MLB Home Run Prop Picks for Monday

sportsbookreview.com

17 April 2023

Price shopping continues to be the name of the game for home run props. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has surveyed the MLB odds across our best sportsbooks and offers his top MLB home run prop picks for Monday.

Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Monday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday’s MLB home run props

William Contreras Over 0.5 home runs (+450 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 home runs (+550 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
Vaughn Grissom Over 0.5 home runs (+900 via PointsBet) ⭐

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Monday’s MLB home run prop picks

William Contreras Over 0.5 home runs (+450 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

The Milwaukee Brewers backstop hasn’t left the yard all season and has just a pair of doubles despite a solid 34.4 hard-hit rate. Contreras also has been productive at the dish with a .318 batting average and .400 on-base percentage.

I'm banking on statistical correction to Contreras' power numbers. He posted a rock-solid .228 ISO and 13.4 barrels percentage in 2022, so I’m anticipating his current .045 and 5.7% marks to climb.

This is also the perfect pitching matchup. Seattle Mariners righty Chris Flexen has surrendered 1.86 HR/9 to right-handed hitters since the beginning of last season.

I added a second star to this confidence rating because of the noticeable advantage provided in the FanDuel odds. The +450 number presents a healthy positive expected value of 28% over the number available through Caesars.

Finally, Contreras is also priced at a healthy +120 to go Over 1.5 total bases through DraftKings. For those looking to take a more conservative approach.

Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 home runs (+550 via DraftKings)⭐⭐

I’m targeting Kansas City Royals starter Jordan Lyles with this home run prop. The veteran righty has been beyond vulnerable to left-handed hitters to the tune of a 1.71 HR/9 and 35.4 hard-hit rate dating back to the 2021 campaign.

Lowe also enters Monday's contest swinging a hot bat with six extra-base hits – just one home run – across his past seven games. Additionally, while his numbers against right-handed arms (.188 ISO and 33.1 hard-hit rate dating back to last season) don’t jump off the page, this is just as much a pick against Lyles as it is for Lowe.

With the wind also forecasted to be blowing lightly out to right field, and Lyles making a second consecutive start against Texas, the long odds through DraftKings present a little more value.

The edge provided by shopping for the best price also stands out. The difference between the +550 odds and +375 number through Caesars is a positive expected value of 37%. Put differently, a winning $10 dollar bet returns $17.50 more through DraftKings than Caesars.

Again, if looking to take advantage of the highlighted mismatch through the total bases prop market, the best odds for Lowe to go Over 1.5 is +120 through DraftKings and BetMGM.

Vaughn Grissom Over 0.5 home runs (+900 via PointsBet) ⭐

We’re dealing with small samples for two young players in this batter vs. pitcher matchup, but the Grissom payout for a long fly is large.

Grissom definitely doesn’t boast jaw-dropping numbers against lefties. But he’s still launched two home runs with a serviceable .167 ISO and 29.3 hard-hit rate across 54 career plate appearances in the split.

San Diego Padres starter Ryan Weathers served as a pitching machine to right-handed hitters during the 2021 campaign, and the 23-year-old southpaw has surrendered 1.87 HR/9 and a 37.8 hard-hit rate to righty bats during his short career.

This recommendation falls squarely in flier territory, but it is a plus-matchup for Grissom, and there’s also a huge edge when shopping for the best odds. The +900 number offers an expected positive value of 29% over the +675 through Caesars.

MLB home run prop picks made 4/17/2023 at 2 p.m. ET.