Betting the Premier League: Two Bets for Every Match of the Weekend
Matchweek 16 begins less than 48 hours after Tottenham’s wretched home loss to West Ham. The Hammers win away from London Stadium was one of a handful of surprises of Matchweek 15. Villa upsetting City was not shocking but the manner in which they controlled play raised more than a few eyebrows (with the exception of Sir Alex Ferguson). Many saw Arsenal scoring plenty at Luton Town but no one called for the Gunners to bury four but win by just one against the Hatters.
In total, we took it on the chin betting on the 10 matches of Matchweek 15 losing 2.07 units. If there was one lesson we took from the week it was to not underestimate the value of playing at home. With that, we dive into Matchweek 16.
Crystal Palace (+525) v. Liverpool (-200) | Draw: +340
We know to value playing at home, but it does not appear that the Eagles value Selhurst Park with just one home win on the campaign and that one win was back on September 3. Liverpool enter the match with an opportunity to claim the top spot on the Table with a win. Expect them to pressure a Crystal side early and often. Klopp’s squad may not score early but the pressure will at least produce corners. Take Liverpool OVER 5.5 corners (-135). Eventually, the gates open. Mo Salah to score his 200 for Liverpool and lead the Reds to victory (+140) has some value.
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
Sheffield United (+340) v. Brentford (-130) | Draw: +270
Certainly not the sexiest of matchups on the fixture. The Blades have not scored in their last two matches and have buried only three in their last six. Not surprising they have trailed at both halftime and end of match in three straight. The Bees have not been in great form either, but they are the better side. Brentford ML (-130) at Bramall Stadium is a wager placed with consideration given to the home side. For that reason, we’ll also play OVER 2.5 Total Goals (-115) as it has hit in 73% of Sheffield’s matches. Where we disrespect the Blades at home is sprinkling a little on Brentford 1H ML (+130).
Brighton (-210) v. Burnley (+525) | Draw: +360
Burnley have struggled to find positive results. Their lone win in their last eight was at home against Sheffield United who played with ten for most of the match. That said, Brighton is winless in their last six at Falmer Stadium v. Burnley (0-4-2). Both sides have to be feeling fatigued with three matches in the last week and each side lacking depth. BTTS (-145) has hit in 100% of Brighton matches this season. The sweat will be assuming fatigue leads to corners. OVER 10.5 Total Corners (+100) may be asking for one corner more than this duo can offer but worth the risk.
Manchester United (-185) v. Bournemouth (+425) | Draw: +350
The Red Devils have never lost at Old Trafford to Bournemouth. That said, the Cherries have played better since naming Andoni Iraola as manager winning their last two road matches and scoring two or more in four straight. United at home coming off a dominant win over Chelsea however, is too appealing. Take the Red Devils 1H (+100) and OVER 6.5 corners for the match (+105).
Wolverhampton (-120) v. Nottingham Forest (+320) | Draw: +260
Wolves have not lost to Forest since 2018. More current and probably more valuable info finds Wolverhampton with two straight wins at home and Forest with four straight losses and just one win in their last 11 matches overall. Expect Wolverhampton to claim victory at Molineaux and Steve Cooper to be removed as manager of the Tricky Trees shortly thereafter. Wolves ML (-120) and OVER 2.5 Total Goals (-110) each carry value.
Aston Villa (+240) v. Arsenal (+105) | Draw: +270
The highlight of the weekend fixture without question. The Villains are a perfect 7-0-0 at Villa Park. Arsenal begins the weekend atop the Table and with just a single loss on the campaign. Each side has been stingy in their own end to begin matches with Aston Villa yet to allow a 1H goal at home and Arsenal allowing just two 1H goals on the road this season. A draw in the 1H (+120) is plausible. Aston Villa have not been in this spot. How fatigued are they following that emotional win over City? Arsenal to eventually bury one and win (+105) is a logical conclusion.
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
Everton (+195) v. Chelsea (+125) | Draw: +260
This match carries plenty of intrigue as The Toffees have rallied following their 10-point deduction. If not for that penalty, Sean Dyche’s side would be top half of the Table. Chelsea meanwhile have been a difficult club to figure out. Certainly in better form overall than a year ago, but not consistent to say the least. Take Everton OVER 1.5 Goals (+140) and Everton OVER 4.5 corners (-130) as the Toffees get it done at Goodison Park.
Fulham (+138) v. West Ham United (+185) | Draw: +250
The Cottagers have been a revelation of late scoring 11 goals in their last three outings. Meanwhile, West Ham is coming off a solid win at Spurs. Tough assignment for the Hammers, though, asking them to finish this hectic stretch on the road against a side pushing the pace on offense. Fulham prevails. The Cottagers ML (+138) is likely. West Ham UNDER 4.5 Total Corners (-110) is the result of Fulham controlling possession at Craven Cottage.
Luton Town (+1600) v. Manchester City (-650) | Draw: +775
City having gone winless in their last four and the return of Rodri and Grealish to the lineup spells doom for Luton Town. Expect Pep’s squad to start fast. City OVER 1.5 1H Goals (+145) and OVER 3.5 1H Corners (+110) would surprise not a soul at Kenilworth Road. A hedge of sorts is OVER 1.5 Total 1H Goals (+100).
Tottenham (+115) v. Newcastle (+200) | Draw: +280
Spurs are reeling having gone winless in their last five (0-1-4) and having surrendered at least two goals in each of the five. Tottenham have conceded seven 2H goals in their last five. Meanwhile, Newcastle enters the contest following a 3-0 loss at Everton. Tottenham’s style affords the opposition too many opportunities. Expect Eddie Howe to lock things down in his own end and take advantage of those miscues by Spurs. Newcastle United ML (+200) will be a sweat but is worth the swing. Newcastle OVER 4.5 corners (-165) follows that narrative.
It has been a fantastic stretch of football for Premier League fans the past ten days. Storylines up and down the Table. Enjoy the weekend and the sweat of a few PL wagers.
