Linked for a fortnight: Genesis Scottish Open kicks off big two-week stretch

Wherever you are in the world – whether you’re getting up early, staying up late, or watching in primetime from the U.K. itself – you just have to love the next two weeks in golf.

The next “fortnight,” as those from the U.K. call it, sees the PGA TOUR head to the Genesis Scottish Open followed by the Open Championship. It is an examination of links-style golf for the combatants. First at the Renaissance Club, then off to Royal Liverpool in England for the 151st Open. So you can consider the following advice relevant for both weeks.

(Quick sidenote: We must not forget the fortnight ahead back in the U.S. as well, where opportunity knocks at the Barbasol Championship in Kentucky and the Barracuda Championship in California. But I’ll get to that later in the column.)

Links golf brings out the imagination in a golfer. The thinking game. One must know how to hit high and low. How to thread the ball through mounds and humps while avoiding strategically placed pot bunkers. A ground game is imperative.

One cannot ignore season-long stat trends, but there is an added wrinkle these next two weeks: there is a different type of golf to be played. Some players are proven links performers, while others have struggled in it.

Players with talent to burn like Justin Thomas haven’t had a top 10 at The Open (six attempts). Hideki Matsuyama was T6 on debut in 2013 at the Open but hasn’t had another top 10 in his next seven attempts. It’s a different puzzle.

And then there is the wildcard of the weather. It’s early days in the forecast but the opening round could well be gusty with winds out of the west and south-west up to 20mph but come Friday it could be coming from the southeast. As always rain is possible… the type you play through, not come off the course for.

Of course, as we’ve discussed many times this season, there is also the mental aspect of the upcoming major. If a player starts somewhat slowly in Scotland will their mind start to wander to The Open, thus hurting their chances of a rally?

Despite all the variables, let’s try to home in on some players to look out for in the betting markets this week at the Renaissance Club. Last year the top nine players on the leaderboard were all inside the top 28 for the week in Strokes Gained: Putting and the top five were all inside the top 16 in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Adam Scott (+5000 to win via BetMGM Sportsbook)

In my preamble above I spoke of links style specialists and Scott is certainly one of these. There is legitimate argument to say Scott should’ve claimed as many as three or more Claret Jugs in his lifetime. He notched up four straight top 10s between 2012-2015 and had his hand on each championship. Scott loves the challenge of links golf and furthermore he is in form this season so getting him at +5000 feels like a nice bonus despite the quality of field this week.

I’m often accused of Aussie bias – and there may be some legitimacy behind those accusations – but if tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler (+700) is a seven times better links player than Adam Scott, I’ll swim the Atlantic. Scott always hunkers down in the U.K. early and fine-tunes his links game at this time of year. He’s also 27th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Total and 24th in SG: Off-the-Tee. He knows how to think his way around and sits 35th in SG: Putting. Oh – and just for good measure… his birthday falls on Sunday.

Jordan Spieth (+2200 to win)

When it comes to playing with imagination, not many are better than Spieth. Already a proven links winner, Spieth becomes attractive thanks to his odds amongst the top throng of players here. At 25th on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green and a knack for putting on links greens, Spieth represents some value.

Those concerned about two missed cuts in his last three starts can be forgiven, but Spieth was also T10 a year ago at the Genesis Scottish Open, thwarted by two average rounds to go with two good ones. He also finished T5 at the Memorial between the missed cuts and is riding a season with five total top fives.

It seemed perfectly just to see Fowler return the winners circle recently at the Rocket Mortgage Classic given the fact he’d notched up nine top 20s from his previous 10 starts leading into the event. The fact of the matter is Fowler is trending hard AND he has won the Scottish Open before and has four top 15s in the Open Championship as well.

Fowler ranks eighth on TOUR in SG: Tee to Green and sits a healthy 30th in SG: Putting. He’s one to watch over the whole fortnight.

The Englishman is an intriguing character for me to watch over the next two weeks. A year ago he finished T6 while playing in second gear. He was riding the high of a U.S. Open win and it showed. Fitzpatrick has also lost in a playoff in the Scottish Open previously. Ranks 14th in SG: putting and 37th in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Now after the novelty of being a major winner has worn off a little the hunger to do it again has returned. And the passion to do it in his home major is evident. With zero top 10s in seven Open Championship starts Fitzpatrick has plenty to prove in this fortnight ahead.

I have to admit, Wyndham Clark is a player I just refused to believe was playing as well as he clearly has been. The new U.S. Open champion already showed us at the Wells Fargo Championship that he could mix it with the big boys yet despite that the majority of folks were just waiting for him to falter throughout the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club.

Instead, he proved not only could he win, but he could also arrest his own nerves down the stretch and still close. And so – I have to stop underestimating this man. And when you get plus money on a top 20, a result he achieved a year ago on the same track before taking his game to another level, it’s hard to ignore. Ranks 14th in SG: Total.

He just won on the DP World Tour and he’s only 22, so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. He also contended here last year with a T10 so sign me up for the momentum pick.

A tidy T6 a year ago and yet is value for a top 40 finish. Ranks respectable 57th on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee. In his 18 TOUR starts in 2023 he has missed nine cuts… but six of the nine made cuts were indeed top 40 results, six of them top 25s.

A local Scot who has more motivation than most to win. Has promised plenty, but delivered some, in his career thus far. Had a great chance last week in Denmark only to falter poorly on the back nine on Sunday. That’s a concern for outright bettors… not so much top-40 punters.

This week also sees the Barbasol Championship played in Kentucky. I’ve often called this “opposite” events “opportunity” events as it represents a great chance for up-and-coming players to secure a TOUR win or brings some veterans back to form.

As it pertains to betting on the event – you are going to see some very short numbers for players you may not know well. But rather than suggest you steer clear altogether, I see it as an opportunity week for bettors also.

There is every chance a long shot winner comes out of the blue, so why not just have some fun with five or 10 small unit dart throws and ride the wave?

You could spread five small bets on the likes of:

Akshay Bhatia +2800 – Wonderkid threatening to win soon.

Grayson Murray +5000 – Former champion who found form last week.

Harry Higgs +6600 – Always entertaining!

Russell Knox +10000 – Wily veteran at long odds.

Tano Goya +10000 – Passionate rookie coming off reasonable week.

Or use this as the week to pick some of your own names and educate yourself in the process about their background, their story, and find something to cheer home.

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