MLB playoff preview and odds: Wild card series best bets
We have your MLB Playoff previews, odds, and promo offers for baseball betting this October. All four Wild Card Series begin Tuesday, with a spot in the Division Series on the line.
The World Series is scheduled to start Oct. 27, and futures odds have the Atlanta Braves (+275) as favorites. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at +475, and defending champion Houston is listed at +500 by Caesars Sportsbook.
Series odds, prop bets, and futures odds in this article are from Caesars Sportsbook, which is offering a $1,000 First Bet on Caesars when you use our exclusive Promo Code.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
SERIES ODDS: Texas (+130), Tampa Bay (-154)
PITCHING MATCHUP: Game 1: Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20 ERA, 166 K, 188.2 IP) vs. Tyler Glasnow (10-7, 3.53 ERA, 162 K in 120 IP)
PREVIEW: After blowing a 2 ½ game lead with four games left, the Rangers are limping into the playoffs. Good teams have a way of turning the page and moving forward in the postseason to find success. But Texas doesn’t feel like a very good team right now. They had two six-game winning streaks in September to thrust themselves to the top of their division, but otherwise the Rangers were 3-13. Since Aug. 16, they have an 18-24 record and have been outscored 222-190. If there is a switch they can flip to become a championship team in October, someone better find it.
BEST BET:
Rays to sweep series, +200 from Caesars. In the two seasons that MLB has had best-of-three playoff series (2022 and 2020), nine of the 12 have been swept.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
SERIES ODDS: Toronto (+105), Minnesota (-125)
PITCHING MATCHUP: Game 1: Kevin Gausman (12-9, 3.16 ERA, 237 K, 185 IP) vs. Pablo López (11-8, 3.66 ERA, 234 K in 194 IP)
PREVIEW: Most fans know the Twins have lost 18 consecutive playoff games. For that streak to halt, Minnesota needs López to pitch better against Toronto than he did in May when he allowed four earned runs in 5 ⅔ innings. In that game he surrendered home runs to Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette. Since that start, López has recorded 8+ K’s in eight starts and lowered his ERA by half a run. He’s the key to setting the tone for this series.
BEST BET:
Toronto to win the series 2-0. Your odds for a sweep by the visiting team are +350. In short (best-of-3) playoff series, the higher seed is 6-6. If Twins rooters have anything to be optimistic about it’s their teams’ 18-10 record since Sep. 1.
Arizona Diamondback vs. Milwaukee Brewers
SERIES ODDS: Arizona (+160), Milwaukee (-190)
PITCHING MATCHUP: Game 1: Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72 ERA, 94 K, 96 IP) vs. Corbin Burnes (10-8, 3.39 ERA, 200 K, 193.2 IP)
PREVIEW: It’s like a mirror image for these two offenses: the D-Backs and Brewers scored about the same number of runs, and hit about the same number of homers. But, the edge in pitching leans heavily to Milwaukee. This is the fifth postseason appearance for the Brew Crew in six years, but the franchise has managed to win only one series in that stretch. This pitching staff, built on the foundation of a stellar bullpen (3.40 ERA was the best in NL), could be the delivery system that propels the Brewers to the World Series for the first time in more than four decades.
BEST BET:
Brewers -1.5 Runs in Game 1, +118
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
SERIES ODDS: Miami (+170), Philadelphia (-200)
PITCHING MATCHUP: Game 1: Jesús Luzardo (10-9, 3.63 ERA, 208 K in 178.2 IP) vs. Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 ERA, 212 K in 192 IP)
PREVIEW: Luzardo has beaten the Phils twice this season, but don’t let that sway you too much: he allowed five runs in 12 innings, and benefited from 15 runs of support. Luzardo is not as effective on the road (4.48 ERA), and in two prior playoff starts, the lefty has a 7.27 ERA. This is the big stage, against a division rival, and in an enemy ballpark. That’s a GULP, you’ll hear as he takes the mound.
Wheeler is arguably the best pitcher in any of the Wild Card series. He’s a bonafide Game 1 ace, coming off another workhorse season. He’s posted at least 4 WAR in each of his last three campaigns, and unlike Luzardo, Wheeler has a good postseason résumé.
Bats to watch in Game 1 are Kyle Schwarber and Edmundo Sosa, both of whom took Luzardo deep this season. The Marlins have the weakest offense in the playoffs, ranking last in the NL in runs scored. They are an old-school, as in 1920s-style offense: high average and doubles-heavy. They don’t steal bases and are conservative on the bags. But if the Fish are going to pull off an upset, they may need to shake things up and be aggressive. Their best chance is to get early leads and hand the ball to their solid bullpen.
BEST BET:
Marlins +1.5 Runs in Game 1, -155 (Caesars). We expect the Phils to win the series, but Luzardo will keep it close, and Miami may even steal Game 1.
Wild Card Series Schedule
Tuesday, October 3, Game 1*
- Texas at Tampa Bay, 3:08 PM ET on ABC Sports
- Toronto at Minnesota, 4:38 PM ET on ESPN
- Arizona at Milwaukee, 7:08 PM ET on ESPN2
- Miami at Philadelphia, 8:08 PM ET on ESPN
*Same teams, times, and networks for Games 2 and 3 on Wednesday and Thursday (if necessary).
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