Golfbet Insider: the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
Because Segment 3 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf concludes with this week’s Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, no fantasy advice is necessary; well, other than to remember to set your roster. We all reset to three starts per golfer for the home stretch of Segment 4. Expect some tips on how to navigate it in this space next week.
The brevity of that PSA gets us right to the formal introduction of Ludvig Åberg. He’s the first valedictorian of PGA TOUR University, so he’s kind of a big deal, and in more ways than one.
The series of changes on the PGA TOUR announced throughout the second half of 2022 began in earnest with the Designated events that have been scattered throughout the 2023 portion of the current season. The next significant adjustment will come to life during the FedExCup Playoffs for which only the top 70 will qualify. The events in the fall will experience their own life cycle and impact status for 2024. That schedule was announced in April.
One of the throughlines during all of it has been how a new class of members is determined.
The Swede from Texas Tech University will open 2024 no worse than in that same category. Before that, as in immediately, he’ll be chasing FedExCup points, so he could rise in the ranks in the interim. He’s expected to make his professional debut at next week’s RBC Canadian Open.
Åberg will open his membership slotted between Nos. 29 and 30 in the Priority Ranking and he’ll be allowed unlimited sponsor exemptions just like every other PGA TOUR member. Unless he climbs the ladder in his apprenticeship as a professional, he’ll open 2024 subject to the periodic reordering of the category that will include all of the aforementioned fellow graduates.
As unusual as it is for a fully exempt member to join the TOUR without a victory midseason, get used to it because this is the new norm. What’s already familiar to fans and veteran gamers are the shiny, new toys that often slide into focus once school is out, but their onramps also have been extended in multiple ways.
NCAA Division 1 national champion Fred Biondi, Adrien Dumont De Chassart, Ross Steelman and 2022 U.S. Amateur champion Sam Bennett represent Nos. 2-5 from the PGA TOUR University graduating class. Like Åberg, all will be allowed unlimited sponsor exemptions for the remainder of the 2022-23 PGA TOUR season as well for the entirety of the 2024 season. Each of the four also is a Korn Ferry Tour member effectively immediately and throughout 2024, and they are exempt into the final stage of Q-School.
Justin Thomas (+105 = Top 20) … If you’ve read my advice in the betting space long enough, you’ve probably picked up on my position to reduce units or split them up as the kickback increases. Of course, that inverse relationship never is going to be the best way to generate an impressive return on investment, but in my experience as a prognosticator and fantasy gamer, netting a return at all in golf calls for a celebration no matter the value greater than zero. This is why you don’t see many nods for a top 20 in Golfbet Insider, and you’ve probably noticed how I’ve evolved into primarily only top-40 props in Sleepers. So, that I’m willing to “go out on this limb” for JT when he’s scuffling with his approaches is uncommon, but so is plus value for this finish for him. Since 2017, he’s hung up three top 20s at Muirfield Village and he has a pair in his last five starts upon arrival.
Odds were sourced on Wednesday, May 31, at 4:00 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.
NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.
Jason Day (-275 = Top 40) … Settling for this seems about right. It’s a home-away-from-home game for the native Aussie, so he knows all about how to balance the comfort and distractions that go with it. No worries about his execution, especially given his punctuation mark of a victory at TPC Craig Ranch three weeks ago, but he sandwiched it with missed cuts at Quail Hollow and Oak Hill. Hey, that’s golf, but it doesn’t do much for our faith in the guy. The countermeasure would be to split the unit with him as the favorite as Top Rest of the World at +650. Diversify!
Collin Morikawa (-350 = Top 40) … He’s (-120) for a top 20 and hasn’t connected for one of those since a T10 at the Masters. In the interim, he’s just 3-for-5 but all three paydays were top 40s, so if you want to feel good about cashing a ticket, settle for the baseline and multiply the units until he puts four rounds together again.
Emiliano Grillo (-350 = Top South American) … I realize that this is taking the easy way out but it’s not like he’s off the board. His only competition is Nico Echavarria (+250 for the same prop) but I don’t mind retreating into the position of bracing for a post-victory letdown. Had Grillo been included among the throng of make-the-cut considerations, it’s likely that his odds may have been slightly shorter, but I dig the head-to-head as an alternative, anyway.
Billy Horschel (+110 = Top 40) … If plus value is there for the taking on a defending champion for this finish, you might as well take it. Because he’s been in a funk in individual, stroke-play competition all year and because BetMGM isn’t offering a miss-the-cut line, my other thought was to tag him with “no bet.” I’d love to attach belief to his love for the toughest tracks he can find, but he hasn’t delivered enough in the frame of the same narrative since last year. So, call it the man-crush and/or the positive vibes as “the man” on site ahead of his title defense, but I can’t escape endorsing a fraction of a unit for this finish amid this sequence of variables.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+230 = Miss the Cut) … Strange but true: He’s missed the cut in half of his last 10 individual competitions with a cut. A sore neck couldn’t be ruled out as part of the reason for the first, say, four, but he peppered in a couple of top 30s amid the struggle. His last MC was at Oak Hill two weeks ago, and I’ll dismiss it as I always like to do in majors, but he’s also 0-for at Muirfield Village in the last two editions. Newfound length hasn’t benefited him here (yet), so make space on your card.
NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.
PARLAY: Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, Cameron Young (+125 = All to Make the Cut)
PARLAY: Si Woo Kim, Shane Lowry, Sahith Theegala (+140 = All to Make the Cut)
Sam Bennett (+160 = Top 40)
Joseph Bramlett (+180 = Top 40)
Sam Burns (+200 = Miss the Cut)
Corey Conners (+150 = Top Canadian)
Austin Eckroat (+150 = Top 40)
Mark Hubbard (+165 = Top 40)
Francesco Molinari (+275 = Top 40)
Brandt Snedeker ... The 42-year-old picked a heckuva spot to reemerge, but even if he prevailed in every previous performance – for the record, he’s 1-for-7 with a T60 last year – this week is for observation only. He hasn’t played competitively since opening the season at Silverado, and then had surgery on his sternum just after Thanksgiving. He had dealt with discomfort in that area for years. Has four starts on a Minor Medical Extension but the affable nine-time PGA TOUR winner won’t face headwinds for sponsor exemptions, if necessary.
Maverick McNealy … Still hasn’t recovered well enough from the injury to his upper body to record a top-30 finish now eight starts into his return. The timing couldn’t have been worse given his electric start to the season, which now is compounded by the fact that he didn’t qualify for the Masters and hasn’t yet for either of the last two majors. At 82nd in the FedExCup, his goals have required adjusting, but all professional athletes experience unexpected rigors. As fascinating as it will be to see how he responds in the long-term, he’s been a drag on full-season investors who can’t cut the cord because of his potential.
Taylor Moore … Saw his consecutive cuts-made streak end at eight last week, but he opened it by officially qualifying for the U.S. Open. Of course, that was a foregone conclusion but he snuck into the field for The Open Championship this week via the latest Official World Golf Ranking. So, with starts in the majors secure, he can sprinkle rest into his long-range scheduling which has strengthened since his breakthrough victory at Copperhead in mid-March.
RECAP – Charles Schwab Challenge
Power Ranking Golfer = Result
* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.
Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) = Result
*Byeong Hun An (-110 = Top 40) = T21
*Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+125 = Top South African) = T21
Beau Hossler (-110 = Top 40) = T70
Nate Lashley (+150 = Top 40) = MC
Matt NeSmith (+120 = Top 40) = T48
Team (recommended bet) = Result
Wild Card: Chris Kirk (-175 = Top 40) = MC
Also Starring: Min Woo Lee (+180 = Top 20) = T40
Also Starring: Ryan Fox (+165 = Miss the Cut) = T21
Also Starring: Si Woo Kim (+230 = Miss the Cut) = T29
Tap-in: HOLE-IN-ONE (-145 = No) = Yes (2)
Tap-in: PARLAY: Stephan Jaeger, Min Woo Lee, Denny McCarthy (+150 = All to Make the Cut) = T68/T40/MC
Tap-in: Michael Block (+225 = Make the Cut) = MC
Tap-in: Hayden Buckley (-110 = Top 40) = MC
Tap-in: Eric Cole (+100 = Top 40) = MC
Tap-in: Lucas Herbert (-110 = Top 40) = MC
Tap-in: Tom Hoge (+165 = Miss the Cut) = T52
Tap-in: Ben Martin (+140 = Top 40) = T57
Tap-in: Henrik Norlander #1 (+350 = Top Swedish) = MC
Tap-in: Henrik Norlander #2 (+250 = Top 40) = MC
Tap-in: Patrick Rodgers (+100 = Top 40) = T57
*Tap-in: Justin Suh (+120 = Top 40) = T16
Tap-in: Dylan Wu (+160 = Top 40) = MC
*Tap-in: Carson Young (+138 = Top 40) = T21
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