MLB Home Run Odds: Aaron Judge slight favorite for most HRs

The MLB season is just around the corner, and baseball is already making headlines with its rule changes and adjustments to the game. But 2023 promises to be an entertaining season after all of the off-season fireworks and player movement, and we will be seeing plenty of home runs, as we have in recent years.

Numbers on the long ball took a slight dip in 2022 when “only” 5,215 home runs were hit compared to 5,940 the year before. But there were some impressive individual chases and statistics last year, most notably Aaron Judge and his AL-record-breaking count of 62 dingers. Kyle Schwarber hit 46 for the Phillies, and Mike Trout had an impressive 40 despite playing in only 119 games.

Aaron Judge Slight Favorite To Be MLB Home Run Leader

So who is on the slate to lead the league in home runs in 2023? There is no outright favorite, but some of the more recognizable names are at the top.

Judge is still the outright leader and technical favorite, coming in at +600 to be the leader. He had a bout with free agency in the off-season but decided to return to the Yankees and their hitter-friendly ballpark, helping keep him atop the odds list. Had he gone somewhere like San Francisco, where home runs are harder to come by, his odds might have looked a bit different.

Behind him is Trout, who likely would have had the second-most home runs had he been able to stay healthy. But he has dealt with injuries over the past three years that have kept his numbers down, but he still has the ability to be one of the league leaders in the category. His number is +800.

The power-hitting Pete Alonso (+900) is in the top-3, as he was one of four players to hit 40+ homers last season. One of the best value bests could be Yordan Alvarez, who hit 37 dingers in 2022 despite taking nearly 130 fewer at-bats than Alonso. His number is +1000.

At-bat counts and injuries will always play a role in home run totals. Speaking of which, Fernando Tatis Jr. rounds out the top-5 in favorites to lead the league in homers, with a +1000 designation. He has missed significant time in the recent past, and will also begin the season by serving the last 21 games of a suspension.

The season will officially begin during the final days of March, but bettors will be keeping a closer eye on the home run totals as we near the month of September.