Betting the Premier League: Two Plays from Every Match
Following an 11-10 (+3.86 units) tour throughout the league last weekend, lets dive into Matchweek 14 in the Premier League. Remember, we are placing a minimum of two bets per match. Some we will hold our nose while making, but we are committed to finding value for fans of every side of every match.
Arsenal (-375) v. Wolverhampton (+950) | Draw: +500
Wolverhampton’s play has been consistently reckless. The Gunners have been anything but reckless. Gabriel Jesus has scored 6 goals in 7 games against Wolves. Jesus to score and Arsenal to win (+175). Because Wolves take chances and get a bit loose at times, OVER 10.5 Total Corners (+100) has merit. Looking for a bigger sweat? Arsenal OVER 2.5 Goals (+115).
Brentford (-225) v. Luton Town (+550) | Draw: +360
Luton Town have been more competitive of late, but The Hatters have scored in one 1 Half this entire season. Take the Bees to win the 1H (-110) as Brentford have scored in the 1H in 5 of 6 home matches. On the road, expect Luton Town to look to keep things tight in their own end in the opening 45’. Luton Town UNDER 1.5 1H corners (+100). Looking for a bigger sweat? Brentford to Win to Nil (+210).
Burnley (-125) v. Sheffield United (+333) | Draw: +270
This is a match of massive consequence in terms of relegation. No two ways around it. Each side has performed horribly this season. Burnley has scored 2 1H goals this season at Turf Moor. Sheffield have yet to score in the 1H on the road. A scoreless 1H (+175) is worth a sprinkle as no doubt tensions will be high early. If that sweat scares you off, Burnley to win the 1H (+135) and to win the match (-125) are solid looks.
Nottingham Forest (+175) v. Everton (+155) | Draw: +230
Forest is usually strong at City Ground, but Taiwo Awoniyi is doubtful, and The Reds are 0-4-5 in their last 9 matches without the gifted scorer. That said, Everton owns the worst shot conversion rate in the PL (5.1%). Everton OVER 4.5 corners (-135) has some value as The Toffees aim for their 3 straight win on the road. Everton to win a low-scoring affair (+155).
Newcastle (-110) v. Manchester Utd (+270) | Draw: +275
St. James Park has been a fortress for the home club with Newcastle winning 5 straight at home scoring 1 in all 7 and outscoring their opponent 18-4 overall at home. Let’s not ignore United, though. Manchester United have won three straight and kept a clean sheet in each. Gotta lean to Newcastle to protect their home turf. Newcastle to win (-110). Man United have scored only 4 1H goals on the road this season. Newcastle to win 1H (+140).
Bournemouth (+250) v. Aston Villa (-105) | Draw: +290
The Villains have been one of the best stories of the season thus far as they currently sit in 4 on the Table. Bournemouth have been quite competitive at home but are not disciplined enough to eventually handle Aston Villa. Take Villa to win the 1H (+140) as Bournemouth have failed to score in the 1H at home 71% of the time. Consider Aston Villa to win the match (-105). That said, the Villains have conceded 2H goals in 6 of last 7 overall and Bournemouth have scored a 2H goal in 4 straight. BTTS in the second half (+150) worth a look.
Chelsea (-145) v. Brighton (+333) | Draw: +310
The Blues have not won at Stamford Bridge since August, but the Seagulls have lost 8 of their last 10 at Chelsea. Something’s gotta give. Nicolas Jackson (+130 to score anytime) has yet to get on track at home but is looking more dangerous by the game. Not expecting a lot of goals here, but there should be play in both offensive ends. OVER 9.5 Total Corners (-120) has a little value left. Looking for a greater sweat? UNDER 2.5 Total Goals (+138) is live.
Liverpool (-400) v. Fulham (+1000) | Draw: +525
This looks to be the most lopsided affair of Matchweek 14. The Reds are a perfect 6-0 at Anfield having outscored their opponents 17-2. In addition, they have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 at home (have not allowed a goal at home in 273’). Meanwhile, Fulham is offensively challenged with last week’s 3-2 win over a sloppy Wolves being the exception. Here’s a couple solid plays: Liverpool to win to Nil (+115). Fulham UNDER 0.5 goals (+100).
West Ham (+100) v. Crystal Palace (+270) | Draw: +250
Palace is coming off 2 straight ugly losses to Luton Town and Everton. How do they respond? Regardless, West Ham is the logical favorite at London Stadium, but if Jarrod Bowen is ruled out, the game script changes. UNDER 2.5 Total Goals (-120) is very much in play and a game played predominantly in the between the penalty boxes is likely which means UNDER 9.5 corners (-120) becomes possible. The Hammers are still likely to prevail (+100) even if it is a low-scoring affair.
Manchester City (-375) v. Tottenham (+850) | Draw: +525
Finding value with anything City-related is difficult especially at Etihad. Pep’s squad typically plays sound defense in the 1H at home having only conceded 1 goal in the 1H at home all season. City have scored in every 1H at home this season and we got burned last week with this play but lets run it back – 1H OVER 1.5 Total Goals (-110). The corners market also has some meat on the bone. After a tremendous start to the campaign, Spurs have been loose in their own end of late. City preys on that. Total Corners OVER 10.5 (-105) is solid. Not opposed to OVER 11.5 (+160).
That is a full menu for Matchweek 14. We’ll be back in a few days as Matchweek 15 begins Tuesday.
