Lakers vs. Nuggets Prediction, Pick & Odds

sportsbookreview.com

24 October 2023

NBA Opening Night is here as the Los Angeles Lakers look to spoil the defending champions' ring ceremony when they visit the Denver Nuggets; below we have our Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction based on the best NBA odds.

The 2023-24 NBA season tips off Tuesday after an exciting and eventful offseason. The season's first game is a marquee matchup between the defending champion Denver Nuggets and the new-look Los Angeles Lakers.

The Lakers’ 2022-23 season was a roller coaster of highs and lows, but the team closed the regular season strong and made a run to the Western Conference Finals before being swept by Denver. The Lakers made multiple notable additions to the roster over the summer, while Denver mostly stayed pat despite losing a pair of key rotational pieces in forwards Bruce Brown and Jeff Green.

Denver will hold its ring ceremony and hoist the championship banner tonight as the team looks to defend its first title. Can LeBron James and Co. play spoiler on opening night?

Check our Player Props in conjunction with our best Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction

Austin Reaves Under 1.5 Threes (+118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Reaves broke out in his second year, finishing the regular season as a starter and keeping the momentum going with a strong playoff run. Though he attempted and made more triples while in the starting lineup, Reaves is not a prolific long-range shooter, and we can get juicy odds on this prop at FanDuel.

Reaves hit at least two three-pointers in just 24 of 64 games played last season, averaging 1.3 across 28.8 minutes per game. In 22 games as a starter, his minutes increased to 32.8, but his three-point average went up only slightly to 1.6, and he hit multiple threes in 10 of those contests.

Reaves hit 3.5 triples per game against the Nuggets in the playoffs but also logged 39.8 minutes per game. He took on an expanded role with D’Angelo Russell playing just 23.5 minutes per game in that series. Reaves’ minutes won’t be that high, nor will Russell’s be that low, and the Lakers added several key rotational players in the offseason.

Both Taurean Prince and Christian Wood have shot better than 37% from beyond the arc in their careers. Prince is starting this game, and Wood is expected to play significant minutes off the bench. There are more mouths to feed for a team that ranked 29th in three-pointers attempted last season.

Denver held opponents to the second-lowest three-point percentage per game a season ago at just 34.4% overall and the lowest at home at just 32.6%. Teams attempted the sixth-fewest threes against Denver’s solid perimeter defense. Too many factors are working against Reaves on opening night, and we’ll take the Under for this prop.

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Lakers vs. Nuggets best odds

Most of our best sports betting apps offer prop at plus money, with bet365 standing out as the lone exception. We’ll turn our attention away from that book and instead look to the juiciest odds of the bunch at FanDuel. While DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars all have Reaves’ Under 1.5 Threes prop set at +100 or +104, FanDuel is offering it much longer at +118, so we’ll target this mispriced line.

Lakers vs. Nuggets odds

The Nuggets are favored by 5 or 5.5 at our best sports betting sites, and the spread hasn’t seen much movement since opening. Likewise, the moneyline has remained relatively stagnant for this opening-night matchup.

Denver is drawing 66% of bets to cover the spread after going 31-20-1 ATS at home last season and winning its four-game series against the Lakers by an average margin of six points. The Nuggets won by at least 11 points in two home matchups with the Lakers in the regular season, and the Lakers were 23-25-1 ATS on the road in 2022-23.

Bettors favor a high-scoring game, with 59% of wagers placed on the Over. The total is a modest 228 or 228.5, but these teams went 1-3 to the Under in four regular-season matchups last season. Denver was 22-29-1 to the Under at home, while the Lakers were 31-18 to the Over on the road. Denver averaged 117.8 points per game at home, while Los Angeles posted 116 per game on the road.