Hawthorne picks: Saturday stakes offer value opportunities

Stakes seasons in the harness sphere near their close for 2023 with the ultimate championship – the Breeders Crown – two weeks away at Harrah’s Hoosier Park. This week, however, Illinois will crown its best and brightest with a 12-race program on Saturday at Hawthorne with hit after hit of state-bred stakes action totaling more than $1 million in purses.

Race 1 – The $83,000 Beulah Dygert Memorial Championship

Unfortunately, this card could have a chalky start because of the inherent advantages present for No. 1 Bell Boots. She can leave the gate and draws a good post to gain position while also being much handier than the other trotting fillies entered. And this honestly is a race where I think no. 10 Radiant Diamond could prove herself the best horse if not for the outside draw. Now she still can somehow breakthrough from the tough spot – she certainly floats over the ground and can keep chugging and chugging. But her lack of gate speed forces her to lean so heavily on her ability that it might not be enough for her to prevail. But she could. No. 2 Dawn Of Creation is another coming into this race alright, but she trotted greenly when weaving through traffic last out. She has the speed to do well but will have to keep her head together. No. 7 Zena Lou may be able to liven the exotics given her late speed and much of this field’s struggle with maintaining their gait.

Contenders: 1-10-2-7

Race 2 – The $45,000 Tony Maurello Memorial Championship

This entire race hinges on which version of Double Parked shows up. She has incredible speed, but folded so badly on the lead last out and three starts ago struggled to get into the race. In the off chance she’s not going to fire like last out, that could aid the speed tactics of No. 1 Skeeter Machine. She’s not the gutsiest mare in the field but when she can get rolling, she’ll keep going. That could be enough to give her the tactical edge on this field. No. 4 Dandy’s MNM also has room to perform well here if the speed doesn’t materialize, since she took back when the pace appeared heated to the first turn in her runner-up effort last out. She can fire for a seat and the question to that point will be if she’s close enough to productively strike. No. 2 Apple Valley has back class and ability, but her win last out honestly came from being in the right place and moving at the right time. Slick steers are fantastic, but when evaluating if this potential favorite would be worth a straight plunge, others in this race appear to have better value on the win side. No. 5 Roan By Design carries a decent late kick for any given pace setup, but she has a tendency to lug inside which was a detriment to her rally last out. She nonetheless could maybe grab a slice.

Contenders: 1-4-2-5

Race 3 – The $45,000 Carl Becker Memorial Championship

I know you came here for the expert insight, but I hate to say the morning line may have this short-field contest nailed. Though I have no clue how much No. 1 Funky Wiggle had in the tank to the finish, but she clearly needed that race given the time off from a sick scratch in August. She has a post advantage, too, and was well held when no. 2 Annas Lucky Star was working to maintain the lead, so this morning-line chalk is either obviously sneaky or possible chalk bait. Annas Lucky Star presumably tries to take this field gate to wire, but she did have the plugs pulled and was encouraged to keep going to the finish so I also have a tough time gauging how stern she can be in the long stretch at a short price. No. 5 Reign And Shine has a solid late kick, but the fact he’ll probably be last to the quarter puts him in real trouble for the win spot. For place or show, he can make it work.

Contenders: 1-2-5

Race 4 – The $45,000 Robert S. Molaro Championship

All of the trip handicapping in the world cannot overcome contests where faster horses are in against not-as-fast horses. No. 2 He’zzz A Wise Sky has demonstrated, in his recovery from a sick scratch in September, he may just be a full second better than all his competitors. That’s five lengths of tactics the rest of this field would somehow have to build to compensate, so he may be a reliable chalk. No. 4 Fox Valley Gemini is a cool horse but he’s going to be an obvious one underneath given his oodles of local class and his emphatic performance here and there, but he likely won’t be a price worth justifying a stab against the favorite for win. No. 5 Fox Valley Ozzy appears a third-best type if he can get away close early, since in his last three starts he’s shown he can chase faster horses. No. 1 Song Cycle Senese can also chase, but is not as strong in holding that speed. Hopefully he takes some play from the inside post to leave room for an okay trifecta, but in regards to the rest of the field he can get a piece.

Contenders: 2-4-5-1

Race 5 – The $119,000 Fox Valley Flan Championship

I am going to take my required tout moment to say I spent many minutes staring up and down the page of this race. And all of this effort came to the conclusion that the favorite no. 5 Whiskey Lou should not lose, but for some reason a pit inside my stomach tells me she could. The only times of late where she has come short has been when she goes to the lead, but given this post I feel like her goal is going to be to try and come from off the speed. She soared when given cover in her most recent and showed a turn of foot that no one in this field can match. But man, these are the types of races where horses like this might not show up because of something sneaky like no. 1 Stand By Your Man. She’s had issues staying flat as of late, but when she can stay together she keeps on coming and she keeps on coming and she keeps on coming. She could be good enough odds to warrant a tiny stab against the chalk even if the most likely result is going to be utter domination by the favorite. No. 10 Gjlindagrit is another interesting one because she can leave the gate and keep plugging. She’s by no means the fastest in the field, but her grit could be enough to get her involved at a price. No. 7 Calypso Moon is a chalk with a similar style but could still get involved through the mile. Honestly, the most likely way to make money off this race could be to bow to the favorite and fade Illini Diva, who will have a lot of work to do if she lags the gate again.

Contenders: 5-1-10-7

Race 6 – The $105,000 Robert F. Carey Jr. Memorial Championship

Yeehaw another race with more chalk. As long as No. 4 Fox Valley Landen doesn’t go to the lead, I’m not sure how this field beats him. He has better tools than many in this bunch that makes him a menace within four lengths of the lead. And I’m not sure how he’s not within four lengths of the lead turning for home, so congrats chalk eaters you have another live one. No. 2 Illini Jetset has the gate speed with the post draw to at least try and land in an okay spot where he can punch through for a piece. No. 9 Fox Valley Cayman is a longshot that also has gate speed which can perch him into position for a good check at a good price. No. 6 Fox Valley Patriot is a solid horse, but he has shown at times even with his strong late kick he can be toppled by others with positional advantage or even a moderate late kick. He’s a short price I’ll tread cautiously on, but by this point in the card I’m hoping some of these price horses can start breaking through.

Contenders: 4-2-9-6

Race 7 – The $90,000 Erwin F. Dygert Memorial Championship

A possible tit or tat kind of race. No. 4 Goomster has my swing just given the improvement he’s shown with the new barn while also having been a clear standout on the Illinois program. He won with enough authority last out to make me think he could possibly keep the hard charge of no. 8 Niko Man at bay. Because Niko Man can fly; I’m talking 27-second final quarters, even 26-second final quarters. He’s fast, but last out he only charged for home even footed, so I have to think if he’s going to be the favorite that Goomster’s possible positional advantage could be a strong enough uppercut. Beyond them, no. 2 Tankmetodennyland likes to trot through the wire so he could find his way onto the ticket as could no. 7 Fox Valley Corso if he stays flat. But this race would only be open to monumental upset under peculiar circumstances.

Contenders: 4-8-2-7

Race 8 – The $45,000 Plesac Championship

No. 6 On Higher Ground has competed against the likes of Grand Circuit champs like Hillexotic, Amigo Volo, Justice and Southwind Tyrion. On back class alone, he is supposed to dispose this field. But he also appears a quirky type so who knows. I’m surprised he’s the second choice on the morning line, cause if he’s not the favorite that’s objectively an overlay. No. 4 Louscardamon should improve in his second start off the bench. He’ll be a factor underneath if Wilfong can get him forward into a stalking spot, because this field does have limited speed off the gate. No. 3 Talk About Valor should try and go forward but he’s a lead-and-hope-to-hold type, which are not fun to take if they are the 9-5 morning line favorite. But he can get a good check. No. 1 Heath Bar also is capable of much better efforts than he’s shown in his last two off of scratches in the summer, so perhaps if those two miles were good-enough tighteners he can storm home for a minor share.

Contenders: 6-4-3-1

Race 9 – The $121,000 Kadabra Championship

The fact that no. 4 Lous Private Eye can keep grinding puts him in a good spot to do well here. This field is loaded with horses that want to launch and hold, since many tend to struggle finishing the mile. He’s one of the few that can finish the mile, but he’ll have to get away in good enough position to collar this bunch. No. 5 Fireballs Pride has the gate speed to maybe steal it in a stride or two given he’ll probably work a stalking trip. Question is will the money hop off of him now since he’s been the chalk in all four of his pari-mutuel outings. No. 3 Fox Valley Parker also can gain ground in the latter stages and even won a preliminary for this series two starts ago before being mired with a bad post in his most recent. With a better draw, expect him to outperform his 25-1 morning line. No. 9 Tru Cash is another that can keep trotting through the mile, so I think my overall point is I do not trust most of the speed here.

Contenders: 4-5-3-9

Race 10 – The $174,000 Incredible Finale Championship

No. 6 Fox Valley Durham is the best horse in the field. He likely is not put in a tough position through most of the ways this race can unfold. Because of the post draw and his handiness, he likely can get the jump on his competitors and go. Real tough to see who usurps him. No. 1 Fox Valley Julian I think has a slight chance just given that he holds a track record over this oval and clearly races better with a target. But that’s the thing, he’s going to need a target when that target will probably be the favorite who can outkick him on the jump. He’d have to show that 25-second final quarter to have a chance. No. 2 Gorgeous Big Guy should be placed well off the wings to be productive, but I also don’t see how he can beat his stablemate here. No. 8 Guitar Man likely finds his way into the race late for a share.

Contenders: 6-1-2-8

Race 11 – The $187,000 Incredible Tillie Champinoship

Amy Husted comes into this race with a loaded contingent. I feel like no. 3 Fox Valley Saide is coming into this race the best of her tandem despite missing by a neck in the most recent prelim. She has the speed, she can sustain tough trips on the rim and finally gets a good post to possibly work better into the race. No. 4 Stevie Mae appears able to also leave the gate, which could make her a live longshot depending on if any horses decide to make sudden speed off the wings. No. 5 Chickabell is the most eyecatching on paper of the Husted trainees, but with those flashy miles I wonder how much was taken out of her in that parked-mile win at 1-2 on Oct. 7. She certainly has the ability to deliver, but if she’s the favorite I feel like trying others. No. 6 Hypeyourbestieup should also find her way into the race off that tightening win last out, but she’s likely an underneath player.

Contenders: 3-4-5-6

Race 12 – The $116,000 Plum Peachy Champinoship

Okay, I am taking a stand in the finale here. No 3-2 morning line choices on top for me, nosiree; I think she can get into trouble (or just absolutely destroy me). Same time, I hate that No. 8 My Daddy’s Revenge, the second choice on the morning line, appears the most likely counter. She has a strong late kick and has been rounding into form with this race appearing her target. The only thing against her is her racing style since we never know how congested traffic through the field can get. And in all honesty, I wish No. 10 Fox Valley Kia got a better post draw. She’s another one on this card who I think is incredibly live coming into their stakes event but had terrible luck at the post draw. She has plenty of speed to maybe still get into the race early though, and she also appears strong enough to carry that speed through. She should be a great price. No. 7 Fox Valley Leah is an obvious factor for her eight-race win streak, blah blah blah. No. 1 Some Dancing Star should get involved in the underneath spots since she fairly matches the speed of the other contenders while also showing tons of versatility with the kinds of trips she can handle. The post draw benefits her, too.