Herder: 2023 Walter Payton Award Preseason Favorites

As a Stats Perform FCS Top 25 media poll voter and national awards voter, I think it’s important to be transparent about my voting and reasoning.

I’ll publish my weekly Top 25 ballot every Sunday or Monday, and I’ll also provide a couple of updates during the season on who I have my eye on for major awards like the Walter Payton Award (FCS Offensive Player of the Year) and the Buck Buchanan Award (FCS Defensive Player of the Year).

Here are my preseason favorites for the Walter Payton Award.

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If Hiers is even better in his second season at Samford (2022 transfer from Northwest Mississippi Community College), then watch out.

He was excellent last year, going 353/461 passing (77%) for 3,544 yards, 36 touchdowns, and four interceptions while adding three rushing TDs. Samford went undefeated against FCS opponents last regular season, and in the final five regular-season games, Hiers threw for 442, 260, 322, 353, and 454 yards.

Hiers finished fourth in the 2022 Walter Payton Award voting.

This fall, he has his No. 1 and 3 wide receivers returning: Chandler Smith (100 catches, 1,071 yards, 11 TDs) and D.J. Rias (51 catches, 588 yards, six TDs).

Day’s numbers may not blow you away. But actually watching this man throw the football should.

Day began his career at Michigan State and was ranked the No. 7 pro-style QB recruit in the country by 247Sports. He transferred to UNI in 2021, throwing for 2,316 yards and 16 TDs. Last year, he completed 210/323 passes (65%) for 3,121 yards, 26 TDs, and six interceptions.

He’s probably the most physically-gifted QB in the FCS. The 6-foot-5, 231-pounder can sling it. And six of his top eight WRs from 2022 are back. Expect big numbers this fall and his NFL Draft buzz to continue growing.

McKinney has had a fantastic career, setting several EKU records. He eyes his best season yet as a sixth-year senior and his fifth season starting. There were certainly FBS programs dangling NIL offers in front of him this offseason.

Last year, McKinney went 315/459 passing (69%) for 3,956 yards, 33 TDs, and eight interceptions, plus 354 yards rushing and eight scores. His career numbers are 9,718 yards passing, 74 TDs, and 32 interceptions along with 1,446 rushing yards and 20 TDs.

McKinney has an intact o-line to protect him. And his No. 1 target Jaden Smith (62 catches for 750 yards and six TDs) returns as well.

Sluka is going to have the numbers and team success to get a lot of love in Payton ballots. And deservedly so. He’s a baller.

His dual-threat abilities will be on display all season. And he has two FBS opponents to show he’s not just picking on average FCS defenses. In last year’s 37-31 win against FBS Buffalo, Sluka had 238 passing yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 146 rushing yards. Buffalo finished 7-6 and beat Georgia Southern in the Camellia Bowl.

In 2022, Sluka threw for 2,489 yards (153/266 passing, 57.5%) 26 touchdowns, and four interceptions with 1,234 rushing yards and 11 TDs. Holy Cross will ride Sluka’s arm and legs during its most anticipated season in years.

The odds of a non-QB winning the Walter Payton Award are low. Seven straight winners have been quarterbacks. Eastern Washington WR Cooper Kupp was the last non-QB to win in 2015. Before Kupp, 11 straight winners were QBs. The last RB to earn this award was Colgate’s Jamaal Branch in 2003.

Of course, production is key when it comes to postseason accolades. But I try to look beyond just the numbers. The Payton Award is for the best FCS offensive player, not the most productive FCS offensive player. Production does go hand-in-hand with that, but overall talent, the strength of opponents, what system a player is a part of (pass-happy, run-heavy, balanced, splitting carries, etc.), and more all play a part in evaluating national awards.

Most likely, Davis and Hatten will be somewhere in my Top 5 by the season’s end due to their production and overall abilities as the best pure players at their position.

While Kupp is a generational talent, Hatten has drawn comparisons as the most dominant Big Sky player since Kupp. The 6-foot-2, 205-pounder was unstoppable last year, even as the top focus of defenses. He tallied 83 catches, 1,209 yards, and 16 TDs. A special season is in store as QB Gevani McCoy returns, and defenses can’t totally sell out to stop Hatten with 1,000-yard WR Jermaine Jackson and leading RB Anthony Woods also back.

Based on past precedents of voters, a running back has to put up ungodly numbers to be considered. I mean, SDSU RB Pierre Strong Jr. was the most gifted back the FCS had seen recently and was drafted in the fourth round in 2022, yet he finished fifth in 2021 voting after rushing for 1,317 yards and 15 TDs during the regular season.

(Voting for these awards happens after the regular season and before the playoffs.)

SDSU has weapons everywhere offensively and will spread the wealth. I still expect Davis to go over 1,000 yards rushing and have 10+ rushing touchdowns. Last year, he rushed 249 times for 1,451 yards and 15 TDs. And I think he’ll be drafted next year around the fourth round. And I think enough voters will realize how physically-gifted Davis is to put him in their Top 5.