Odds, First-Round Matchups and Picks for 2023
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Monday night at T-Mobile Park in Seattle (8:00 p.m. ET), the MLB's annual Home Run Derby will take place, pitting eight of the league's biggest sluggers against each other in a single-elimination bracket, using the same format the league adopted in 2015.
Two-time winner Pete Alonso of the New York Mets has been established as the betting favorite, even though the man who put an end to his perfect Home Run Derby record - Julio Rodriguez - is not only in the field, but slated to face Alonso in round one.
Odds to Win 2023 Home Run Derby
Sitting just behind Alonso in the odds to win the 2023 Home Run Derby is Toronto's Vlad Guerrero Jr. While Vladdy has never captured the derby title, he did set the record for most homers in a single round (40) during his only other appearance in 2019.
Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. (+500) is a surprising third-favorite, given that this is his first time in the derby and he had never reached the 20-home plateau before this year (though that's largely due to injuries).
Seattle center fielder and hometown favorite Rodriguez, who finished runner-up last year as a rookie, is fourth at +550. Adolis Garcia of Texas rounds out the top five at +650, while Tampa's Randy Arozarena (+950), L.A. Dodgers' Mookie Betts (+1000), and Baltimore's Adley Rutschman (+1700) are considered the longshots.
Home Run Derby First-Round Odds
The first-round matchups feature a pair of unusually lopsided odds for All-Star festivities. Not only is Guerrero a -210 favorite over Betts, but Robert is -215 chalk against Derby-newcomer Rutschman.
The narrowest odds are found in the Garcia vs. Arozarena matchup, where Garcia is a slight -140 favorite.
As mentioned, the matchup between Alonso and Rodriguez is a rematch from last year's second round. Alonso headed into to that matchup a perfect 7-0 lifetime in individual Home Run Derby rounds - winning three rounds in 2019, three in 2021, and his first-round matchup in 2022. But Rodriguez - who was a rookie in both the derby and the Majors - routed Alonso 31-23 to advance to the final, where he fell 19-18 to Juan Soto.
Home Run Derby Picks
My favorite pick to win, given the odds, is Rodriguez at +550. He has the toughest first-round matchup against Alonso, but it's a matchup he dominated last year. In fact, he was the only player to hit 30 homers in a single round in 2022, and he did it twice.
If this was a bracket contest, or if all the players had the same odds, I would take Alonso to win in light of his track record. But with Rodriguez's odds nearly twice as long, he holds considerably better value.
In terms of first-round matchups, I can't not take Rutschman at +175. He and Robert are both newcomers to the event and, at 6'2, 230 pounds, the Orioles' catcher has the frame to go toe-to-toe with everyone on this list. It's always hard to predict how any first-timer will do in the Home Run Derby. For every Alonso, who wins in their first try, there's a Mike Piazza, who looks like a deer in the headlights. So consider this a bet against the unknown quantity that is Luis Robert Jr. more than a bet on the unknown quantity that is Adley Rutschman.
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