Braves vs Phillies Odds, Picks, & Predictions

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13 September 2023

Braves vs Phillies Odds, Picks, & Predictions

If tonight's game is half as good as yesterday's, fans and bettors will be in for a treat. Spencer Strider toes the rubber for the visiting Braves and our free MLB betting picks expect his domination of the Phillies to continue here tonight.

The Atlanta Braves will try to clinch the NL East title for a sixth consecutive year when they visit the Philadelphia Phillies for the finale of their series on Wednesday night.

Atlanta has won two of the first three games in this series, including a 7-6 extra-inning win on Tuesday. Philadelphia still finds itself in excellent shape to make the postseason, as it holds the first wild card position in the National League.

The Braves will turn the ball over to Spencer Strider in tonight’s game. We’ll examine the MLB odds and whether the young righty can bring home a divisional title for his team in our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Phillies on September 13.

Braves vs Phillies odds

Braves vs Phillies predictions

After a sterling rookie campaign in 2022, the Atlanta Braves expected big things out of Spencer Strider in his sophomore season. The 24-year-old has come through, as he currently leads the majors in wins and strikeouts, while also posting the best FIP in the National League. Even a couple of shaky starts as of late have done nothing to take the shine off of Strider’s season, though they might sink his Cy Young odds.

Strider has emerged as one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in all of baseball, averaging 13.9 punchouts per nine innings. In two starts against the Philadelphia Phillies this year, he’s been even more impressive, putting up a 2-0 record with a 2.25 ERA while striking out 18 batters in just 12 innings.

That’s not all that surprising, as the Phillies are one of the higher strikeout teams in the majors. Philadelphia batters have gone down on strikes over 1,300 times this season, good for an average of 9.08 times per game.

It’s not hard to see where I’m going with this. Strider should be able to record plenty of strikeouts on Wednesday night, regardless of whether the Phillies can find a way to touch him up for some runs. The only real question is how big that strikeout total will climb.

One good sign for Strider is that he’ll be well-rested. He hasn’t pitched in a week and only went 2 2/3 innings last Wednesday against the St. Louis Cardinals. Notably, even in that outing, he struck out five batters in that abbreviated performance. Strider got some additional rest not because of injury, but due to an illness that was bouncing around the Atlanta clubhouse.

That means we’re looking at a well-rested Strider who has already struck out nine batters each time he has faced the Phillies this year. He has also recorded at least nine strikeouts in 11 of his last 14 starts.

Sportsbooks are setting the strikeout total for Strider at an aggressive 8.5 number, but even that doesn’t feel like enough for this matchup. With no reason to think that his recent struggles are anything but a bump in the road, I’m backing the Over on Strider’s strikeout prop tonight.

My best bet: Spencer Strider Over 8.5 strikeouts (+105 at PointsBet)

Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay

Strider Over 8.5 strikeouts

Braves moneyline

Under 9 runs

I’m building my entire same-game parlay tonight around a bounce-back performance from Strider. That starts with my main expectation, which is that he’ll fill up the scorecard with Ks tonight. That means taking the Over on his strikeout prop at a total of 8.5.

If Strider has a big game, then the Braves should be able to pull out a win. Atlanta will want to win tonight to get a divisional clincher as early as possible, and they have advantages both in their lineup and with Strider on the mound. I’m taking the Braves on the moneyline.

Finally, let’s back the Under at nine runs flat. The Phillies are putting Cristopher Sanchez on the mound, who should be able to put up solid resistance against the Atlanta lineup. Combined with a big game for Strider, we can expect a reasonably low-scoring game that hits the Under.

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Braves vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Braves opened tonight’s game as a -180 favorite at most books, with some offering even longer odds on Atlanta. That number has shortened a bit, with the average line around Braves -170 as of noon on Wednesday. You can find -160 on Atlanta, or take +150 on the Phillies if you shop around.

The Braves have been an excellent moneyline team this year. Atlanta has outpaced even its lofty expectations to make more than 13 units for backers in 2023. The Phillies have come up just a little short for bettors, losing about 3.5 units on the moneyline this year.

While the odds on the Braves aren’t particularly enticing, I still think they are the smart play on the moneyline. That’s especially true as the number has gotten more reasonable over the course of the day. Atlanta has the more potent lineup, Strider is the better pitcher, and he has found success against the Phillies in the past. I’m leaning towards the Braves.

The Over/Under on this game opened at 8.5 runs and has since risen to nine runs flat across the board. The Over is largely seen as the favorite here, with -115 available on the Over, while you can get as good as +102 on the Under.

The Braves lineup has powered them above the number most of this season, with the Over going 80-63 in Atlanta games. The Phillies have been close to neutral, with the Under holding a 69-65 advantage when they play.

With two good pitchers on the mound tonight, nine runs is a lot to expect even with the Braves lineup on the field. While I might be inclined to avoid the total if this number was trading at the same odds on both sides, I’m very interested in the plus number that’s being offered at some books. I’m leaning towards the Under if you can get at least even money on that side.

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Trend to know

Spencer Strider has struck out at least nine batters in 11 of his past 14 starts overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies

Braves vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Spencer Strider (16-5, 3.83 ERA): After nearly winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2022, the big question for Strider was whether he would suffer a sophomore slump. For the most part, the 24-year-old has avoided that as he has become the preeminent strikeout pitcher in the majors today. He also leads the majors in wins and has the best FIP (2.89) in the National League. Last time out, Strider struggled, allowing six runs over just 2.2 innings against the Cardinals.

Cristopher Sanchez (2-3, 3.26 ERA): In his first full year as a starting pitcher, Sanchez has proven to be a reliable option for the Phillies. The left-handed starter has thrown just 80 innings this year, but he has put up an impressive 1.038 WHIP during that time. His control has been impeccable, allowing just 1.5 walks per nine innings, though he has been vulnerable to the longball, allowing 13 homers this year. In his last start, Sanchez shut out the Miami Marlins on four hits over five innings of work last Friday.