Golfbet Insider: Butterfield Bermuda Championship
If you’ve ever wondered if my opinion changes after preview material has been published, the answer is sometimes. Every analyst and prognosticator consumes as much information as possible, but with a finite period of time in advance of a tournament and a series of contributions catered to specific purposes in the interim, the objective is to maximize sharing as much as possible expeditiously.
Born from that process is a new section in the Golfbet Insider that I’m introducing this week: "Pull Quote."
Quite simply, and as the disclaimer in it expresses, it consists of remarks by a golfer during his pre-tournament Q&A with the media assembled. My Power Rankings always publishes before Q&A sessions, so Pull Quote grants me the opportunity to dive deeper into whatever I find to be relevant for the tournament in the interim.
Please review the first edition below. Then, if you’re compelled, respond to me on X, publicly or privately, with your opinion, feedback and whatever else you’d like to share.
Thanks as always for your loyalty and communication, gang.
NOTE: Because golfers who appear in my Power Rankings on Monday often are scheduled to meet with the media onsite after it publishes, this space is reserved to circle back on commentary relevant to the analysis. It can be specific to the golfer and/or to a broader perspective.
Adam Scott (+170 = Top 10) … Even though he’s a first-timer in the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, the Aussie is No. 10 in my Power Rankings and in my lineup in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. However, he’s hardly a stranger to Port Royal Golf Course. It was in October of 2013 when he prevailed at the PGA Grand Slam of Golf contested here. In his pre-tournament meeting with the onsite media this week, he was asked about that victory and his impression of the test upon arrival.
“The course is very much what I remember it and, you know, [I’m] really just going to spend the next couple days getting used to the condition of the golf course, the grass, the speed of the greens. There's a lot of movement on this terrain here and I think some subtleties on the green you've just got to pay attention to a little bit. It seems soft, so I'm sure the scoring's going to be pretty good whether the wind blows or not. I think it's helpful around here if you strike the ball well because it's hard scrambling a lot out of the rough, and with the wind blowing, I think that feels like home a bit as well. Certainly enjoy playing this kind of resort-style, tropical weather [setting] that feels a bit more like home to me.”
Adam Scott
My take: Affirmation of what we know about the setup and reception of the turf never hurts, but salvaging par from the rough isn’t as tough as he thinks it is. Port Royal has slotted comfortably inside the top-half easiest of all courses on the PGA TOUR in terms of scrambling from the rough in all four previous editions. That he correlates the vibe to what’s familiar in his homeland also never hurts, but that he’s the favorite at +1600 is respectful of who he is than how he’s been performing of late, thus my retreat into the prop.
Odds were sourced on Wednesday, Nov. 8, at 4 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.
Ryan Palmer (+175 = Top 20) … Rose to 136th in the FedExCup with a season-best T5 last week. When he was in contention more often, he could patch into a reliable driver for weeks before losing the signal, but it was his irons that set the stage at El Cardonal at Diamante. He ranked second in greens in regulation on the massive targets. Even though this is his tournament debut, this prop is tasty given his knack for connecting strong outings. Should he fall short of cracking the top 125 in the FedExCup, he has a pair of options for fully exempt status in 2024. The 47-year-old could burn a career earnings exemption (currently 33rd all-time) or settle on a one-time spot in the reshuffle category for having cashed at least 300 times in his career (315 to date to be exact). J.J. Henry and John Senden have used the latter since it was introduced a few years ago. Incidentally, Palmer has been open and his typically jovial self about his experience during the FedExCup Fall on PGA TOUR’s YouTube series, “The Turn,” so check that out if you’re not already a viewer.
NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on X if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.
Mark Hubbard (+138 = Top 20) … He’s 63rd in the FedExCup and needs 40 points to threaten The Next 10. That means he needs a top 20 in one attempt, so our target is his target. He’s had nine of those in 2023, including a pair to open the FedExCup Fall, so it’s a bonus that there’s plus-value on it relative to this field. He’s logged 10 scores in competition at Port Royal, including a career-low 63 in the second round two years ago. He’s balanced throughout his bag, so he can handle wind that freshens.
Doug Ghim (+110 = Top 20) … Man, these odds are much lower than what I was expecting, but hand it to the administrators and the algorithms for understanding why it’s sensible to play it safe. He’s fifth on the PGA TOUR in ball-striking and inside the top 40 in par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring, yet he’s continued to live on the edge of status due to inconsistent putting. Case in point, he’s 117th in the FedExCup, so he’s not inside the leather as it concerns retaining his card, but he’s managed that spot despite the absence of a top 10 all season. Instead, six top 20s, including a pair in the FedExCup Fall, have led the way. Just 1-for-3 at Port Royal but the payday was a T14 in 2020.
NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.
• PARLAY: Ryan Palmer, Vince Whaley and Dylan Wu (+135 = All to Make the Cut)
• Jonathan Byrd (+250 = Top 40)
• Russell Knox (+120 = Top 40)
• Kelly Kraft (+130 = Top 40)
• Davis Riley (+240 = Miss the Cut)
• Camilo Villegas (+350 = Top South American)
Trevor Werbylo … Didn’t get a tee in the ground at last week’s World Wide Technology Championship because of a sore back. Needless to say, it’s awful timing given that he’s 190th in the FedExCup, so he needs a solo second in Bermuda just to threaten the top 125. His next top 25 on the PGA TOUR will be his first.
Mackenzie Hughes … Last week’s T7 secured a spot in The Next 10. At 53rd in the FedExCup, the Canadian can book travel to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational.
K.H. Lee … Although he cashed in both of his previous starts at Port Royal, neither went for a top 55, so I didn’t love the fit, anyway. That’s a common refrain for the 32-year-old whose fantasy value is strongest in the long-term. He’s 76th in the FedExCup but will remain in the winners category through at least 2024.
Cameron Champ … First break of the FedExCup Fall. He’s 4-for-5 with a pair of top 20s in the series. Although he’s 128th in the FedExCup, he’s fully exempt through 2024.
Will Gordon … With top 25s in his last two starts, he’s 96th in the FedExCup and poised to be fully exempt again in 2024, this time without the pressures of the reshuffle. It’s kind of too bad, at least concerning his fit for Port Royal. His precision from tee to green would be rewarded again – he’s 2-for-2 in the tournament – so it’d have been fun to piggyback his current momentum.
Carson Young … While so many slotted 100-125 entering last week’s antepenultimate stop of the FedExCup Fall ended up tumbling 4-5 spots, he climbed to 97th with a solo ninth. He’s not going to be the Rookie of the Year, but it doesn’t mean that it hasn’t been a successful foray.
Chad Ramey … Manufactured a quiet but useful second half of the season to sit 114th in the FedExCup, so he’s this close to securing an exemption into THE PLAYERS, but he’s been fully exempt in the winners category through at least 2024 since his breakthrough victory at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2022.
Tyler Duncan … Consecutive top 20s in October have him propped at 102nd in the FedExCup, but a pair of third-place finishes early in 2023 laid the foundation for his seventh consecutive season with a PGA TOUR card.
Aaron Baddeley … He’d have garnered serious attention because he finished T6 here last year, but he’s 103rd in the FedExCup, so the 42-year-old has earned the break. That’s actually an understatement considering that he played this season on Past Champion status. In fact, his position in the FedExCup allowed him to take a pass on the Sanderson Farms Championship a month ago because he rose comfortably into the 78-man field of the no-cut ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP where he finished T21.
RECAP: World Wide Technology Championship
SLEEPERS
Golfer (recommended bet) = Result
• Chris Gotterup (+240 = Top 20) = MC
• Michael Kim (+250 = Top 20) = T23
• Kelly Kraft (+140 = Top 40) = 71st
• *Nate Lashley (+333 = Top 20) = T10
• *Matti Schmid (+120 = Top 40) = T38
GOLFBET INSIDER
Bet = Result
• *WILD CARD: Justin Suh (+320 = Top 10) = 4th
• ALSO STARRING: Chris Kirk (+320 = Group C lowest score: 72 holes) [others in the group: +320=Luke List; +350=Akshay Bhatia; +400=Justin Suh; +400=Taylor Pendrith] = MC
• ALSO STARRING: Thomas Detry (+140 = Top 20) = T38
• *TAP-IN: Chesson Hadley (+250 = Top 20) = T7
• TAP-IN: Ryo Ishikawa (+700 = Top Asian) = MC
• TAP-IN: Taylor Montgomery (+170 = Miss the Cut) = T31
• *TAP-IN: Sam Ryder (+110 = Top 40) = T10
• TAP-IN: Callum Tarren (+175 = Top Brit and Irish) = MC
• TAP-IN: Vince Whaley (+250 = Top 20) = T59
• RETURNING: Maverick McNealy (+110 = Top 40) = MC
• RETURNING: C.T. Pan (+140 = Top 40) = MC
* For the recommendations above, an asterisk represents a bet that won.
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