Marlins-Mariners prediction, pick, how to watch

The Miami Marlins (37-29) visit the Seattle Mariners (31-33) for the first of their three-game series. First pitch commences Monday at 9:40 p.m. ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Mariners prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Here are the Marlins-Mariners MLB odds,

MLB Odds: Marlins-Mariners Odds

Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-196)

Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+162)

Over: 7.5 (-106)

Under: 7.5 (-114)

How To Watch Marlins vs. Mariners

TV: Bally Sports, Root Sports

Stream: MLB.tv

Time: 9:40 p.m. ET/ 6:40 p.m. PT

*See how to watch Marlins-Mariners LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread

Last 10: 8-2 (Second in the NL East)

Run Line Record: 32-34 (49%)

Over Record: 29-35-2 (45%)

Miami got off to an average start this season but they've taken off this month with wins in eight of their first 10 games. With yesterday's win against the White Sox, the Marlins locked up their fourth series win in their last five series – three of which (LAA, OAK, KCR) came via sweeps. While the recent schedule has aided their surge up the standings, there is no denying their stellar record. The Marlins own the third-best record in the NL and sit just 3.5 games back of the first-place Braves. That said, their middling offense continues to hinder their ability to cover as favorites. However, they find themselves as underdogs tonight and in an excellent spot to keep things tight against an offensively-weak Mariners team.

Lefty Jesus Luzardo (5-4) makes his 14th start of the season for the Marlins tonight. After a strong 2022 Luzardo is well on-pace for the most prolonged season of his career. He's already at 73.2 innings pitched after throwing a career-high 100.1 last season. The 25-year-old has been effective in this extended run thanks to a 3.79 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He remains a strong strikeout pitcher with a 10.5 K/9, 80th percentile K%, and 79th percentile Whiff%. Considering Luzardo holds a better-expected ERA than actual ERA, he could be in store for a monster performance tonight. Seattle has been an opposing pitcher's dream this year. The Mariners rank 19th in runs while striking out at the second-highest rate in the bigs.

While the buzz in Miami centers around Luis Arreaz, Jorge Soler was the one who single-handedly one them yesterday's ball game. Soler crushed two solo home runs to bump his season total to 19 (tied for second in the MLB) in their incredible comeback win.

Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread

Last 10: 3-7 (Fourth in the AL West)

Run Line Record: 31-33 (48%)

Over Record: 32-31-1 (51%)

Seattle is running out of time to figure things out as they sit 10 games back in a surprisingly competitive AL West. Despite the preseason hype surrounding the Mariners, they've watched as two other AL West teams (TEX and LAA) made a leap rather than themselves. Still, Seattle boasts a ton of talent on both sides of the plate. While their rookie starter needs to bounce back tonight, the key for them covering tonight lies on the offensive end of the diamond.

Rookie Bryce Miller (3-3) makes his eighth start of the season for Seattle tonight. The 24-year-old lit the majors on fire upon his initial call-up. Through his first five starts, he allowed just four runs, three walks, and 28 strikeouts in 31.1 innings. However, outings against the Yankees and Rangers soured the rookie after they pegged him for 15 combined runs in just seven innings of work. While his season ERA now sits at 4.46, he continues to hold an outstanding 0.97 WHIP. Additionally, he still has three shutouts in his first seven career starts. While the Marlins have surged up the NL standings, their offense remains frail as they rank just 26th in runs despite the fifth-highest BABIP in the league. Additionally, Miami owns a .050-point worse batting average against righties compared to lefties – setting Miller up for a strong bounce-back tonight.

Seattle has done plenty on the mound and defensively to keep them in games – ranking first in HR/9, BB/9, and K/9. Their issues lie on the offensive side of the plate. They should get a slight boost matched up against a lefty (against whom they own a .692 OPS compared to a .687 OPS against righties) but they need their “stars” to shine. That starts with Julio Rodriguez. The reigning Rookie of the Year started to heat up over the last week – batting 6/21 with two home runs over their five games. However, the big bats to keep an eye on belong to Ty France (9/20 over their last five) and Tescor Hernandez (6/18 over their last five).

Final Marlins-Mariners Prediction & Pick

While neither pitcher has eye-popping season-long numbers, they're both in a strong spot for a rebound. Expect a low-scoring affair tonight thanks to strong young arms on the bump.

Final Marlins-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Under 7.5 (-114)