Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: Alexander Zverev vs. Daniil Medvedev, ATP Finals

This match feels like a coin flip, so I’m taking the underdog—who just so happens to be a two-time ATP Finals champion.

In a meeting between two 1-0 players in the Red Group at the ATP Finals, Alexander Zverev takes on Daniil Medvedev on Wednesday, November 15th. Zverev is coming off an impressive 6-7 (3), 6-3, 6-4 win over Carlos Alcaraz, while Medvedev defeated fellow countryman Andrey Rublev, 6-4, 6-2. Now, we’re going to see the sixth meeting between Zverev and Medvedev in the 2023 season alone, so these two are certainly familiar with one another. And while this series has gone Medvedev’s way lately, I like Zverev’s chances of putting up a fight here.

Of the five matches that these two have played in 2023, Zverev has won at least a set in three of them. Zverev also beat Medvedev when the two met in Cincinnati in August, showing the world that he is capable of pulling through against this difficult opponent. I’m backing Zverev to win a set in this match, which is available at some very reasonable odds—but I’m also sprinkling a little on the moneyline, as I think Zverev is in a great spot here.

I believe that Zverev is going to be the more confident player when these two take the court on Wednesday, as he’s coming off one of the biggest wins of his career. Alcaraz absolutely dominated Zverev when the two met at the US Open just a few months ago, but he was able to put that behind him and find a way through on Monday. Zverev did it by getting a ton of returns back in the court, daring Alcaraz to beat him from the baseline. But Zverev’s defense was great when it needed to be, and he also came up with the goods on some remarkable passing shots. Zverev just looks like he is playing with a lot of freedom right now, and he knows that these conditions suit him well.

Zverev is one of the best servers in the world in any setting, but he’s especially dangerous on an indoor hard court. These courts just play so fast that it is nearly impossible to get a racquet on Zverev’s serve when he’s hitting his spots. He served up 16 aces against Alcaraz last match, and that’s against one of the best returners in the sport. Medvedev is also a tremendous returner and he's longer than Alcaraz, so he might be able to block some of those serves back. However, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to do so in a way that puts Zverev in any sort of compromising position, so we should see plenty of serve-plus-ones out of the 26-year-old.

All in all, I don’t see Medvedev having much success getting into Zverev’s service games. That means that we should see a tiebreaker or two, at the very least. And I like Zverev’s chances of coming through in at least one of those, which is why I’m going bigger on Zverev +1.5 sets here. But I also think the way this match will play out makes it more of a toss-up, which is why there’s tremendous value in backing Zverev on the moneyline, too. This match feels like a coin flip, so I’m taking the underdog—who just so happens to be a two-time ATP Finals champion.

Line Call: Zverev +1.5 Sets (-140) & Zverev ML (+180 - 0.5 units)