In-play golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open

Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open

1pt e.w. Collin Morikawa at 18/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3)

2pts Ryan Palmer to finish in the top 10 at 9/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

"Football is a simple game," said Gary Lineker after England were knocked out by Germany in the semi-finals of the 1990 World Cup in Italy. "Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win." Maybe golf needs to paraphrase that quote to reflect the start of 2023. "Golf is a simple game: lots of players hit a white ball around for four days and at the end, Jon Rahm always wins."

It certainly seems to be going that way again after the Spaniard stayed on track for his third straight victory of 2023 following an excellent six-under-par 66 at the South Course on Friday that lifted him to solo second place. With just 18 holes to go (Saturday is the final round, don’t forget, due to the Wednesday start), he’s two back from surprise leader Sam Ryder.

That Rahm finds himself in such a position would seem remarkable to anyone who hasn't watched golf since the Saturday in early January when two-time Major winner Collin Morikawa took a mighty six-shot lead into the final round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Morikawa had one hand and several fingers on the trophy but Rahm put the pressure on with a brilliant closing 10-under 63 and came from seven back to take the title.

Rahm did it a different way in last week's American Express, starting Sunday tied for the lead and nudging home by a shot after carding a final-day 68. And this week's story has its own plot line. In both the Sentry and American Express, Rahm was never outside the top six after any round. Here, he was 116th after a frustrating Thursday on the South Course and, with five holes to go on the North on day two, the 28-year-old was still outside the cut line.

But here we are with 18 holes to play and Rahm is in the driving seat again: no more than 6/5 to continue his winning streak. Let’s not forget that he also took victory on his final two starts of the 2022 DP World Tour season. This is a sustained run of getting it done.

Many may see him as an auto-bet from this position but Rahm isn’t the only story in town.

Ryder has hardly put a foot wrong in reaching 12-under; third-placed Tony Finau (eight-under) loves the South Course and is chasing a fourth win in 10 starts; Collin Morikawa (seven-under) is in position to flip the script and take revenge on Rahm; Max Homa (seven-under) is eyeing a fourth win in California since early 2021; Sahith Theegala (seven-under), like Ryder, is chasing a first PGA Tour victory.

Rahm is the most likely winner but I’m not rushing to back him at 6/5 with plenty of classy players lurking. Instead, let’s take the view that his red-hot form and subsequent short price gives us opportunities elsewhere.

So where do we go? One angle, and this is fairly rare on the PGA Tour, is driving accuracy. Trevor Immelman said in commentary late in round three: "You need to be driving it on a string around here. The rough is some of the toughest I’ve ever seen. Just gnarly out there." Immelman backed up his words by pointing out that the top four on the leaderboard at that late stage on day three were all in the top 12 for driving accuracy.

Theegala is only 34th in that category so I’ll pass him over. Sungjae Im, another in the bunch tied for fourth on seven-under - five back - is 42nd so he’s swerved also. Ryder has hit it well off the tee but he parred his final 12 holes on Friday to suggest this is already becoming a grind and that faster, sexier cars will whizz past him on the final lap.

The most accurate driver so far is COLLIN MORIKAWA and maybe he can gain a measure of revenge for Hawaii by pinching this from Rahm.

The 2021 Open winner is first for driving accuracy, first for strokes-gained: approach and second for SG: tee-to-green. Now we just need the putter to arrive. The good news is that at least his putting stats are going in the right direction. He’s gone from losing nearly two shots to the field on day two to virtually breaking even on day three.

Morikawa’s last five starts in his home state of California show a win in the 2020 PGA Championship, fourth in the 2021 US Open here at Torrey Pines and a second in last year’s Genesis Invitational. In other words, he thrives when contesting big events in the Golden State.

Add in the element of revenge he has for blowing that six-shot lead in the Sentry Tournament of Champions a few weeks ago and, from a position of much lesser expectation, Morikawa looks worth an each-way play at 18/1 with bet365 (1/5 1-2-3).

Finau, after his exceptional third-round 64, is an option at 7s but Morikawa is 11 points bigger which seems a lot given that they’re separated by just a shot. Homa, tied with Morikawa on seven-under, is also worth a look at 18s given his record in these parts although he was one-over for his final 12 holes yesterday and rather chugging.

Wild weather can give us opportunities in a round four at Torrey Pines but it looks fairly calm this time. I will though look a little further down the leaderboard and play RYAN PALMER for a top 10 finish at 9/2 with Betfair.

He advanced nine spots to tied 15th on Friday so a similar move would land the money.

Palmer is a two-time runner-up at Torrey Pines (2018 and 2021) and also has 13th in 2019, 21st in 2020 and 16th last year so he’s in a familiar position. Given that course history, his chances of getting into a payout position in this market are possibly being underestimated.

The veteran had a subdued start on the North when two-over after just six holes but he birdied three of the last four holes to hand in a 71. Since then he’s been solid on the South: a one-under 71 on day two and a two-under 70 on Moving Day thanks to a closing eagle.

I also like the way he’s driving it. Palmer has hit nine of 14 fairways each day and ranks ninth for driving accuracy for his 36 holes on the South Course. Ranking 4th on SG: approach, he’s hitting his irons well too. His current position of tied 15th is built on solid foundations.

A final couple of thoughts. Rahm has a lower scoring average here (69.22) than Tiger (69.28) did and that’s officially bonkers given that this was Woods’ playground. The great man won this event seven times and famously triumphed on one leg at Torrey in the 2008 US Open.

But speaking of Tiger, no-one has won three PGA Tour events in the same month since August 2006 when Woods reeled off the Buick Open, PGA Championship and WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Rahm is a rare talent but history and a few wonky shots towards the end of his round mean we can’t hand him the title just yet.

Posted at 1105 GMT on 28/01/23

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