Formula 1: 2023 Season Future Odds

As the calendar flips from 2022-2023, were edging closer to the winter testing at the Sahkir Circuit from February 23-25th, with the Bahrain Grand Prix set to open the 2023 Formula 1 season on March 3-5, 2023. 

While we’re keeping an eye on each F1 team in full push mode to produce the best packages in time for shakedowns and testing, we’re busy focusing on Formula 1 futures and our picks for the 2023 season. 

With Insiders Betting Digest being your home to the inside track for motorsports betting previews, including F1 picks, MotoGP, WRC NASCAR Cup, Xfinity, and Truck series betting previews, we’ve been previewing various special betting F1 lines. 

This article focuses on the wider Formula 1 futures, with eight of the ten constructors included in these F1 2023 odds.

Formula 1 2023 Future Odds – Constructors’ Championship

For our Formula 1 futures betting preview and analysis, we need to review the F1 odds for the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships.

First, let’s review the Constructors’ Championship odds:

Notably, Haas and Williams are not included in these odds. 

While Haas could make a step forward and end up in the midfield pack, they are so far off the pace that it is highly unlikely for them to make such a staggering jump in performance over the winter break. 

As for Williams, they have descended to ultimate backmarker with a very unclear future after the departure of the internally controversial Jost Capito and FX Demaison, leaving Williams Racing without a team Principal and technical director. 

There is no need to even consider betting on Williams to win the Constructors’ Championship in the near future. 

Formula 1 2023 Season Future Betting Preview – Constructors’ Championship

In reality, if any Constructor listed in these Formula 1 futures odds below Ferrari wins the Constructors’ Championship, it will be a remarkable season and an upset for the ages.

Out of the bottom five teams, only McLaren and Alpine have realistic outside chances of winning the Constructors’ Championship.

Alpine has a very contentious driver pairing in Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly and power unit reliability issues to address.

McLaren has rookie driver Oscar Piastri partnering with Lando Norris and needs to improve on the unpredictable MCL-36 that Norris wasn’t happy with and ended Daniel Ricciardo’s time with McLaren to make a move toward the front of the grid.

Aston Martin could move toward the front but are still within their development plan and not expected to challenge for either Championship in 2023. Even with Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin’s driver lineup isn’t a World Championship pair with Lance Stroll beside him.

Alfa Romero/Sauber will be a more realistic option in 2026 when Alfa Romero is entirely replaced by Audi, while Honda power units and new driver Nick de Vries won’t be enough to help Alpha Tauri win any World Championship.

Red Bull (- 110)

The reigning double World Champions enter 2023 with the best starting base to build from. Still, with aerodynamic testing restrictions, that potential early season advantage may wither as Red Bull has to divest testing time away from 2023 upgrades to the 2024 car. 

How Red Bull manages their aerodynamic testing and upgrades will be critical to the teams’ World Championship chances in 2023 and 2024.

However, many of the features that made Red Bull so dominant in 2022 form the base of the 2023 car. Reliability, strategy, a rear suspension that works across any ride height or circuit configuration, an excellently designed aerodynamic package, and two-time World Champion Max Verstappen – all remain part of Red Bull’s starting package for 2023.

Red Bull developed but didn’t deploy a lighter-weight chassis in 2022. Undoubtedly, this chassis upgrade is one to watch for as it will make the Red Bull more agile and provide tenths of a second of lap time.

The lighter chassis could also help the handicapped Red Bull team manage the development war and not overspend to do so.

Mercedes (+135)

Everyone from Formula 1 fans, media, the paddock, and oddsmakers expects the return of Mercedes in 2023. 

The Mercedes W-13 couldn’t operate at the ride heights it was designed to, forcing Mercedes to run higher ride heights and larger wings, leading to a very draggy car. But Mercedes did progress and showed real signs of growth throughout the season.

Mercedes can also be more aggressive in strategy in 2023, having lost potential wins in the Spanish and Mexico City Grand Prix due to overly-cautious tire strategies.

We don’t know what side pod configuration Mercedes will come up with for 2024 or if the “zero-pods” will be replaced. Mercedes claim they found the problem and have worked to address it in the 2023 car.

One thing that could hurt Mercedes is what a potential championship fight does to its currently harmonious driver lineup. 

The last time Mercedes had two drivers competing for the World Championship, it resulted in the contentious, heated, and divisive rivalry between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg. 

For Mercedes to return to the Constructor’s Championship, they may need to navigate these turbulent waters, with Hamilton and George Russell expected to challenge for the Drivers’ World Championship.

Ferrari (+600)

Ferrari collapsed as the 2022 season progressed, as strategy and driver errors combined with power unit reliability issues destroyed Ferrari’s pre-season Championship potential.

Rumors from Marinello claim that Ferarri has solved the power unit reliability issues, worth a couple of tenths of a second in performance. 

But we’ve heard this repeatedly from Ferrari, yet Marinello remains the most pressure-filled and potentially toxic environment in the paddock. 

Strategy remains the same for Ferrari, which has been a chronic weakness at Marinello. Ferrari’s approach strategy needs to change in 2023. 

We shouldn’t be excited when Ferrari gets the strategy right; it’s expected from a front-running team to get the strategy right more often than not.

However, there might not be a better single-lap driver on the Formula 1 grid than Charles Leclerc, and on most circuits, the best place to win the race is from P1.

Ferrari also boasts potentially the best driver duo, as Carlos Sainz is good enough to win Grand Prix and sometimes push Leclerc. Ferrari has the driving tandem to bring home a Constructors’ Championship if the management and technical teams give them the best car and strategy possible.

Formula 1 2023 Season Future Betting Picks

Now that we have reviewed the Formula 1 futures let’s make our 2023 F1 picks.

Unless you are a hardcore McLaren or Aston Martin fan or having a laugh, no one is going to pick the bottom five teams in the Formula 1 futures odds. 

If Alpine or McLaren have radically improved enough to make the fight at the front of the grid a four-team fight, we’ll only know after winter testing. This is highly unlikely, but we’re favoring Alpine to be the team most likely to emerge from and sit atop the midfield in 2023.

That leaves us with the big three teams: Red Bull, Mercedes, and Ferrari.

The easy pick is to take Red Bull to win a second straight constructor’s Championship at -110.

Red Bull will start the 2023 season with the best package to build from. However, do not underestimate how much the aerodynamic restrictions could hurt Red Bull’s Constrcutors’ Championship bid as the season progresses.

However, Mercedes should be back and fighting for pole position and race wins every week.

Russell is likely the best of the three secondary drivers and will help Mercedes more over the season than Sainz or Pérez.

If Ferrari has actually fixed the power unit issues that plagued it and its customer teams throughout 2022, then we will have a real three-team battle at the front. Ferrari could be a great pick at +600.

But this is Ferrari, and we need to see the results before we wager on Ferrari to win its first Constructors’ Championship since 2008.

It’s a tough pick between Mercedes and Red Bull to win the 2023 Formula 1 Constructors’ Championship, especially with nothing known about the 2023 cars. This makes it easier to pick Red Bull.

However, our pick as of puclication is to ride the Mercedes hype train to the Constructors’ World Championship (+115).

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