MLB Picks Today: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for September 12

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It’s a loaded Tuesday slate on the diamond thanks to multiple doubleheaders. Here are my favorite bets.

It’s nights like these where a trade for Max Scherzer should pay off. Now, you could also make the case that Scherzer was brought in to win games like the one he started last week against the Astros — the one where he surrendered seven earned runs in three innings — yet I’m willing to cut the RHP a little slack on that one. Over the last 30 days, Houston leads baseball in both wOBA (.371) and wRC+ (138). The Blue Jays do not. Toronto has been fine with the bats, yet it’s clear that the team misses Brandon Belt (back) and Matt Chapman (finger). Scherzer should be able to get back on track on Tuesday evening. In his six outings prior to imploding versus the Astros, the RHP had registered a 2.21 ERA and a 2.47 FIP.

On the other side of this pitching matchup, we find another elder-statesman of the position. Hyun-Jin Ryu has looked decent since returning from Tommy John, posting a 2.65 ERA over his 34.0 innings of work, yet as you’d imagine for a man whose fastball tops out around 89.0 mph, home runs have started to be an issue. Ryu’s surrendered four in his last 15.0 frames. That’s a major red flag going up against the Rangers. Not only does Texas own the league’s third-best wRC+ when facing LHPs (120), but it also sports the fourth-best slugging percentage (.457). I’d expect Scherzer to get some run support on Tuesday.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (Game 2)

I’m of two minds when I see this total. On the one hand, the Yankees almost just got no-hit for 11 innings of baseball. That’s really hard to do. On the other, I don’t trust either pitcher starting this contest for even a second, not to mention this will be the second game of a doubleheader, putting the validity of both bullpens into question. At the end of the day, the latter thought is probably the more important of the two.

Kutter Crawford has been horrible when asked to start games for the Red Sox in 2023. It’s not only that the RHP has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 6.1 innings of work, it’s that he owns a 5.04 ERA in the 19 overall games he’s been on the mound for the first inning. Things get even worse when you isolate Crawford’s numbers when pitching at Fenway. The 27-year-old has worked 47.0 innings in Boston so far this season, where he’s given up 1.53 opponent home runs per nine and pitched to an underwhelming 6.51 ERA.

Then there’s Carlos Rodon, who hasn’t looked right for the entirety of 2023. The southpaw has been limited to 10 starts by various ailments, which might explain Rodon’s 6.60 ERA and 6.48 FIP — at least that’s what New York’s front office is hoping heading into next season. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why Rodon’s struggled, either. Look no further than an 11.6% opponent barrel rate, a 10.3% walk rate and a HR/9 of 2.33. Free passes and hard contact are a tough combination to overcome.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.