Marlins vs. Braves prediction and odds for Monday, April 24

It’s Spencer Strider day in Atlanta as the Braves host the Miami Marlins for Game 1 of a four-game midweek series in the NL East The Braves currently sit atop the East at 14-8 and the Marlins are third at 12-10. The Braves come into this matchup losers of four-straight after a very hot start to the season. Can Strider stop the slide?

Strider is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in four starts this year. He is countered by Edward Cabrera who is 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA in his four starts. The Braves are big favorites with their second-year ace on the mound at home. Let’s take a look at the odds.

Marlins vs. Braves odds, run line and total

Marlins vs. Braves prediction and pick

Strider has exactly nine strikeouts in each of his four outings this year. That adds up to 36 strikeouts in 22.0 innings of work because the Braves are still very careful with their young arm. It’s also partly on Strider who isn’t very economical with his pitches. He’s been near 100 pitches in each of his starts and has yet to go longer than six innings. That’s his next evolution as a starting pitcher, but for now he’s giving the Braves a dominant five or six innings every time out.

Strider is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his fastball 61% of the time and his slider 34% of the time. The other five percent is his changeup which he’s only broken out 18 times this year, all to lefties. However, his small repertoire is insanely effective. He is 94th percentile in fastball velocity and 83rd percentile in fastball spin rate. His heater only allows a .292 wOBA so far this year and his slider, a .165. He hasn’t given up a single hit on his changeup and it has a 75% whiff rate. His slider has a 52% whiff rate in a much larger sample. It is simply impossible to touch his stuff.

Over the past week, the Braves are 1-4 and in those four losses they’ve combined for nine runs. They are 20th in OPS over that stretch and haven’t done much damage with the bats. Sean Murphy and Matt Olson have been red hot to start the season, but even they’ve cooled some. With Strider on the mound and Atlanta’s offense struggling, I’ll take the under.

Pick: Under 7.5 (+100)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change