How Inconsistent Red Sox Still One Of MLB's Most Profitable Bets

What do the Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals all have in common? They’re making you the most profit in one specific betting market.

Just because a team is elite doesn’t mean betting on them daily will make you the most long-term profit, and vice versa with weaker rosters. The Tampa Bay Rays, Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers have some of the best records in baseball. However, because they have stacked rosters and have found success early in the season, bookmakers are making them heavy favorites against most opponents.

As a result, if you bet them on the moneyline when they’re -200 or higher favorites, a few losses can quickly hurt your bankroll. For example, when you’re betting a -200 moneyline, you’re risking $200 to win $100. If you make that bet only twice and lose, you’re down $400 versus the potential profit of just $200 if they had won both. It’s the opposite case when betting underdogs, which is why a team like the Arizona Diamondbacks is a top-five profitable bet on the moneyline.

Here are the MLB teams making you the most money in their respective betting markets. Keep in mind, these will fluctuate all season, and trends are not necessarily predictive but can be helpful in the handicapping process.

We’ll use units as the profit indicator. A unit is how much you’re regularly risking on a bet. For example, if your unit size is $100, then a team that is +10 units on the season in a particular market would have made you $1,000 if you bet them daily.

Total Over: Boston Red Sox +13.80 units
The Red Sox have a bottom-five team ERA at 5.07 and a lineup that — when hot — gets scorching. That indeed is the perfect recipe for this market and they continue to hit the over no matter how high the books adjust. Boston is 28-13-2 to the over, which means the Sox are hitting more than the total set for the game 68.2% of the time.

Total Under: San Diego Padres +11.85 units
This one is still shocking to me, as it is likely to you, too. With the star-studded Padres lineup, you wouldn’t think that under would be the associated play here. However, the lineup hasn’t found its rhythm yet, scoring the fifth-fewest runs in baseball. The pitching has been good, and with a team ERA just outside the top 10, it makes even more sense why they?re cashing the under at the highest rate.

Runline: Washington Nationals +10.65 Units
The Nationals aren’t doing anything terribly and aren’t necessarily doing anything outstanding, outside of smashing left-handed pitching. Overall, though, they’ve done just enough to keep games close and cover the run line (often as an underdog) at 27-15.

Home Moneyline: Tampa Bay Rays +14.40 units
I know what you’re thinking. I just used the Rays as an example of a team that you need to risk a lot to win a little. However, with their historical start to the season, they racked up 19 wins at home with just three losses, making them the most profitable moneyline home team, scoring six runs a game at the Trop.

Away Moneyline: Atlanta Braves +7.60 units
With 16 road wins this season and just seven losses, the Braves are actually better as a visitor than they are at home so far. Their team road ERA is a league-best 2.84 and shoots up to 4.27 at home. They’re scoring the fourth-most runs per game on the road, with their batting average going from the middle of the pack (.250) at home to the fourth-best (.264) away from Truist Park.