Game 4 Maple Leafs vs. Lightning playoff picks and odds: Tampa should fill the net at home

A massive Game 4 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning is brewing Monday night.

The pregame narrative: Tampa watched a victory slip away late on Saturday, and now the Bolts need a win to avoid moving to the brink of elimination. We don’t expect a ton of scoring, but the Lightning should reach a modest goal total against the Leafs.

Check out our Maple Leafs vs. Lightning picks for Game 4 of their first-round playoff series on April 24.

NHL odds as of 3:15 p.m. on 04/23/2023.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning picks

Best Bet: Lightning over 3 goals (-127)

There’s certainly a chance the Lightning push this line, but we feel good about them scoring at least three goals on Monday night.

Tampa was arguably the best offensive outfit at home this season, averaging an NHL-best 4.00 goals per game at Amalie Arena.

Based on Natural Stat Trick‘s per 60 metrics, the Bolts ranked fourth in xG (3.74), first in scoring chances (37.5) and second in high-danger chances (16.5).

Plenty of attention will be on the performance of Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, but Tampa’s offence at home could be its real edge in Game 4. The Lightning have scored three-plus goals in four of six games in this season-long series, as well as six of their past seven home games.

Key stat: Tampa Bay has three or more goals in 35 of 42 games (83.3%) at Amalie Arena this year.

Quick picks

Under 6 goals - regular time (-104): If not for Ryan O’Reilly’s last-minute shot trickling past Vasilevskiy on Saturday, this under would’ve cashed. Instead, it pushed.

We’ve now seen under 6 regulation goals push or cash in five of the past eight meetings between these teams — dating back to last year’s playoff matchup.

Yes, there were a couple of barn-burners to open this series. But things should tighten up as we move into crunch time.

Lightning over 1 goals - Period 2 (-103): Tampa has a strong trend of second period scoring that we’re looking to tail for Monday’s matchup.

The Bolts have scored in the second period in eight of their past nine games, as well as five of six games against the Leafs this year.

Tampa’s +215 price to go over 1.5 second-period goals is fun to look at, but we’ll stick with the safer option here because it still sits close to even money.