NASCAR Cup Series At Talladega: Odds, Predictions, Best Bets

After capturing two of the past three NASCAR Cup Series races, Kyle Larson and the No. 5 Chevrolet team is beginning to look like its 2021 version. Two seasons ago, Larson and Co. captured 10 races and the pit crew’s clutch Stage 3 stop propelled Larson to the Cup championship.

Larson and Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron are the lone two pilots to earn two wins this season, but as Byron has slipped the past month, Larson is surging.

Can Byron rebound at the 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway?

Can Larson adjust to the wide-open racing?

Below, we’ll preview the top storylines heading into Sunday’s GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, go over the odds, and give our best bets for the 10th race on the NASCAR calendar.

2 wins in 3 races. @KyleLarsonRacin is white hot! �� pic.twitter.com/QNyIlgXUz4

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) April 16, 2023

2023 GEICO 500 Storylines

• Will Chase Elliott make team owner Rick Hendrick forget about Josh Berry? The substitute driver recorded two top-10 finishes in five outings while Elliott recovered from his broken leg. Berry, an Xfinity Series regular, improved each week. But so did Elliott during his return Sunday at Martinsville. After driving as far back as 31st, Elliott rallied on the last run for a 10th-place finish.
• Will the real William Byron stand up, er, sit down – and drive? His style of racing fits Martinsville Speedway, making his 23rd-place finish last Sunday a curiosity. He’s in the Cup playoffs, but Byron needs to display the consistency he did during his 2017 Xfinity Series championship campaign.
• Is Martin Truex Jr. close to winning his first race since the fall race at Richmond Raceway in 2021? The 2017 Cup Series champion had a chance Sunday during the NOCO 400, but not really. Truex’s top-3 finish was his season’s best run, but Larson’s Chevrolet distanced itself from Truex’s Toyota late.

Fast Thoughts after Martinsville: Why Chase Elliott’s 10th-place finish is a good sign for the weeks ahead. pic.twitter.com/pL4OckBwhE

— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) April 17, 2023

GEICO 500 Driver Odds

Here is an early look at the top drivers’ odds from one of the top online sportsbooks:

*Odds current at time of publication

He called his shot this week. @dennyhamlin is starting a run. No. 11 to the point! pic.twitter.com/rOgcO8xOcA

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) April 16, 2023

GEICO 500 Predictions and Picks

Here are our best NASCAR bets for the GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway:

Ryan Blaney (+1100)

Is it time for Blaney’s 55-race winless streak to end? An early-week betting favorite, Blaney proved he can win at Talladega, capturing back-to-back races trophies during the 2019 fall race and 2020 spring event.

Denny Hamlin (+1400)

Prior to 2021, Hamlin has nearly averaged a 10-place finish at Talladega, including a 2020 three-overtime victory. Hamlin’s last trip to Victory Lane came last spring at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Will his skid end Sunday?

Chase Briscoe (+3000)

Is it time to think of Briscoe as a consistent contender? The No. 14 Ford pilot finished last season with top-10 finishes in seven of the final eight Cup events and enters Talladega with consecutive top-five finishes.