Matchweek 17 in The Premier League: Two Bets for Every Match
Matchweek 17 follows midweek Europa and Champions League matches for many of the Premier League’s clubs. Couple those matches with the three league matches in the previous ten days and injuries and fatigue have to be factored into your handicap of the upcoming weekend.
Again, the goal is to find two value bets from every match. Lets dive in and remember to also value where a match is being played as well as each club’s recent form.
Friday, December 15, 2023
Nottingham Forest (+340) v. Tottenham (-140) | Draw: +300
Spurs seemed to right the ship this past weekend at home v. Newcastle after going winless in the previous five while Forest grabbed a point v. Wolves in their last outing, but Steve Cooper’s standing remains on shaky ground. City Ground is the site for this one which should help Forest and Tottenham is still prone to give up opportunities to their opponent. Expect both teams to score, but better value lies in OVER 3.5 Total Goals (+140). Spurs ML (-140) has value as does Son to score and Tottenham to win (+180).
Saturday, December 16, 2023
Chelsea (-450) v. Sheffield Utd (+1100) | Draw: +550
Stamford Bridge has been a house of horrors for the Blues. The perfect tonic may be the Blades. Sheffield have scored a mere four goals on the road while conceding 20. Chelsea controlled possession over 70% of the time in their recent loss at Everton. Expect more of the same in this one. Chelsea OVER 7.5 corners (+100) is a direct result of that possession advantage. The Blues to win to Nil (-110) carries a little value as well.
Bournemouth (-200) v. Luton Town (+500) | Draw: +350
Only Liverpool (17 points) is playing better than Bournemouth (16 points) over the last seven weeks of the season. Andoni Iraola’s immediate success with the Cherries has been borderline ridiculous. While Luton Town have been more competitive of late, that bar was set quite low, and they still are just 1-1-4 in their last six. With the match at Vitality Stadium, expect a quick start by Bournemouth. The Cherries ML 1H (-105) is worth a play as is Bournemouth to win by two or more goals (+300).
Manchester City (-550) v. Crystal Palace (+1350) | Draw: +650
Trying to find a positive for the melting Palace? Try this. Only Manchester United (3) have more wins at the Etihad than Palace (2) since Pep took over City in 2016. That said, recent form while not overly impressive for the Citizens is still far superior to that of the Eagles. The trick is finding value somewhere on the board with this one. In addition to playing poorly, Palace is also beat up. City have played plenty the last couple of weeks and also have been forced to deal with injuries but are just too deep for any of those details to matter. The Citizens have not lost in their last 18 at the Etihad. The streak goes to 19. Manchester City to win by 2 (+130) and even by 3 (+290) are worth a look. Pep’s squad OVER 7.5 corners (-110) is also in play.
Newcastle (-120) v. Fulham (+290) | Draw: +280
St. James Park is the site for this one and the Magpies need some home cooking as they are dealing with an insane number of injuries as well as a heart-breaking expulsion from Champions’ League at the hands of Captain America and AC Milan earlier this week. Fulham, meanwhile, have become an offensive dynamo of late scoring 16 goals in their last four matches. That said, the Cottagers are winless in their last seven on the road. Expect Newcastle to try and keep it tight in their own end but Fulham is an attacking team of late. The Cottagers OVER 4.5 corners (-125) is live. A true sweat is for this one to end in a draw (+280).
Burnley (+240) v. Everton (+110) | Draw: +240
Turf Moor is the site for this battle between clubs who may be neighbors in the standings today but not for long the way the Toffees are playing (4-1-1 in their last six). The 10-point deduction has galvanized Sean Dyche’s club. Burnley’s left back position has issues due to injuries and that means more work for goaltender James Trafford. Doubtful he is asked to make ten saves as he was in the draw against Brighton, but he will be busier than Jordan Pickford. Take Everton ML (+110) and UNDER 2.5 Total Goals (-135).
Sunday, December 17, 2023
Brentford (+230) v. Aston Villa (+105) | Draw: +270
Unai Emery and Aston Villa have been tremendous this season with resounding victories the last two weeks over City and Arsenal. While dominant at Villa Park, the Villains have been less dominant on the road securing just nine points on the season with a goal differential of -5 (10GF, 15GA). Expect a low-scoring affair in this one but Aston Villa to escape with a win (+105). A sprinkle on Ollie Watkins to knock one in against his former club is also viable (+120).
Arsenal (-210) v. Brighton (+525) | Draw: +360
This is one of the matchups that appears prime for a lopsided victory for the home side. Yes, Arsenal played PSV earlier this week in Champions’ League, but Arteta rested many of his regulars. De Zerbi’s squad played Marseille in Europa League action without the luxury of resting his team which entered the match already banged up. No club earns more corners than the Gunners. Arsenal OVER 2.5 goals (+145) and Arsenal -2 (+280) both fit this narrative.
West Ham (+120) v. Wolverhampton (+220) | Draw: +250
Cutting right to the chase, Wolves are without a win in their last ten Sundays including six losses away from home. Couple that with the Hammers winning each of their last three against Wolves at London Stadium and while it should be close, West Ham should prevail (ML +120). Sprinkle a little on the Hammers OVER 1.5 goals (+110) as well.
Liverpool (-200) v. Manchester United (+500) | Draw: +240
Matchweek 17 closes with this match. Last time the Red Devils visited Anfield they left on the wrong end of a 7-0 match. They have scored just once in their last seven visits to the storied park. Add in the fact that Manchester United may be down as many as ten players due to injury (including Bruno Fernandes) and it’s a tall ask of Erik Ten Hag’s club. Held without a goal in three of their last four overall, can Manchester United respond to this current crisis with a strong performance? Truly doubtful it happens at Anfield. In fact, take Liverpool -2 (+165) with OVER 11.5 Total Corners very live (+120).
Enjoy Matchweek 17 and enjoy the sweat.
