NASCAR Cup Series Championship: Our experts predict a winner, pick their favorite moments of the season and more

The NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race is this weekend at Phoenix Raceway. Kyle Larson is the favorite on BetMGM to win the race, and thus the championship. The Athletic’s Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi made their predictions for what to expect this weekend and looked ahead to next year.

1. Well… we made it. The Championship 4. This has been a very long ride and we learned a lot together. So naturally we’ll start with the NOOB question: Four drivers made the final. There will be a full field of cars. We’ve been following points the last few months. How does the winner actually win the Championship?

Jeff: Though NASCAR’s playoff format is complicated for newbies, the championship race is pretty simple: Whichever one of the four eligible drivers finishes ahead of the others is the champion. There are no stage points to worry about or anything like that; it’s purely based on finish. In the previous nine editions of this format, the champion has won the race every time. But heck, the champion could finish 30th if the other three drivers wreck out before him. So the final four are essentially having their own mini-race within this bigger one.

Jordan: Jeff’s detailed synopsis is excellent, so here is the Cliff Notes version: whomever is the highest finisher among the four title finalists wins the championship.

2. I feel like we’d be doing a disservice if we didn’t talk about that wild Xfinity finish. Teammates volleying for position, a crazy wreck, heated comments after, and Justin Allgaier wins and advances while essentially melded to another car. So what happens this week??

Jeff: Phoenix should be much calmer than Martinsville, where the scramble to make the championship race was intense. Now it’s pretty much a straight-up fight between Allgaier, John Hunter Nemechek, Cole Custer and Sam Mayer. There’s only one pairing of teammates in the mix this week (Allgaier and Mayer), so you’d think Nemechek and Custer would have some friendly breaks from their own manufacturer. But after Nemechek raced hard against teammate Sammy Smith at Martinsville and Smith missed the final four, Smith vowed not to act like a teammate toward Nemechek at Phoenix.

Jordan: Oh to be a fly on the wall during Richard Childress Racing’s competition meeting. They should’ve charged folks to watch a live stream. RCR would’ve made a few bucks. As for this week, don’t expect any similar fireworks. These championship races will feature hard, hard racing, but rarely anything that crosses a line and is considered dirty.

3. Who will win the Cup Series title?

Jeff: Ryan Blaney. He’s the hot hand after winning Martinsville and having a great Round 3 overall. Plus, he’s great at Phoenix. He could have won last year’s championship race but stayed loyal as the protector to teammate Joey Logano and finished second instead. Then he followed that up by finishing second again in the spring. Blaney seems to have the most momentum of anyone right now, and even though he was a Diamondbacks-style wild card before the playoffs began, he could very well win it all. That said, if you’re going to bet on who wins the championship, you might as well bet on them to win the race (where there are better odds).

Jordan: A strong case can be made for Blaney, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him win the championship. He’s phenomenal at Phoenix in the Next Gen era. But from this perspective, this is Kyle Larson’s title to lose. He’s consistently had the most speed this season and this is a track he’s had success at previously – winning the championship in 2021 and nearly the race here this spring. If he and the No. 5 have a mistake-free race, Larson takes the championship for the second time in three years.

4. If I’m Martin Truex Jr. (just picking a guy at random here), and I’m racing with not a lot of stakes, what am I doing? Trying to win anyway? Staying back and letting the top 4 battle it out? Is there someone deep in the field who can pull off a random major upset at Phoenix?

Jeff: There a couple answers to this. First of all, a guy like Truex or Denny Hamlin would love to end on a much more positive note and beat all the championship drivers to win the final race of the season. But there’s also still something to race for when it comes to the playoff drivers: They can still move higher or lower in points. Bubba Wallace, for example, is tied for ninth in points. He’s never finished better than 19th in the standings, so a top-10 result in the final points would be a great step forward. Hamlin can also clinch fifth in points (the “best of the rest” spot, so to speak) for the second straight season.

Jordan: Looking at this from Truex’s perspective, sure there is a level of frustration (and likely disappointment) over how his playoff unfolded. There has to be. But if he can have a great result on Sunday, maybe even a win, it might make things a smidge easier going into the offseason that otherwise may be filled with tough questions.

5. Let’s get sentimental for a moment: What’s your favorite moment of the season?

Jeff: Even though rain ruined much of the weekend and threatened to wash out the race altogether, the Chicago Street Race was so damn cool. Shane van Gisbergen pulling off a stunning, unprecedented feat – winning in his first NASCAR start – was incredible, and the race overall turned out to be a really good show and fantastic atmosphere. That was really a special scene I’ll long remember.

Jordan: Chicago was quite memorable, especially considering the level of skeptical going in. But outside of the monsoon – which NASCAR had no control over – the weekend was a smashing success. NASCAR’s return to North Wilkesboro after a multi-decade absence was also special. Few, if anyone, truly thought the historic short track would ever come back to life and, not only did it happen but happened with the venue hosting the All-Star Race.

6. Let’s get a little less sentimental for a moment: Give us a big wild, super long shot but “hey this COULD happen” prediction for 2024

Jeff: Ty Gibbs not only makes the playoffs, but gets to the Round of 8. Gibbs quietly had a very good rookie season and already seems close to taking that next step in competitiveness. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him win multiple races and put together a playoff run next season despite being just 21 years old.

Jordan: In his second year with RCR, Kyle Busch and his No. 8 resolve the inconsistency that plagued them in 2023 and he emerges as a bonafide contender to win the regular season points championship. And come the playoffs, he becomes the first RCR driver to advance to the Championship 4 since Ryan Newman in 2014.