Lions vs. Ravens: Betting preview, odds and best bets
Another test is presented to the Detroit Lions this Sunday as the NFC North division leaders travel to Baltimore to play the first-place Ravens. The Lions have won four straight games since an overtime loss at home in Week 2. Still, Detroit is three-point dogs as the road team. The Lions have never won in Baltimore against the Ravens in three previous games.
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After being favorites in five straight games, the Lions are three-point dogs against the Ravens and their excellent defense, which ranks second in the NFL in fewest yards allowed. Baltimore is 5-1 all-time vs. Detroit and has never lost to the Lions at home. However, Detroit has scored 20+ points in 15 consecutive games which is a franchise record.
On the season, the Lions are 5-1 against the spread and the over has hit three times. For the Ravens, the under has hit in five of Baltimore’s six games.
For years Lions fans have had a dream: that their team would have both an explosive offense and a suffocating defense at the same time. That might be coming to fruition for the boys in Honolulu Blue. Behind Jared Goff, the Lions are one of the five most efficient offenses in the NFL. And in three of their last four games, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s unit has allowed fewer than 255 yards of offense by the opposition. Twice this season, the Detroit defense has not allowed a touchdown.
This stretch of the schedule, where Detroit plays three of four on the road, with all four against possible playoff teams, is considered the most challenging by experts. But Detroit has already dispatched one division leader on the road and now could do it again. There hasn’t been this much excitement around this team since the 1990s.
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Some NFL observers have announced that Lamar Jackson has returned to his MVP ways at quarterback for Baltimore. But, that ignores a lot and is faulty in its selective analysis.
Yes, Jackson is at the helm of the offense that rarely makes big mistakes. And yes, Baltimore is 4-2, and Jackson is on pace for more than 900 yards on the ground. And sure, Jackson rates first in the NFL in runs of 10+ yards (14) and ninth in yards per attempt (5.4). But, the former MVP is still a mediocre passer who disappears far too often.
An example of the over-reliance on Jackson are the 23 first downs he’s grabbed by running out of the pocket, out of the 53 for the Ravens overall. About a third of those first down plays are due to Jackson’s O-line failing to stop a rush. That “offense by improvisation” might work against Indianapolis and Cleveland (the only teams that Jackson has scored a rushing TD against), but it’s not a scheme you can rely on against better teams. Even lowly Indy was able to defeat the Ravens and sack Jackson four times.
As far as passing, Jackson is among NFL leaders in big-time passing rating, but he’s only thrown five TDs against three interceptions, and in three games he’s been shutout of TD passes. Only six NFL teams have achieved fewer first downs via the pass than Jackson and the Ravens.
The Lions could make Sunday a nightmare for Jackson through a defensive front that includes the frenetic energy of Aidan Hutchinson (4.5 sacks) and Alim McNeill. The Ravens’ O-line gets away with poor protection because Jackson can scramble, but their 8.5% sack percentage (16 total sacks of Jackson, who often uses his feet to avoid what would be sacks for other QBs) is among the worst in the NFL.
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This three-leg parlay has the stupendous odds of +5885 from DraftKings. If you win all three bets, your $100 bet nets you $5,885. What better way to enjoy the Lions’ first win in the city of Baltimore?
- Jared Goff: Over 246.5 passing yards
- Lamar Jackson: Under 1.5 touchdown passes
- Tie at Half AND Detroit Lions win
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We also strongly recommend the under for this game, which is set at 42.5 points.
The Detroit defense is playing with unmatched confidence. The linebacker corps has gone under the radar, but that group is doing a superb job at both rushing, run stopping and pass coverage. We like Aaron Glenn’s defense to have a second straight big game to meet the challenge against Baltimore.
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