Lakers vs. Nuggets NBA Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions for WCF Rematch

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23 October 2023

Lakers vs. Nuggets NBA Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions for WCF Rematch

A new NBA season begins with a Western Conference Finals rematch, as we dive into our favorite Lakers vs. Nuggets NBA player props based on the best NBA odds.

The Denver Nuggets swept the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals on their way to capturing their first championship in franchise history last year. Will Los Angeles get revenge to spoil ring night in Denver, or will Nikola Jokic and Co. set the tone for their title defense in Game 1 of the 2023-24 NBA regular season?

Here are our best Lakers vs. Nuggets NBA player props and NBA picks for Opening Night (odds via ourbest NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lakers vs. Nuggets NBA player props

Anthony Davis Over 0.5 3-pointers (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I was eagerly waiting for this line to be released and pounced on a +105 price as soon as DraftKings offered these odds last Friday. This would have been a five-star pick at a plus-money price, but we still like this as a four-star play at the standard -110 odds.

The Lakers ran more five-out offense in the preseason, while also encouraging Davis to take more jumpers. That combination led to Davis hitting at least one 3-pointer in each of his five preseason appearances, despite never playing more than 23 minutes in a game. He went 6-for-13 from long range in the preseason.

We can't guarantee that Davis will get a 3-pointer to fall on Opening Night, but I'm not sure the books are properly pricing this particular emphasis from both him and the Lakers' coaching staff. With a shop like Caesars setting the same Over at -145, scoop up a value of -115 or better based on the momentum Davis built in the preseason.

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D'Angelo Russell Over 5.5 assists (+135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Another preseason trend that we believe will carry over into the regular season is Russell's impact as the starting point guard. Russell became a liability in last year's Western Conference Finals, which likely played a part in him returning to the Lakers on a two-year deal this past offseason.

This is Russell's chance at revenge for the WCF costing him a better payday, especially since he's always been a better regular-season player than a playoff contributor. The Lakers will continue to let Russell initiate most of their actions, particularly their most-common set (double drag) that features multiple high ball screens for him.

Russell averaged 6.1 assists in 17 regular-season games with the Lakers last year, clearing this mark 10 different times. He proceeded to finish with six-plus assists in four of his six preseason outings, as well.

Because this line is hovering at 4.5 or 5.5 at most of our best sports betting sites, we suggest taking the +135 offering at DraftKings through the alternate assists market. This same Over is listed at +120 at both FanDuel and bet365, indicating that DK's number is worth taking before it's too late.

Jamal Murray to be top points scorer (+500 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

There is so much star power in this game, but we are betting on Denver's point guard to begin his All-Star campaign in the opener. This market is available only at FanDuel as of Monday evening, with Jokic (+190), LeBron James (+270), and Davis (+270) leading the way.

Murray might be the No. 4 option at +500, but he's the only other player to be trading shorter than 36/1. That's likely because he actually led the Western Conference Finals in scoring, averaging 32.5 points per contest in that series and finishing as the high scorer in two of the four games.

Our Jon Metler has already explained why he likes the Under on James' points prop in his NBA best bets for Tuesday, which would eliminate one of the biggest challengers in this market.

The betting favorite is Murray's teammate, but it helps that Jokic typically eases into each season. He averaged 21 points per game in October last year, his lowest monthly average in a campaign where he produced 24.5 points per contest.

We don't mind taking a chance on Murray being the hero of Denver's ring night by sprinkling 0.2 units to win one full unit on this prop. His true odds should be better than this +500 price would suggest.

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Lakers-Nuggets player props made 10/23/2023 at 5:25 p.m. ET