Braves-Rays prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, July 7

The series of the first half is officially here, as the American League-leading Rays (57-33) take on the National League-leading Braves (58-28) in a battle of the two best teams in baseball.

The Braves will turn to veteran Charlie Morton (8-6, 3.57 ERA) in the series opener, while the Rays will counter with Tyler Glasnow (2-2, 4.50 ERA). First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET.

The Braves are slight -105 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Rays are at -115. The total is set at 8.5.

Braves-Rays picks: Friday, July 7

Injury report

Braves

Out: RP Jesse Chavez (left shin contusion), SP Max Freid (left forearm strain), RP Dylan Lee (left shoulder inflammation)

Rays

Out: SP Shane McClanahan (mid-back tightness)

Starting pitchers

Charlie Morton vs. Tyler Glasnow

So far this year, Morton has been what he’s been for most of his career -- a solid, middle-of-the-rotation arm. He’s yet to go more than seven innings in a start, but hasn’t gone less than five. Morton had three scoreless outings this season, but has also had four where he’s surrendered four runs or more. He’s coming off a start where he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Marlins. Morton’s curveball is still one of the best pitches in baseball (hitters are averaging .197 against the pitch and he’s in the 97th percentile in curveball spin), but his fastball isn’t fooling anyone (.325 batting average against).

After missing the start of the season with an oblique injury, Glasnow finally appears to have his feet under him after making seven starts this season. He has serious swing and miss stuff (he’s int he 97th percentile in strikeout rate and the 98th percentile in whiff rate), and has a put away percentage of 30.6% with his slider and curveball. That said, Glasnow, like Morton, has a suspect fastball (.296 batting average against) and is coming off a start where he allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings.

Over/Under pick

I’m banking on tonight being a bit of a pitcher’s duel. Both team’s have slightly above-average whiff rates, which should loom large against two starters who posses strong swing-and-miss stuff. I’m thinking pitching wins out over offense tonight.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

I like the Rays to pull off the slight upset. They’ve got a bit of an advantage on the mound, and posses a stronger bullpen, which will be important in a game that I think is decided in the late innings.