Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the 3M Open
Golf betting tips: 3M Open final round
2pts win J.T. Poston at 13/2 (General)
In posting rounds of 63-64-66 Lee Hodges has set a new tournament 54-hole record and opened up a five-shot lead on the field at the 3M Open. He may also be on the brink of becoming the first player to win on the PGA Tour while having no dedicated page on Wikipedia.
If that suggests the Alabama-born and University of Alabama-educated Hodges has come right out of left field it isn’t really the case. He was a winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020, graduated from the second tier in 2021, had his only 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour early in 2022 (when posting a career-best third at the American Express), qualified for the FedEx Cup Play-offs last year and was only one back of the lead at this stage a few weeks ago in the Memorial Tournament.
And yet we all know that winning for the first time is, most commonly, a fiendishly tricky business. Hodges has been sensational through those first three rounds, leading the field for Strokes Gained Approach (7.378) and ranking third for Putting (6.577). He’s those five shots clear of J.T. POSTON, six ahead of Tony Finau, Aaron Baddeley is seven behind, and the rest of the field eight back. Hodges is priced 1/3.
As with all pre-final round leaders, he needs a plan and an approach for Sunday. He’s going for laid back.
“I have nothing to lose,” he insisted. “I’m out here playing with house money. I have a job next year on the PGA TOUR (he ranked 74th in the FedEx Cup coming into the week). This is just icing on the cake. I honestly don’t think I’ll be that nervous tonight. I’ll hang out with my wife, we’ll go do something fun. I mean it’s just golf at the end of the day. I’m lucky to be here.”
Having such a significant advantage is new to him. In fact, he doesn’t recall being this far clear in any kind of tournament. He also added: “It’s going to be hard tomorrow. The Postman (Poston) is going to play great, Tony Finau, unbelievable golfers behind me. I’m going to have to keep making birdies. I’m going to stay aggressive like I have been all week because the greens have been soft. We made a real conscious effort this week to commit to every shot we’ve hit and not get ahead of ourselves. When I’m walking down the fairway, all I’m thinking about is the next shot I’m going to hit. I’ve done a really good job of not getting ahead of myself and I think I will tomorrow as well.”
There’s the nub: Hodges has had a brilliant mindset this week and now it faces the ultimate challenge.
The four editions of the tournament have also witnessed contrasting experiences for leaders at this stage: the first two champions were tied for the lead with 18 holes to play, whereas the last two 54-hole pace-setters had very nasty Sundays. Cameron Tringale led by one in 2021, carded 74 and finished T16th. Last year Scott Piercy led by four and crashed home in 76 blows. He ended the week fourth.
Poston, who is happy with his ball-striking and keen for more putts to drop, said of Hodges’ position: “It’s not easy. My last win on the John Deere I slept on the lead a few days in a row. It’s an uncomfortable feeling, but it’s exciting at the same time. This is why we play, this is why we’re out here, our goal is to win. Lee’s no different. I know he’s chasing his first win and it’s probably only a matter of time till he gets it done out here. A five-shot lead is a five-shot lead. This golf course yields birdies, my goal is to put some pressure on early and see where we end up at the end of the day."
As he notes, he went wire-to-wire in his last win but before that he thrashed a final round 62 to turn a three-shot deficit into victory. He’s 13/2.
Finau has an even more vivid experience of being in this sort of situation. Last year he was five back of Scott Piercy at this point and a 67 was enough to pinch the win after the leader made a triple bogey, among other mistakes, on the 14th.
“Pretty similar position, a handful of shots back,” he acknowledged on Saturday. “It’s definitely something I can come back from. Last year was pretty crazy. There’s a lot of water in play on the last few holes. I don’t know that any lead is safe.” The six-time PGA Tour winner is 8/1.
And then there is Baddeley, father of six kids who are all in town this week and most of them stood behind him during his post-round interview, a scene of Brady Bunch-style wholesomeness. He’s been scrapping and scraping for playing opportunities this season. He has two top 10s for the season and a third would earn a start next week and tie up his card for next year. A really good Sunday would get him into the top 70 on the rankings which means progress, in a fortnight, to the Play-offs.
“That would be pretty awesome,” he said. “It would be a little bit easier on the family, a little easier on my wife. To play well and have a chance to push into the top 70 is pretty special.” He’s the clear outsider of the top quartet at 50/1.
Hodges might well pull off the trick of taking this experience easily. Good luck to him. The strategy might also make him a little unprepared if something happens to slug him with the reality of what he is on the brink of achieving.
Who can pounce? Finau’s four wins in the last 12 months is tempting but such a repeat feels a little unlikely (or will that be the prompt?).
Poston could be the man. He plays alongside Hodges and can apply pressure. He’s also been getting involved at the top end of the leaderboard in recent weeks so has fresh memories of what to do (and what not to do) – he was sixth in both the John Deere Classic and Scottish Open. And then there’s that 62 he closed out his first win with. A little warmth in that putter and he can test Hodges to the line.
Posted at 0935 BST on 30/07/23
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