In-play golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the final round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run
Golf betting tips: The John Deere Classic final round
1pt e.w. Chris Kirk at 20/1 (General)
1pt e.w. JT Poston at 33/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
With 18 holes to play of this year’s John Deere Classic the tournament is pretty much running as expected with a handful of occasional PGA Tour winners vying for the title alongside a sprinkling of golfers in search a first triumph.
Leading the way is Brendon Todd on 16-under 197 after rounds of 66-65-66. It’s nearly four years since he last tasted success at this level but he has done so three times. He inched one shot clear of the field with a 45-foot birdie putt at 16 and a 12-foot par save at the last.
His nearest pursuers on 15-under are Alex Smalley, Denny McCarthy and Adam Schenk. The latter two are both seeking a first win on the PGA Tour, have come mighty close this season already and will be desperately hoping they can use that experience to get over the winning line.
Peter Kuest is alone in fifth on 14-under, followed by a seven-way share of sixth on 13-under, just three back of that lead, that comprises Jonas Blixt, Chris Kirk, defending champion JT Poston, former champion Lucas Glover, Kevin Roy, Mark Hubbard, William Mouw and Ben Coley’s pre-tournament selection Cameron Young.
Todd was in an understandably good mood after his finish. “It feels great,” he said. "You always want to be the guy being chased. Now it's just head down and make birdies. Anybody within three shots of the lead is looking to go as low as they can. There’s certainly no defence for me tomorrow. If I have a wedge in my hand, I’m going for it. The winner can come from anywhere, so I’m treating it like I’m in the bunch trying to shoot the lowest score."
The 37-year-old has four top 10s this season but in none of them was he genuinely in with the pre-final round tilt at the title – his best of second in the AT&T Pebble Beach came courtesy of a fast-finishing 65. Two of his PGA Tour wins came after he was holding (or sharing) the 54-hole lead but the last three times he’s been in this position he’s stumbled. In all three he was flying in low-scoring conditions and then failed to break 72 on Sunday. In the latter two examples he carded 75s and ended the week outside the top 10.
Smalley is 2-for-2 at making the cut at the venue and a final round 66 last year earned him T16th. He’s yet to win on the top two tiers and this is just his third experience of being within three shots of the third round lead. On the first occasion he was third at last year’s Canadian Open and finished T21st. He was then two back and sixth at last year’s RSM Classic before hanging around for fifth.
McCarthy has been knocking on the door for a while and, moreover, has done so on the course and very recently too. Twelve months ago he was also second with 18 holes to play before a level-par 71 left him sixth. At the start of last month he looked set to earn a first PGA Tour win at the Memorial but a late error in a fine performance left him in a play-off that Viktor Hovland triumphed in. Last time out he led the Travelers Championship through 36 holes before slipping back to seventh.
He’s saying all the right things about his wait for the first win. “I know it’s going to come,” he insisted after his third round. “I get this question asked a lot. It’s a good thing. I’m playing a lot of good golf and I keep putting myself in this spot. A lot of the top guys out here make winning look really easy, but it’s really not. Things have to go your way on top of playing really good golf, and it just hasn’t quite matched up for me yet, but I know it’s coming."
Schenk is in a very similar spot. He, too, has come close at Deere Run: he was one blow back at this stage in 2019, when a closing 70 left him sixth, and third at halfway in 2021 before landing fourth. This season he pretty much led the Valspar Championship all week until, like McCarthy, a wonky drive at the last left him second. He also shared the 54-hole lead at the Schwab Challenge ahead of being denied in extra holes by Emiliano Grillo. Since then he has been seventh at both the Memorial and last week in Detroit.
“In a sense it’s not up to me if I win,” he suggested after a third round that took a while to get going. “I will go out and play the best I can. If someone shoots another 62, they’ll probably win. If I shoot 62, then I’ll probably win. If I have some great things happen, then I’ll have a great chance. If not, that’s okay too. We’ll learn from it. I just focus on myself and I think that’s what’s propelled me recently to more success. Just blocking out a lot of the noise. I’m pretty good at that. I keep my head down. A little bit of a loner."
Kuest is riding a wave at the moment and one which has, bar a Sunday disaster, already reaped reward. He has no PGA Tour card but T14th in the Byron Nelson Championship, T57th at the Canadian Open and fourth in last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic had him needing T76th or better this week to land Special Temporary Membership.
The leader Todd holds favouritism on 7/2, McCarthy is 4/1 in places, Schenk and Smalley 11/2, with Kuest a standout 18/1 with bet365.
McCarthy is in the rare position of hitting a lot of greens and good putters love these greens. He is one of those and if he continues to give himself so many looks he has a great shot at breaking the duck.
Chasers have a good record in this event, however. It comes with having a field for whom getting into contention is a big opportunity allied to a course that is set fair for birdies – folk just off the pace can apply early pressure on the leaders. Indeed, two of the last five winners, and four of the last 10, were at least four shots back with 18 holes to play.
CHRIS KIRK and JT POSTON aren’t even that – they’re three back. The former is a five-time winner on the PGA Tour, most recently earlier this season in the Honda Classic. He rediscovered that form with T14th last week and has maintained it this week. He has something of a free shot at the win with less pressure than those around him.
Ditto Poston who carded a final round 62 when claiming the first of his two PGA Tour wins at the 2019 Wyndham Championship. At the tournament’s media day he cast his mind back to going wire-to-wire last year and joked that: “Sleeping on a lead is not easy and doing it every day was a challenge. I’d be okay with someone else going low early and then catching them. That would be ideal.” He’s got the opportunity he wanted and he’s up to taking it.
I have both he and Kirk a little over-priced, at 33/1 and 20/1 respectively. The pair are staying in the same house this week, along with McCarthy and also Sepp Straka and Greyson Sigg who are just another shot back on 12-under. Kirk and Poston have it in them to win bragging rights.
Posted at 0952 BST on 09/07/23
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