MLB Home Run Prop Picks for Tuesday

sportsbookreview.com

18 April 2023

Shopping for the best available prices might be more valuable in the home run prop market than any other because there are huge disparities in the MLB odds across our best sportsbooks. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers and offers his top MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday.

Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tuesday’s MLB home run props

Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 home runs (+700 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐
Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 home runs (+500 via BetMGM) ⭐
Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 home runs (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐

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Tuesday’s MLB home run prop picks

Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 home runs (+700 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐

5 Second Chance Bets up to $50 Each

The second-year Cub has flashed power potential against southpaws with a .198 ISO and 35.6 hard-hit rate across his 128 career plate appearances. Suzuki is also squaring the ball up through four games since returning from an oblique injury with a 55.6 hard-hit rate.

Facing Oakland Athletics starter Ken Waldichuk sweetens the deal, too.

The 25-year-old lefty will be making just his 11th career start, and Waldichuk has served up a target-worthy 2.56 HR/9 and 20.0% HR/FB rate to right-handed batters.

Add the wind forecasted to be blowing out at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum at a decent clip Tuesday night, and Suzuki’s long odds caught my attention.

I’ve added a second star to this recommendation because of the huge advantage presented by the PointsBet odds. The difference in the +440 price and +700 number is a positive expected value of 48%.

Now we just need a long fly to connect with the long odds.

Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 home runs (+500 via BetMGM) ⭐

$1,000 back in Bonus Bets

This recommendation begins and ends with Washington Nationals righty Josiah Gray resembling a batting-practice coach and surrendering a career 2.98 HR/9 to left-handed batters.

The switch-hitting Rutschman has also done more damage against right-handed hurlers during his short career. The backstop boasts a career .229 ISO against righties, and his barrel percentage is also up to 9.6% to start 2023 after posting a 7.9% mark as a rookie.

There isn’t a tremendous edge in the available odds across our best MLB betting sites, but it still pays to take your action to BetMGM. The difference in the +500 price compared to the +440 number is a positive expected value of 11%, and an extra $6 profit on a $10 dollar wager.

Another avenue to capitalize on Gray’s ineffectiveness would be the Baltimore Orioles team total of 4.5 runs. DraftKings has the best available odds at -130.

Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 home runs (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐

Bet $5, Win $150 in Bonus Bets

I’m doubling down on the favorable matchup for the Chicago right-handed hitters against Waldichuk, and Swanson is also a ripe candidate for statistical correction.

The first-year Cubbie is still chasing his first homer of the season, and his .053 ISO is way down from the .185 mark he posted over the prior two years with the Atlanta Braves. Swanson was also more dangerous against left-handed hurlers with a .201 mark and 37.6% hard-hit rate during that stretch.

You’ll want to make sure to avoid the prohibitive odds through Caesars, with the available +500 number from DraftKings presenting a positive expected value of 36% over the +340 price.

Pivoting to Swanson’s total bases prop is also an option to take advantage of this mismatch. He’s reasonably priced at +120 through both DraftKings and BetMGM to go Over 1.5 bases on Tuesday.

MLB home run prop picks made 4/18/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.