FL vs. North Carolina (UNC) Prediction, Preview, and Odds

The Miami Hurricanes travel to North Carolina on Saturday night to take on the 12th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels in ACC action. The Hurricanes fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week in devastating fashion against Georgia Tech. The Tar Heels improved to 5-0 with a decisive win over Syracuse. Game time is set for 7:30 PM EST.

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Hoping to Regroup

On Saturday. the Hurricanes turned the ball over five times and fell 23-20 to Georgia Tech at home. The Hurricanes led 20-16 with under a minute to go when they fumbled the exchange between the quarterback and running back while trying to run out the clock. Georgia Tech got the ball and a 44-yard touchdown pass with just one second on the clock stunned the sellout crown and dropped the 'Canes to 4-1 on the season.

“Obviously disappointing in a lot of different aspects,” head coach Mario Cristobal said. “Obviously, again, just fell short in so many different ways. Battled. There were some signs of life. Not having a great first half, but coming out in the second half, doing some things and falling behind and getting up again. And then, at the end of the game, had a chance to put it away and should have just taken a timeout right there and recalibrate. Just take a knee. Gave them a chance and they took advantage of it and scored. It’s that simple.”

Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was an impressive 24-of-26 passing for 288 yards but threw three interceptions to go along with a touchdown. Running back Don Chaney Jr. had 103 yards rushing and fellow running back Henry Parrish Jr. added 52 yards and a touchdown. Wide receiver Xavier Restrepo had a career-high 12 receptions for 123 yards in the loss. Overall, the Hurricanes offense accumulated 454 total yards of offense but were done in by the season-high five turnovers.

On the defensive end, the Hurricanes held Georgia Tech to 250 total yards of offense but had to work around all of the turnovers from the offense. They forced two turnovers themselves, both on interceptions. They had five tackles for loss including one sack. Kam Kinchens led the way with seven tackles while linebacker Francisco Mauigoa had four tackles and an interception.

The Hurricanes will try and regroup this week against the 12th-ranked Heels on the road. They come into this matchup with the 11th best offense in college football. The Hurricanes are 15th in the nation running the football and 23rd through the air. Miami has the 31st most efficient offense in the nation in the red zone. On the defensive end, Miami is 11th in total defense. They are an impressive 3rd against the run and 58th against the pass. The 'Canes are ranked 40th in the country in red zone defense.

Despite their five turnover performance last week, the Hurricanes are a respectable 48th in the nation in turnover differential. They have been woefully inept with unforced errors, however, ranking 117th in the country in penalties per game.

Injury Report:  DL A. Mesidor (lower body), TE E. Arroyo (knee) and WR J. George (undisclosed) are all questionable. RB T. Citizen (knee), OL S. Okunlola (lower body) and DL B. Deen (lower body) are out.

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Tar Heels Getting Offensive

The North Carolina Tar Heels remain undefeated after pounding Syracuse at home on Saturday, 40-7. The Tar Heels built a 27-0 halftime lead and cruised from there as they improved to 5-0 to start the season for the first time in 26 years and are now 2-0 in ACC play.

"So proud of the guys. I told them to start the game we're playing to a standard. Syracuse was undefeated and then lost some games, so they were going to come in like Pittsburgh and be ready to play. And Dino Babers is a really good coach. But I don't think I've seen a first half that dominant in a long time. They had 22 plays, we had 59." Head coach Mack Brown said after the one-sided win.

Quarterback Drake Maye had another strong day with a season-high 442 yards including 280 yards in the first half alone. Mayes threw three touchdown passes in the game and also ran for 55 yards and an additional touchdown. Overall, the Heels had 644 yards of total offense and 33 first downs in the victory. Wide receiver Nate McCollum was another standout with seven catches for 135 yards.

North Carolina's defense was strong as well, shutting out the Orange in the first half and holding them to just 11 first downs in the game. In all, the Heels held Syracuse to 221 yards of total offense. They had three tackles for loss in the game including one sack. The Tar Heels also forced two turnovers in the game, both on interceptions.

The Tar Heels welcome in Syracuse on Saturday looking to improve to 6-0 on the season as they continue to rise in the National rankings. The Heels come into this matchup with the sixth-best offense in the country behind Heisman-hopeful Mayes. They are 41st rushing the football and 11th in the country through the air. In the red zone, the Tar Heels are 35th in efficiency. The major improvement for North Carolina this season has been on the defensive side of the ball. They are ranked 27th in total defense in the country. The Tar Heels are 35th against the run and 43rd against the pass. In the red zone, the Tar Heels' defense is 28th in efficiency.

North Carolina has done a good job protecting the football despite putting the ball in the air so often. They are 40th in the country in turnover differential. Unlike Miami, the Tar Heels have not hurt themselves with penalties. They rank 35th in the country in penalties per game.

Injury Report: PK R. Coe (lower body) is questionable. TE J. Randolph (lower body) and OL R. Grigsby (lower body) are out.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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One thing that separates North Carolina this year from their teams of the recent past is their ability to play defense. QB Mayes is a future top draft pick in the NFL and will produce points for the Heels. This year, however, the defense has held up its end of the bargain making Carolina a much more challenging team to play. They now get a crack at a Hurricanes team that will likely be reeling from an epic collapse at home against Georgia Tech last week. The Hurricanes' inability to execute a simple kneel-down dropped them from the ranks of the unbeaten and certainly changed the scope of this game a bit. In what should be a tightly contested game, the needle shifts to Miami's side thanks to the team's lack of penalties and the Hurricanes' mindset following a five-turnover performance against Georgia Tech. Miami makes far too many mental mistakes, raking 117th in penalties per game, in a game that features two teams that are otherwise close in most categories.  The Heels have shined against the spread this year as well, covering in four of five opportunities this year with the only non-cover coming against App State. I like Mayes to once again shine in the spotlight of a national television game on Saturday night.

Take UNC -3.5

Prediction: UNC -3.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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In college football, particularly in recent years, high-powered offenses tend to trump good defense. While both of these teams sport quality defenses, these are two of the best offenses in the country. North Carolina has scored 40 or more points in three of their last four games heading into this showdown. On the season, they have yet to score under 30 points. Prior to the Georgia Tech game, Miami had scored over 40 points in three straight games. Save for their five turnovers, it is likely the Hurricanes would have come close to that number against the Yellow Jackets as well. Expect a high-scoring affair in Carolina on Saturday night.

Take the over.

Prediction: Over 57

Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.