NASCAR Cup Series preview: Should bettors back off Kyle Larson until his luck changes?
In this week’s column, we dive into Kyle Larson’s bad luck with crashes, wonder if there will be retaliation for Ross Chastain’s aggressive style, heap some more praise on Josh Berry, and more…
Why is Kyle Larson crashing so much? He’s done it in 3 of his last 4. Should this be a weekly concern where we should have some degree of worry that he might DNF when he’s a 5-1 or 6-1 favorite?
Jeff: Bad luck, mostly. That’s legitimately what it is. Last week, Larson was moving up through the field when Ross Chastain wrecked Brennan Poole right into Larson’s path. The week before that, Larson was the victim of a typical Talladega wreck. And then at Bristol Dirt, Ryan Preece decided to retaliate against Larson for an incident earlier in the race. Unfortunately, that’s the risk you take with betting on NASCAR. You can identify the fastest car and the best driver at that track, but they can still finish 36th if they get wrecked or have a mechanical failure. Personally, that’s why I think head-to-head matchups and even group betting might be better plays in some cases.
Jordan: The crashes at Talladega and Dover were due to being in the wrong spot at the wrong time, something largely beyond Larson’s control while his accident at Bristol was on him. Knowing this, the concern is mostly minimal. The big takeaway is that Larson has speed in his cars, and as long as this continues he’s going to be a threat to win most weeks – if he can shake his bad luck. Just look what happened in the one race he didn’t crash in over the past four weeks – he won.
Josh Berry, our unofficial patron saint here, finished 10th at Dover. If he keeps up these solid finishes, would there be a way to keep him in the Cup Series? Or is he a victim of a numbers game and destined to go back to Xfinity when Alex Bowman returns?
Jeff: All signs are pointing to Berry being a full-time Cup Series driver next year. What’s that sound? Wait, that’s Jordan’s music! I’ll let him take it from here.
Jordan: Let’s just say there is a very strong likelihood that Berry is racing full-time in the Cup Series in 2024 and doing so with a big four team.
Ross Chastain was at the center of the crash that indirectly took out Larson (although he said he didn’t mean to do it). It seems like a recurring theme with him causing wrecks. Is there a line of drivers looking to retaliate? Or is this just going to keep happening because of his style and people accept it?
Jeff: Whew, biggest question of the last two years right here. Chastain seems to anger so many drivers, and yet none of them really ever do anything. Larson got in his way and held him up a bit at Dover, but there was no contact. Hamlin “retaliated” at Phoenix (kind of) and then got penalized for it, so that might discourage others from trying anyway. So yes, if Chastain continues to have an aggressive style and pisses off the field but no one ever does anything about it, when why change?
Jordan: Oh, there is a long line of drivers unhappy with Chastain and his aggressive driving. A line that seemingly increases each week. But while Chastain may not win any popularity contests, his style is working for him – and quite well – as he nearly won the championship a year and is currently leading the points standings. So, no, he shouldn’t change.
Are we back on a course where long shots can pop up?
Jeff: Nah, probably not. Bubba Wallace did win the most recent Kansas race, but that was actually fairly predictable given how strong 23XI Racing was at the track last year and how well Wallace had been running at the time. Like Dover, it’s probable either Hendrick Motorsports or Joe Gibbs Racing will have the edge, followed by the smattering of cars from some combination of 23XI, Richard Childress Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing, Trackhouse Racing and Team Penske. But none of those really qualify as underdogs, and it’s tough to envision an upset winner this weekend.
Jordan: Something wonky would have to occur for a surprise winner to emerge Sunday, like the race coming down to fuel mileage – which isn’t entirely uncommon at Kansas. The likely outcome is one of the usual suspects wins, continuing a trend we’ve seen this season where the surprises have been few and far in between.
NOOB QUESTION OF THE WEEK: We haven’t talked F1 much in this column. The F1 Academy seems like the biggest slam dunk of all-time, yet can’t find a streaming service and we haven’t seen any trading cards for it yet. What’s the best way to watch this? And do you think NASCAR will ever do something like an all-female circuit in the future?
Jeff: As our Madeline Coleman has noted, you currently can’t watch F1 Academy races – and even the highlights from their first race were delayed in getting posted. You’d assume this would be something people can stream eventually. But in terms of an all-female series, it’s actually quite controversial in racing. Why could a woman not drive a race car as fast as a man can? It has nothing to do with strength (Cup cars have power steering, for example), so why would men have an advantage? If you create an all-female NASCAR series, are you essentially saying “Women can’t hang with men, so they need their own place?” The NHRA would certainly disagree, given how successful women have been in drag racing. A better bet in NASCAR would be to keep investing in female drivers in the development ranks and allow them to work their way up the current ladder system. It’s a numbers game. Hopefully we’ll see a handful of women drivers in the Cup Series before long.
Jordan: Jeff answered this question perfectly and I wholeheartedly agree with what he said.
