2024 MLB Season Leaders: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Here’s the thing about betting longshots: It’s incredibly fun. Do they often win? Of course not. But what is Spring Training for aside from unbridled optimism?

In any case, I’ve decided to make a compromise in this article. Give you some vegetables with your pizza, if you will. For every longshot season leader future I’m about to outline, I’ll also be supplying the boring bet that will probably end up cashing.

Fair? Fair.

Let’s dive in.

Home Run Leader

Olson is the epitome of an unexciting future. Though he’s not the favorite to lead the league in home runs for the second consecutive season, he trails only Aaron Judge (+350) in terms of odds. The LHB crushed a career-high 54 long balls in 2023, a figure which was backed up by an MLB-best 50.1 expected home runs. Olson was 99th percentile in both hard hit rate (55.5%) and average exit velocity (93.7), all while sitting in the 97th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.558). Crucially, Olson also happens to be the closest thing this generation has to an iron man. No one has played more games than the first baseman since the beginning of 2020. When it comes to counting stats, availability is the most important thing.

This is a curious number for Garcia. While Mookie Betts (+8000) and Marcell Ozuna (+8000) have considerably longer odds despite similar production in 2023, Garcia feels like the one of the group that’s most likely to have a repeat performance. The 30-year-old is still in the middle of his “prime” years and he’s always carried an insane amount of raw power. Garcia’s approach at the plate is also perfect for someone looking to rack up long balls. To wit, Garcia’s 46.9% fly ball rate was the 12th-highest qualified mark in baseball last season. His 16.1% barrel rate was good for seventh-highest. That’s probably why the slugger trailed only the aforementioned Olson and Kyle Schwarber (+750) in terms of expected home runs (43.1). Garcia gets to face the Athletics’ pitching staff 13 times, too. That certainly doesn’t hurt.

Strikeout Leader

Basically, if you’re betting on anyone other than Strider to lead the league in strikeouts, you’re banking on the 25-year-old missing a few starts. That’s all there is to it. Thanks primarily to a 36.8% strikeout rate that was in its own stratosphere, Strider racked up 44 more punchouts than anyone else in baseball in 2023. That’s while sitting just 18th in innings pitched, by the way. Unfortunately, assuming full health for a man that throws in the triple digits is a fool’s errand. Strider deserves to be the odds-on favorite, but that doesn’t mean you have to bet it.

If you were living under a rock last season — or you just happened to not watch a lot of Royals baseball — allow me to get you up to speed on Ragans. Formerly a first-round pick and top prospect in the Rangers’ system, the LHP was traded to Kansas City in the middle of 2023 in exchange for Aroldis Chapman. The Royals made Ragans a starter and he was suddenly a radar gun savant, even averaging 98.0 mph with his fastball in a late August appearance against the Athletics. In total, Ragans registered a 31.1% strikeout rate in his 12 starts, collecting 89 strikeouts in just 71.2 innings. Obviously, we’re dealing in the realm of small samples here, but by the eye test alone, Ragans has the raw stuff to be an elite strikeout arm. It’s simply about throwing enough innings. Including the minors, Ragans tossed 124.1 frames last year. In 2022, across three levels, that number was 134.2. Is a jump to 180 or 190 innings really that crazy? I’ll take my chances.

Hits Leader

Another Braves player? They’re a really good team. It’s that easy. In fact, you could certainly make the case that Acuna Jr. is currently the best hitter in baseball, on the heels of an MVP campaign that saw him slash .337/.416/.596 across an NL-high 735 plate appearances. That last part is key. Acuna took every single one of those PAs as Atlanta’s leadoff man, hitting atop a lineup that turned itself over more than any other in baseball. Acuna also cut his strikeout rate from 2022 in half, going from 23.6% to a microscopic 11.4%. Less strikeouts means more contact. More contact means more balls in play. More balls in play mean more hits. Acuna finished 2023 with an NL-best 562 batted ball events. According to Statcast, Acuna’s expected batting average was .357. No other qualified player could even claim a figure over .330. That’s the blueprint for hoarding hits. He’s in a tier of his own at this point.

The case for Carroll is pretty straightforward. Acuna’s path to leading baseball in hits last season was essentially: Former top prospect with elite tools has career year while batting leadoff. Well, Carroll is a former top prospect. Heck, he just unanimously won NL Rookie of the Year. Carroll also bats leadoff for the Diamondbacks, settling into the role in a seemingly permanent basis by the middle of August in 2023. As for elite tools, Carroll was deemed to have a 65-grade bat by MLB Pipeline in his final season of prospect eligibility and, maybe most importantly, 80-grade speed. Carroll is an absolute burner, ranking in the 99th percentile of sprint speed last year. Yet, despite his wheels and contact ability, Carroll posted a pretty pedestrian .325 BABIP with a mere 14 infield hits. With a little more luck in 2024, that’s a clear area for growth. It’s in a reasonable range of Carroll’s outcomes that he hits over .300 in his sophomore campaign. Another dip in strikeout rate would be equally rational. Again, we’re talking about someone with incredible skills.

The Crown Is Yours: and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.