Revisiting 2023 Fantasy Baseball Preseason Predictions
The All Star break is a time for reflection. This week, I take a look back at my preseason articles to figure out where I went wrong and what I predicted accurately.
Undervalued Hitters: Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers (1B-8); Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds (C-11); Luis Arráez, Miami Marlins (1B-22, 2B-20); Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels (OF-32)
My only real hit here was Arráez. He has made headlines all season with a batting average lingering around .400, though it has “dipped” all the way down to .383 at the All-Star break. Lowe and Stephenson have been unspectacular but fine. Lowe looks more like his 2021 self than I anticipated after he posted gaudy numbers in 2022. Stephenson is on pace for a career-low batting average. Ward has been the only legitimate disappointment in this group, but overall, I could have done better here.
Undervalued Pitchers: Blake Snell, San Diego Padres (SP-35); Jesús Luzardo, Miami Marlins (SP-47); Patrick Sandoval, Los Angeles Angels (SP-61); Hunter Brown, Houston Astros (SP-65)
Snell and Luzardo have been excellent, with Snell earning NL Pitcher of the Month honors for June while pitching at a Cy Young pace and Luzardo ranking inside the top 20 starting pitchers for the season. Brown has struggled lately but maintained an ERA below 4.00 up until his last start and ranks inside the top 10 among qualified starters in strikeouts per nine innings. Sandoval was a big miss. He has been less effective with his slider and changeup, which I listed as potential concerns. I’ll take three out of four here.
Overvalued Hitters: Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals (C-5); Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies (1B-8); Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles (OF-13)
I’m not going to take a victory lap for my Hoskins pick here, as a spring training ACL tear ended his season before it began. I just hope you hadn’t drafted him before then. Perez has been just about as advertised, leading AL catchers in home runs with 15, and although he is a hindrance in OBP leagues and is on pace for his worst OPS since 2018, I can’t really say I was correct in calling him overvalued as there’s not a ton of elite catcher production to go around. Mullins has certainly underperformed, as he hasn’t returned to the form that helped him go 30-30 in 2021.
Overvalued Pitchers: Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays (SP-17); Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners (SP-30); Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox (SP-42)
We all know how Manoah’s season has gone and I don’t think that even a resurgent second half could make up for how bad he was out of the gate. Gilbert has been very good, so I’ll take my loss there. When I wrote about Giolito before the season, I mentioned that I had no idea what version of him we would get in 2023. Lo and behold, it has been closer to the good version despite a worse run value on all four of his pitches. I guess I still don’t really understand Lucas Giolito.
Breakout Candidates — Hitters: Josh Jung, Texas Rangers; Garrett Mitchell, Milwaukee Brewers; Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks
Josh Jung just started the All-Star Game and is a +135 favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year on FanDuel, so I feel pretty confident in saying I nailed that one. Mitchell was off to a solid start — and hitting for some more power with three home runs in his first 16 games — before injuring his shoulder and undergoing season-ending surgery. He’ll be one of my breakout candidates once again for 2024. Moreno hasn’t quite worked out, but hey, he was just a “bonus hitter” for that article anyway.
Breakout Candidates — Pitchers: Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins; Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles; Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox
I noted walks as the biggest concern for Cabrera, and boy was I right about that. He walked more than 14 percent of the batters he faced before landing on the shelf, where he has been for a month with a right shoulder injury. Bradish has been awesome for the O’s, posting just one truly bad start back in April, and has a lower ERA than Corbin Burnes in the past calendar year. Bello took a few starts to truly get going but has posted six straight quality starts and seven in his last nine outings.
Bounce-Back Candidates: Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins; Jesse Winker, Milwaukee Brewers; Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers; Tyler Mahle, Minnesota Twins
Look, this is my first season as a fantasy baseball analyst, OK?
