Golfbet Insider: Genesis Scottish Open and Barbasol Championship

The first of consecutive doubleheaders gives us a lot to review, not the least of which is some evergreen intel to share with your fellow fantasy leaguers and commissioners. So, this is a good one to bookmark.

First things first, however. Only the Genesis Scottish Open contributes to PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. It begins on Thursday at 7:15 a.m. local time. That’s 2:15 a.m. on the East Coast of the United States, so that’s your roster deadline. Adjust accordingly for your time zone. The same very early start will occur at The Open Championship next week, which means that if you’re keen on waiting until Thursday morning to lock in your six, that’s a habit that you’re going to have to break during this fortnight.

The other matters on the front burner this week concern the various targets and positioning that I cover regularly in complementary contributions to PGATOUR.com and on my Twitter. Each impact short- and long-term fantasy value for golfers who are poised to make an impact in 2024, but some already have.

When the official results of the Genesis Scottish Open and Barbasol Championship are plugged in, the three categories in the Priority Ranking that reshuffle periodically throughout the season will undergo their last reorder not only of the 2022-23 season but for the remainder of the year. This includes what effectively is the last-ever category solely dedicated to Korn Ferry Tour graduates. The newest PGA TOUR member, Ludvig Åberg, will be inserted into it and remain in his position (unless he wins in Scotland or later in 2023) through the conclusion of the FedExCup Fall.

Category 34 of the Priority Ranking includes all Special Temporary Members, so the latest to achieve, Peter Kuest, will be added following the weekend. As I’ve chronicled for all notable non-members throughout the season in a thread on Twitter, Adrian Meronk and Victor Perez are the latest to be within reach of STM. Each needs no worse than a two-way T15 to eliminate the deficit. If either accomplishes the task and accepts STM, then he will join Category 34 for the remainder of 2023.

That objective is unrelated to the top-10 exemption that does not apply to non-members in Kentucky. As noted in the Power Rankings for the Barbasol, only PGA TOUR members who record a top 10 at Keene Trace will be eligible for the customary top-10 exemption into next week’s Barracuda Championship. The same restriction will apply to non-members at the Barracuda ahead of the 3M Open. However, non-members still will bank the equivalent of FedExCup points to contribute to their chase for STM.

There’s even one more disclaimer that applies.

In line with the top-10 restriction, if a non-member wins the Barbasol or Barracuda, the 300 FedExCup points that he’d earn would not contribute to a membership total. It’s the same exception that’s applied to World Golf Championships. A good example is Shane Lowry’s breakthrough title at the 2015 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. The 550 FedExCup points reserved for the champion were not credited to his membership total because he was a non-member at the time of the victory, so he eventually didn’t qualify for the Playoffs a few weeks later.

Much of this can be difficult to digest and exploit for your benefit. It’s one of the reasons why I make myself accessible on Twitter publicly and privately. Hit me up anytime and we can review any golfer and what he’s facing.

Jordan Spieth (+100 = Top 20) … As maddening as he can be, it’d be fun to turn the experience on its ear and opt for some sort of Magic 8-Ball bet. You’d agree to a value commensurate with the risk, but then allow a random generator to spit back the prop. Because why not? Until that surfaces, I’ll stick with fair value for a fair expectation on a track where he placed T10 in his debut last year. He leaned on his new length and led the field in putts per GIR.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, July 12, at 5:15 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Max Homa (+160 = Top 20) … Because he gushes with respect for the tests for which he signs up, it’s natural to embrace him on a stiff one like The Renaissance Club. Then again, he’s yet to make noise in any major, so that specific learning curve obviously is a different ballgame. Nevertheless, he golfed his ball around here well enough for a T16 last year, essentially taking what the course gave him. He played more defense than offense by avoiding trouble, but that’s evidence of respect and it paid off.

Justin Thomas (+160 = Miss the Cut) … My hit ratio on this prop is poor and he can’t keep missing cuts, so capitalize on his expanded value elsewhere. For example, he’s +175 for a top 20. You’re going to plunk down a unit, anyway, and the house knows that he’ll continue to be attractive, but for my purposes, I have a hit ratio to depress! Even when his irons are faltering, his short game is way too good not to pick up the slack, but the disarray of the last several starts and his ongoing struggle to keep all plates spinning is just too much on which to rely.

Kurt Kitayama (+320 = Top 20) … The harder the track, the more I like him. PGA National (3rd in 2022), Bay Hill (win in March), Oak Hill (T4 in May) – his successes on the PGA TOUR aren’t exclusive to the stingiest stages, but when he commits to give one a go, we need to go just as hard because he’s proven too many times that he has zero issues in running toward the danger. And while it’s fact, it’s also a bonus that he was the runner-up here last year. The grit, the moxie, the comfort… He’s in his prime at 30 and it still kind of feels like he’s just getting started.

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

Ryan Fox (+100 = Top 40)
Daniel Hillier (+225 = Top 40)
Joost Luiten (+175 = Top 40)
Robert MacIntyre (+275 = Top Scot)
Adrian Meronk (+260 = Top 20)
Thorbjørn Olesen (+175 = Top 40)
Adrian Otaegui (+240 = Top Spanish)
Adam Scott (+200 = Top 20)
Marcel Siem (+400 = Top German)
Sami Välimäki (+300 = Top 40)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION – Genesis Scottish Open

MacKenzie Hughes … If you’re among the throng of amateurs who play real golf and who pretend that you can compete from the tips, try carding a 76 with a kidney stone. That was his reality in the opening round of the Travelers Championship after which he explained his situation. The fact that the Canuck played at all already was a flex but that he waited until after posting a score – and not walking off, it should be noted – it was like he was trying to one-up fellow countryman Adam Hadwin for surviving the tackle at Oakdale. Of course, then Hadwin made it all the way into a playoff at the John Deere Classic, so these two are playing some wild game of “Oh, yeah? Watch this!” Hughes was scuffling in advance of his malady and he missed the cut here last year, so the value is that he’s ready to get back inside the ropes for full-season investors.

Luke List … Settled for only one round in Detroit before shutting it down due to an injured foot. Also withdrew early from the Canadian and the Deere on either side of it.

RETURNING TO COMPETITION – Barbasol Championship

Scott Piercy … If you can find a 3-ball with Derek Lamely and Santiago Tarrio, take one of them. Piercy forever will be the inaugural champion of the tournament (in 2015) but it wouldn’t matter if he’s played Keen Trace (2018-present) and was defending a title this week. He’s been nursing a sore back for weeks. It forced him out during both of his last two starts (Travelers, John Deere) and he withdrew prior to his first round of the Rocket Mortgage.

NOTABLE WDs – Genesis Scottish Open

NOTE: If you follow me on Twitter – which, by the way, now requires registration to read even forward-facing tweets – you might wonder why there aren’t many, many more players shown in these two sections. Both of my threads with the field changes for this doubleheader are longer than usual. See, I’ve singled out only the notables who withdrew after the commitment deadline and weren’t committed to the concurrently contested event on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. Just like last year, guys on the bubble for entry into the Scottish had to double-commit in case they climbed in, but not all opted for the Scottish, anyway; in fact, most didn’t. So, a very high percentage of the activity merely represents where the dust settled and not traditional withdrawals.

Mark Hubbard … His second T6 in a month and fifth top 20 in three months has fortified his slot inside the top 100 of the Official World Golf Ranking (89th), and at 54th in the FedExCup, he’s a virtual lock to qualify for the Playoffs for the fourth time. So, the fable is true – the snail often wins the race.

NOTABLE WDs – Barbasol Championship

Cameron Champ … At 145th in the FedExCup, he’s a long shot to crack the field for the Playoffs, but he’s fully exempt through 2024.

RECAP – John Deere Classic

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer = Result
1 Denny McCarthy = T6
2 Russell Henley = T35
3 Adam Hadwin = MC
4 Emiliano Grillo = MC
5 Chris Kirk = T21
6 Adam Schenk = T4
7 Taylor Moore = MC
8 Eric Cole = T42
9 Stephan Jaeger = T13
10 Nick Taylor = MC
11 Lucas Glover = T6
12 Alex Smalley = T2
13 Ludvig Åberg = T4
14 Keith Mitchell = T42
15 Peter Kuest = T17
* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

SLEEPERS
Golfer (recommended bet) = Result
Joseph Bramlett (-110 = Top 40) = MC
Tommy Kuhl (+400 = Top 40) = MC
Andrew Novak (+160 = Top 40) = T42
Sam Stevens (+110 = Top 40) = MC
*Davis Thompson (+140 = Top 40) = T31

GOLFBET INSIDER
Team (recommended bet) = Result
*Wild Card: Cameron Young (-110 = Top 20) = T6
Also Starring: J.T. Poston (+150 = Miss the Cut) = T6
*Also Starring: Seamus Power (-135 = Top 40) = T13
*Also Starring: Zach Johnson (+150 = Top 40) = T35
Tap-in: PARLAY: Emiliano Grillo, Keith Mitchell, Eric Cole (+175 = All to Make the Cut) = MC/T42/T42
Tap-in: Emiliano Grillo (-135 = Top South American) = MC
*Tap-in: Yuto Katsuragawa (+350 = Top 40) = T26
Tap-in: Michael Kim (+100 = Top 40) = MC
*Tap-in: Taylor Montgomery (+140 = Miss the Cut) = MC
Tap-in: Callum Tarren (+225 = Top Brit and Irish) = MC
Tap-in: Vince Whaley (+250 = Top 40) = MC
Tap-in: Carson Young (+150 = Top 40) = MC

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