MLB Home Run Prop Picks for Thursday

Shopping across our best sportsbooks for the top available MLB odds in the home run prop market is beyond critical. There’s usually a huge disparity in the numbers and getting the best odds is of the utmost importance for longterm success. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has done the legwork and shares his top MLB home run prop picks for Thursday.

Nothing brings the crowd to its feet quicker than a homer, and banking on bombs is an entertaining avenue to enhance your viewing experience and betting portfolio during the baseball season.

Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Thursday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday’s MLB home run props

• Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 home runs (+540 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
• Rowdy Tellez Over 0.5 home runs (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

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Thursday’s MLB home run prop picks

Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 home runs (+540 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

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The Oakland Athletics will send out Adam Oller for just his 15th career start, and the 28-year-old righty has struggled against left-handed hitters during his short stint in the majors. Oller has served up a career 2.45 HR/9 and 38.0% hard-hit rate to lefty bats.

Enter Baltimore Orioles rookie Gunnar Henderson, and his +540 odds to take one deep at Camden Yards on Thursday.

Henderson has a small sample in the bigs, but it showcases a sound power profile against right-handed hurlers. The AL Rookie of the Year hopeful sports a respectable .193 ISO, 32.5% hard-hit rate, and five dingers through his 138 career plate appearances against righties.

Shopping for the best number provides a noticeable edge for Henderson here. His +540 odds to hit a home run through FanDuel represent a positive expected value of 22% over the +425 number via PointsBet. 

Rowdy Tellez Over 0.5 home runs (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

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It’s been a slow start to the 2023 campaign for Milwaukee Brewers slugger Rowdy Tellez. He did leave the yard on Tuesday, though, and there’s still statistical correction ahead. 

Tellez’s 11.5 barrels percentage and 42.3 hard-hit rate are mostly in line with last season’s respective 12.9% and 40.4% marks, but his .206 ISO and 16.7% HR/FB rate trail his .242 and 18.7% 2022 numbers.

I also value the pitching matchup with San Diego Padres righty Nick Martinez allowing a healthy 1.69 HR/9 and 17.9% HR/FB rate dating back to the beginning of last season.

Add the weather forecast calling for moderate winds blowing out to center field, and we just need to grab the most favorable odds from our best sportsbooks.

The gap in the DraftKings and BetMGM number compared to the FanDuel price present a meaty positive expected value of 30%, so you’ll definitely want to back the +500 odds to take full advantage of the presented edge.

MLB home run prop picks updated 4/13/2023 at 12 p.m. ET.

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