the rest battle this weekend.

Coleman: It’s been a game of catch-up for McLaren this season, but its midseason upgrades like what was brought in Austria and Singapore have made the MCL60 more competitive. As Luke said, I do expect Norris to be in the mix this weekend but contending for the lead of the best-of-the-rest battle rather than threatening Red Bull.

Iversen: I go back to preseason testing when CEO Zak Brown admitted the team had missed its winter development targets. Midseason upgrades have helped bring the MCL60 (literally) up to speed, but the truth is the team has played catch-up all season. The inconsistency, even this late in the year, isn’t surprising.

Fernando Alonso is now well behind the top eight in the odds. Will Alonso or Aston Martin get another podium this season?

Smith: I’m going to say yes, there’ll be one more podium for Alonso. The team has struggled against many of its close rivals in recent races, and was totally out of the picture in Singapore. But Alonso seems confident the issues that caused this have been resolved. I’d expect Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren to be more regular podium visitors, but Alonso being Alonso, I’ll tip him for one more before the season is out.

Coleman: I don’t think so, but I’m more 60/40 on that front because of Alonso’s confidence (as Luke noted). During the Belgian Grand Prix weekend, Aston Martin team principal Mike Krack told The Athletic readers he expected Singapore to be a track where they’d be competitive, but they weren’t. Las Vegas is a wild card because it’s a new street circuit that no one has competed on so that could play in Aston Martin’s favor.

Iversen: Sigh. I … yes? I agree with both of my colleagues. Aston Martin’s remaining best chance (Singapore) came and went, but it’s hard to bet against Alonso. I’ll say he gets third in Abu Dhabi only because he says some version of “It’s a long way to go until Abu Dhabi” every week. Maybe Alonso’s been leaving hints.

Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium in Japan?

Smith: 1. Verstappen, 2. Pérez, 3. Norris

Coleman: 1. Verstappen, 2. Pérez, 3. Norris

Iversen: 1. Verstappen, 2. Norris, 3. Sainz