Premier League: Matchweek 19 Best Bets

We deserve coal in our stocking after our predictions for Matchweek 18. We did cash big on all things West Ham, but more than a few of our big swings in other matches while close did not cash (thanks, Jordan Ayew). We finished down a little over 3 units.

Its on to Matchweek 19 and a full slate of ten matches which means a minimum of twenty bets.

December 26, 2023

Newcastle (-200) v. Nottingham Forest (+525) | Draw: +333

Not sure which club needs three points more. Newcastle have just one win in their last six overall and Forest have one point in their last six. Trying to find some sunshine, the Magpies have won their last seven at St. James Park keeping a clean sheet in six of those matches. Due to an abundance of injuries on their back line, expect Newcastle to park the bus early in their own end as they look to be responsible defensively. Nottingham Forest UNDER 0.5 1H goals (+110). Ultimately, a Newcastle win is the play but there is no value unless we play Newcastle -2 (+320). That is a sweat, but the Magpies are the better side.

Sheffield United (+135) v. Luton Town (+200) | Draw: +225

Bramall Lane is the site for this Bottom of the Table Battle. The home club has earned four points in four matches under Manager Chris Wilder while the Hatters have climbed within site of Nottingham Forest and free of the relegation zone. That said, neither of these teams is doing much on the offensive end. Luton has yet to score a goal in the 1 half on the road while Sheffield have scored only 4 goals in the 1 half this season. UNDER 0.5 goals in the 1 half (+155) is worth a look as is Sheffield United to win to Nil (+280). Know that if this match were at Kenilworth Road, we may well take the Hatters for both bets.

Bournemouth (+120) v. Fulham (+210) | Draw: +250

The Cherries return home to Vitality Stadium riding a 3-game winning streak. Bournemouth has actually not suffered a PL loss since November 1. Fulham on the other hand have gone eight straight without a win away from Craven Cottage. Eventually the Cherries will suffer a setback but Boxing Day will not be the time. Bournemouth ML (+120) and OVER 1.5 Total Goals for the Cherries (+100) are in play.

Burnley (+625) v. Liverpool (-250) | Draw: +400

2 worst hosts 2 best in this match. The Clarets have actually fared far better away (8pts.) from Turf Moor than at home (3pts.). Burnley will be looking to build on their recent win over Fulham while Liverpool will look to extend their unbeaten streak to 12 in the PL. The Reds have scored at least once in 13 straight away from Anfield. They have six straight wins on Boxing Day and will make it seven with a convincing win this year. Liverpool -2 (+230) is live. With their injury issues on the left side in their own end, a bigger sweat may well be Liverpool to win to Nil (+145).

Manchester United (+155) v. Aston Villa (+155) | Draw: +260

Without a goal in their last three and with just two goals and a single win in their last five, Manchester Utd is struggling to say the least. Meanwhile, Villa comes to Old Trafford without a loss since November 5. The Red Devils showed against Liverpool they can park the bus and play for an opportunity on the counterattack. UNDER 2.5 goals (+125) is realistic but expect the Villains to apply consistent pressure resulting in OVER 10.5 Total Corners (-120).

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December 27, 2023

Chelsea (-135) v. Crystal Palace (+360) | Draw: +280

Blues’ fans are still wondering why Raheem Sterling did not pass the ball at Wolves in the 1 half while on a breakaway…with TWO teammates. His failed attempt on goal may have propelled Chelsea to victory but instead they scored late but lost 2-1 at Wolves. Somehow, Chelsea are 3-3-3 at Stamford Bridge and Palace are 3-3-3 on the road this season. The Eagles have scored just one goal in the 1 half in their last seven but have been held scoreless on the road this season just once. BTTS (-120) is worth a sprinkle as is UNDER 2.5 Total Goals (-120). If you are playing each of these, might as well spray a little on the Draw (+280) and sweat it.

Brentford (-105) v. Wolverhampton (+280) | Draw: +250

The Bees have won three of their last five at Gtech Community Stadium. They are rested having not played on the weekend v. Man City. Brentford will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing 2-1 loss to Villa. They face a Wolves team that is more inconsistent than dangerous. Brentford ML (-105) and OVER 2.5 Total Goals (-115) are in play.

Everton (+450) v. Manchester City (-175) | Draw: +310

The Toffees are at a minimum pesky to play against. They always make it uncomfortable for their opponent. It will be no different for City. Kevin De Bruyne is near a return to the pitch but not yet. The Citizens have only kept two clean sheets away from home while Everton have kept clean sheets in each of their last two at Goodison Park. Fresh off their victory in the Club World Cup, it is not a stretch to expect City to pressure Everton. OVER 10.5 Total Corners (+130) will be the result of said pressure along with OVER 2.5 Total Goals (-145).

December 28, 2023

Brighton (+155) v. Tottenham (+150) | Draw: +280

The Seagulls have failed to score in only 1 of their 18 PL matches this season but have not scored in the 1H in any of their last three. Tottenham, meanwhile, have not allowed a 1H goal in their last four (3-0-1). Lets sprinkle a little on Spurs 1 half ML (+185) and Spurs ML (+155) for the match. Extra sweat is Son to score in the victory (+280) as Tottenham keeps rolling and Brighton fails to find solid form.

Arsenal (-300) v. West Ham United (+800) | Draw: +450

The Hammers are playing well having gone 4-1-1 in their last six, but other than that, the stats are overwhelmingly in favor of the Gunners. Arsenal are also 4-1-1 in their last six. They are unbeaten in their last eight (6-2-0) against the Hammers. They are unbeaten at home this season (7-2-0). West Ham would be well-served to start fast for Arsenal have scored 14 2H goals while conceding a total of only 8 goals at Emirates. Bottom-line is Arsenal seems to have yet to play their best football but are consistently playing as you’d expect from the Top of the Table. Arsenal -2 (+200) fits the current narrative as does OVER 9.5 Total Corners (-145).

Enjoy Boxing Day and the rest of Matchweek 19 on NBC Sports and Peacock.