Our F1 writers make predictions for the 2023 season

The 2023 Formula 1 season will get underway this weekend and anticipation is building for what we all hope will be a safe and exciting campaign.

Our F1 writers Phil Horton (PH), Fergal Walsh (FW), Taylor Powling (TP), Rob Kershaw (RK), Jordan Edwards (JE), Sam Tomlinson (ST) and Danielle van Wittmarschen (DVW) have opted to make predictions for the year ahead.

Who do we expect to be the surprise of the season?

PH: I hope either Aston Martin or Alpine can regularly challenge for podiums. That may be optimistic, but there is a confident aura around Aston Martin, while Alpine shirked quick laps during testing but was also encouraged by its potential. 

FW: Although he arrives in F1 relatively late into his career compared to other rookies, Nyck de Vries boasts vast experience and great success in various categories. He may well easily beat team-mate Yuki Tsunoda and start the conversation over a potential promotion to Red Bull for the 2025 campaign (when Sergio Perez is out of contract).

TP: It’s hard to look past Aston Martin. Based on pre-season testing the Silverstone outfit looks to have a car that could potentially challenge the established top order, at least early on. From where they were last season, it would represent a remarkable turnaround.

JE: Guanyu Zhou proved to be a confident and bold driver in 2022. While not in the fastest car on the grid, he was able to display some notable performances in what was his rookie season in F1. This year I think he will start to out-qualify teammate Valtteri Bottas on a consistent basis and finish in the points more times than not. 

RK: We need to caveat this with the fact that neither driver looked as though they were having a great time during testing, and there were clearly some niggly issues affecting the car. That being said, I will go with McLaren. Lando Norris managed a podium last season after a disappointing test – and an even worse opening round for that matter – but I reckon he and Oscar Piastri can get some good results this year, and perhaps even a win.

ST: Aston Martin has made huge gains over the winter break and look to be towards the sharp end of the pecking order. Looking back on last season, would we ever have expected Aston Martin to be in a fight with Mercedes and beyond in 2023? Not at all. If their testing performance continues, they will be the biggest surprise of the season, and even more so if they are fighting towards the front until Abu Dhabi.

DVW: Aston Martin are definitely looking like a strong contender for biggest surprise, but I will actually go with Williams. They won’t be fighting for the podium anytime soon, but their test looked pretty solid. If they manage to qualify better and capitalise on the mistakes of others, more regular points should be possible. 

Will Mercedes bounce back from its 2022 slump?

PH: They should do – but to what extent? At the moment the drivers aren’t looking at Bahrain as a potential race win but do expect the W14 to get there eventually. They should be stronger than how they started 2022 but aren’t making noises to suggest a title tilt is within reach.

FW: Mercedes’ pre-season form wasn’t trouble-free – but things are looking better than 12 months ago. At some stages of the early 2022 campaign it was fighting in the midfield, but the team now has a greater understanding of its concept, with two hungry drivers in place to deliver results.

TP: Testing suggested Mercedes are in much better shape than it was this time a year ago. However, the W14 still appeared to retain a handling imbalance, and it’s hard to see them fighting for the title against a strong Red Bull team in its current form. But, nevertheless, a return to scoring more wins should be expected from the German manufacturer in 2023.

JE: Mercedes have committed themselves, once again, to a possible flawed design for 2023. While they supposedly have another design in the works if their current one fails, the team are aware of the likelihood that they won’t be keeping up with Red Bull this season. If they’re lucky, Mercedes will be able to match the pace of Ferrari. Despite this slightly dreary outlook, a drawn-out 23-race season means that the team have time to make adjustments and claw-back points.

RK: Of course they will. You could even argue that they already had done by the end of last year when George Russell led home Lewis Hamilton for a one-two in Brazil. And do you win eight constructors’ titles on the bounce without having the tenacity to pull through times of adversity? Absolutely not, so the German side will be just fine this year.

ST: Mercedes was a hard team to judge in testing having had a difficult second day with setup struggles and an early end to the day when Russell ground to a stop on circuit. We saw a rejuvenated Mercedes towards the end of the 2022 season, and they have every chance of returning to their former glory. Whether or not they will be in the title fight is highly dependent on how long it takes them to get on top of the W14 and its development path.

DVW: I don’t see them returning to championship contention quite yet, both Red Bull as well as Ferrari still seem to be too far ahead. I’m expecting them to be in the fight for race wins more regularly, but not yet weekly. But they are Mercedes, they have won eight consecutive titles. By the end of the year, they should have at least closed down the gap to Ferrari.

Will Piastri live up to the hype?

PH: It’s a tough gig. Lando Norris is rapid and embedded firmly within McLaren. Piastri is four years behind Norris’ knowledge from the outset – and McLaren is not in a strong position entering 2023. Where the MCL60 stands will play a large influence. Long-term, yes, Piastri will show his ability. Short-term I fear it’ll be tough. 

FW: Piastri will be the most scrutinised rookie in almost a decade, given his contractual dispute last year and his stellar junior career record. McLaren will be hoping for an improvement on Daniel Ricciardo, and Piastri has all the hallmarks of a driver that can achieve great success in F1. Paired against Lando Norris will be no easy task, however, and it would be surprising if he beat the Briton this year. But he certainly can impress in other ways and showcase why he was so sought after for a race seat.

TP: It will be difficult for Piastri to stand out alongside one of the best-performing drivers on the grid in recent times in Lando Norris. But providing he is closer to the Brit than Daniel Ricciardo was the Australian can be deemed to have had a successful rookie campaign.

JE: Pre-season testing was difficult for the McLaren and there was the feeling that they hadn’t made much progress from last year’s MCL36. McLaren will be bringing upgrades to the car in the approaching rounds so there is still some hope that the Woking-based squad can retain the ‘best of the rest’ crown. If the car is set up in Piastri’s favour, he will likely be able to keep up with team-mate Norris but if the team continues to falter,  this will impact the rookie’s development.

RK: How many times have we seen drivers who excelled in Formula 2 come to Formula 1 and struggle? Some get to the pinnacle of motorsport and find out that they simply do not have what it takes. If I had to leave the fence, I’ll be ever the optimist and say that the young Australian will come through this extremely difficult first challenge.

ST: Oscar is a highly talented young driver and he has shown that throughout his junior career. Of course, it will take him time to acclimatise to Formula 1 but he has the maturity and professionalism to do so with ease. Piastri will be a strong driver for McLaren but for him to live up to the hype created, McLaren will need to build from a disappointing pre-season test.  

DVW: Piastri is coming into a McLaren that seems to be struggling and declining. Points will be harder to come by than both Piastri and McLaren would like, but the young Australian has what it takes to stay close to Norris and maybe even beat him on occasion. 

Who is under the most pressure?

PH: I think the midfield group of teams with long-term title ambitions. Yes, none of them are looking at 2023 – or 2024 – as championship opportunities, but the likes of Alpine, McLaren and Aston Martin all need to display tangible progress to prove they’re on the right path. If not, then the scrutiny will amplify, because excuses will wear thin.   

FW: Yuki Tsunoda. There is a large pool of Red Bull juniors waiting in the wings for a promotion to F1. Entering his third year in the sport, Tsunoda to makes a leap forward this year to demonstrate to Helmut Marko why he deserves to be retained beyond the current campaign.

TP: Either of the AlphaTauri drivers. Both Nyck de Vries and Yuki Tsunoda will understand that a failure to beat the other this season could lead to them suffering an exit from the sport entirely, particularly with six Red Bull Junior drivers competing in Formula 2.

JE: Yuki Tsunoda. The AlphaTauri driver is entering his third season in Formula 1 and has no excuses for lacklustre performances. He will be well aware that there is a large squad of Red Bull juniors waiting to take his seat if he can’t perform, with six juniors in Formula 2 this year alone. Tsunoda will be hoping to be stepping up to a leading role at AlphaTauri despite being only 20 years old and he will also be hoping to curb the string of penalties and mistakes that plagued him last season.

RK: Yuki Tsunoda. If Nyck de Vries, who so brilliantly scored points at a moment’s notice for Williams last season, out-performs him, I feel that his time is done.  Last year was an almighty improvement on 2021 for the Japanese, but he needs to find something else to convince Dr Helmut Marko and Franz Tost that he deserves to stick around going into 2024.  

ST: Following the sacking of Mattia Binotto, Ferrari has to be the team most under pressure. 2023 was the season Ferrari had targeted to be competing for the championship and there are certainly a lot of issues that need to be ironed out this season from last.

DVW: Yuki Tsunoda. He is now the more experienced driver at AlphaTauri and will need to show consistency. Secondly, Sergio Perez. His contract may run until the end of 2024, but there will always be a lot of pressure on that second Red Bull seat. The team will have plenty of opportunities to look elsewhere.

Who will win the world title?

PH: Max Verstappen. Long before Abu Dhabi.

FW: Max Verstappen and Red Bull have been in formidable form across the last 12 months, and all the indications from pre-season testing suggest that it has not lost any of that pace or confidence. It looks as though it will be a mammoth task for any party to halt Verstappen from taking his third F1 title.

JE: Max Verstappen.

TP: He has unquestionably been the best driver across the past two seasons and the RB19 seems like it could be even better than its dominant predecessor. Considering the Dutchman swept to a record-breaking 15 wins in 2022, that prompts an ominous sign for the chasing pack. Therefore, it’s hard to look past Verstappen making it three titles on the bounce.

RK: Sorry to be boring. Max Verstappen. We are truly witnessing greatness in the making with this young man, whether you love him or loath him.

ST: Max Verstappen should be a safe bet for the 2023 championship. The RB19 enjoyed a seamless test free of any reliability issues and I would be surprised by anything other than a third successive title for the Dutchman. Verstappen has proven to be a strong team leader over the past few seasons, and the version of Max we have seen of late looks to be unstoppable. 

DVW: Red Bull and Verstappen just seem inevitable right now. The team and driver are in perfect harmony with one another, and unless they get their upgrades throughout the season all wrong, I don’t see that changing. 

One bold prediction

PH: Fernando Alonso ends his 10-year wait for an F1 victory in one of those chaotic GPs we haven’t had for a while. Wouldn’t that be super? 

FW: Fernando Alonso will return to the top step of the podium for the first time in 10 years.

TP: Norris to get on the podium at some stage. The revised McLaren package will be a noticeable step forward and Norris, as the best midfield driver of the past few seasons, will take advantage of a chaotic race.

JE: Formula 1 simply will not live up to the hype that fans have come to expect in recent years and F1 will have to try hard to keep fans interested in a 23-race season.

RK: Felipe Drugovich, who will surely be drafted in for this weekend’s Bahrain Grand Prix to replace the injured Lance Stroll, will score a podium.

ST: Aston Martin will win at least one race in 2023.

DVW: Fernando Alonso will be back on the top step of the podium… within the first five races.