Mariners-Twins prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, September 8

The Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays kicked their much-anticipated four-game series off with a bang on Thursday night, as ace Luis Castillo pitched the visitors to a tight 1-0 win. The Mariners (79-61) will look to make it two in a row on Friday, while the Rays (85-56) try not to let the Orioles get too far ahead in the AL East race. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Seattle will send its other ace, George Kirby (10-9, 3.39 ERA), to the mound, while Tampa counters with rookie Taj Bradley (5-7, 5.42).

The Mariners enter as narrow -118 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Rays at -102. The run total is set at 8.

Mariners-Rays picks: Friday, September 8

Injury report

Mariners

Out: OF Jarred Kelenic (left foot fracture), C Tom Murphy (left thumb sprain), 1B Evan White (left groin strain, hip surgery)

Rays

Day-to-day: SS Taylor Walls (groin soreness)
Out: OF Manuel Margot (right elbow loose bodies), RP Jason Adam (left oblique strain)

Starting pitchers

George Kirby vs. Taj Bradley

Kirby has been rock-steady for most of the summer, but the wheels have begun to wobble a bit for the righty of late. Since spinning a shutout over the Orioles back on Aug. 12 to lower his ERA to 3.11, he’s allowed 11 runs, 22 hits and three homers over 14.2 innings across his last three starts (while also battling an illness that caused the team to skip his turn in the rotation last week). Kirby lasted just three frames against the Mets in his most recent outing, coughing up four runs (three earned) on six hits.

Sent back down to the Minors after a dismal July (7.89 ERA over five starts), injuries up and down Tampa’s staff forced Bradley back into the rotation last week, and the results were ... well, just about as frustrating as they were in his first big-league go-round. One of the game’s top pitching prospects entering the year, no one doubts Bradley’s raw talent; the command, however, is another question, and the young righty walked a whopping five batters over five innings of two-run ball against the Guardians over the weekend. If he can’t get his offspeed pitches into the zone more consistently, he’ll continue to struggle.

Over/Under pick

Both of these starters are capable of dominating — we’ve seen it plenty of times before this season — but given their recent form and a relatively low number, I’m taking the over in this spot. Kirby is still rounding back into form after his illness, while Bradley has yet to prove he can throw enough strikes to be successful — especially against a Mariners squad that has a top-five walk rate against righties since August 1 and is top-five in the league in pitches per plate appearance.

Pick: Over 8

Moneyline pick

In the end, I just have a little more faith in Kirby to deliver something close to his A-game; hopefully he’s feeling better and got some rust shaken off last time out so he can go back to pitching the way he had been earlier in the second half. Seattle has been the better offense of these two lately and has the more trustworthy starter, making them an easy call at almost even odds.