MLB Home Run Prop Picks for Friday

sportsbookreview.com

14 April 2023

There continues to be a huge gap in the MLB odds across our best sportsbooks for home run props. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers and offers his top MLB home run prop picks for Friday.

It’s a full slate of games on the diamond Friday, and there are bound to be dozens of baseballs landing in the outfield bleachers. Banking on bombs brings the fun and adds entertainment value to your betting portfolio.

Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Friday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s MLB home run props

Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 home runs (+425 via BetMGM)⭐⭐
Pete Alonso Over 0.5 home runs (+400 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
Christian Walker Over 0.5 home runs (+575 via Caesars) ⭐

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Friday’s MLB home run prop picks

Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 home runs (+425 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

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The perennial AL MVP candidate hasn’t left the yard yet this season, and Ramirez’s underlying metrics are also down. His .157 ISO, 2.1 barrel percentage and 21.3 hard-hit rate are uncharacteristically low, and I’m banking on a sprinkle of statistical correction Friday.

Ramirez boasts a beefy .256 ISO with 73 homers against right-handed hurlers dating back to the 2018 campaign, so his track record far outweighs his stuttering start to the 2023 campaign for me.

This also isn’t a tough matchup.

Righty Trevor Williams is starting for the Washington Nationals, and while he’s been much more vulnerable to left-handed hitters overall, he’s already allowed two long shots and a 11.4 barrel percentage through his first two starts this season. Williams has also surrendered a target-worthy 1.4 HR/9 to righty bats as a starter during his career.

There’s clear value in shopping for the best number, too. FanDuel Sportsbook is hanging a prohibitive +320 price, so take advantage of the +425 odds through DraftKings Sportsbook or BetMGM. The difference in numbers checks out to a positive expected value of 25%.

Pete Alonso Over 0.5 home runs (+400 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

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Typically, I’d be looking at the early-season numbers for Alonso and Oakland Athletics starter James Kaprielian and calling for regression for both.

I’m pivoting in this case.

There isn’t a track record of success from Kaprielian to instill confidence, while all Alonso has done since debuting in the show is lead baseball in homers with an elite .277 ISO and 13.9 barrels percentage.

The forecast is also calling for moderate winds blowing out to center field at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on Friday.

When checking the odds lists, I wasn’t expecting to see Alonso priced at +400 to homer Friday. So, that was a nice immediate bonus. This is also another example of how important it is to price shop in this market. The DraftKings odds offer a mammoth positive expected value of 37% compared to the short +265 number Caesars is hanging.

Christian Walker Over 0.5 home runs (+575 via Caesars) ⭐

Miami Marlins southpaw Trevor Rogers has surrendered the ninth-highest HR/9 (1.64) and 11th-highest HR/FB rate (15.7%) to right-handed hitters among qualified pitchers dating back to last season.

So, with Christian Walker a proven lefty masher, these long odds from Caesars stood out.

Walker boasts a .255 ISO and 19.1 HR/FB rate against left-handed hurlers since the beginning of last year, and both of his 2023 dingers have come against southpaws.

I’ve graded this as a one-star nod because of Walker’s underwhelming start aside from the noted two bombs. Additionally, I’m not expecting him to match last season’s power outbreak of 36 home runs.

Still, we’re landing a nice edge with the Caesars odds. The +575 price presents an enormous expected positive value of 46% over the +360 number available through FanDuel.

MLB home run prop picks made 4/14/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.