2024 Daytona 500 odds, predictions, start time: Model reveals surprising NASCAR picks, leaderboard
The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season will begin on Sunday, Feb. 18 when the 2024 Daytona 500 is held at Daytona International Speedway. It's the biggest stock car race on the planet and NASCAR's biggest spectacle will set the tone for what should be another thrilling season of racing. The green flag is scheduled to drop at 2:30 p.m. ET and the front row of the 2024 Daytona 500 starting grid will be determined by Daytona 500 qualifying on Wednesday, Feb. 14. The rest of the 2024 Daytona 500 field will be determined by the finishing order of the Bluegreen Vacations Daytona Duels.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is the defending winner of The Great American Race, but he's a 25-1 longshot in the 2024 Daytona 500 odds. Meanwhile, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Chase Elliott are 12-1 co-favorites in the 2024 NASCAR at Daytona odds. Before scouring the 2024 Daytona 500 starting lineup and making any 2024 NASCAR at Daytona predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Daytona 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021.
All told, the model has nailed a whopping 15 winners since 2021 and nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Top 2024 Daytona 500 predictions
For the 2024 Daytona 500, we can tell you the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he's a 28-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Daytona odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After going winless over his first 120 starts in the NASCAR Cup Series, Chastain burst onto the scene with two wins in 2022 and went on to finish second in the NASCAR standings.
He followed that up with two more wins in 2023 and wound up finishing ninth in the race for the championship last season. Chastain led six laps and finished ninth at the 2023 Daytona 500 and then led 19 more laps before finishing 17th in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway. He'll look to tap back into the speed he found at Daytona last season and his aggressive style always makes him a factor at the checkered flag if he can avoid the big one and stay near the front.
Another massive shocker: Chris Buescher, one of the Vegas co-favorites at 12-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2024 Daytona 500 starting lineup. A rogue winner at Pocono in 2016, Buescher broke back through for his second victory at Bristol in 2022 and then had a three-win season in 2023 where he finished seventh in the NASCAR standings.
That included a win at the 2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400 but he only led two laps in that race and he's failed to finish seven of his 16 career starts at Daytona. He's also managed five top-five finishes at Daytona but he'll be treated differently in the NASCAR Cup Series now that he's established himself as a title contender and the model is fading his co-favorite status. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Daytona picks
The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2024 NASCAR Daytona odds of 16-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
2024 Daytona 500 odds, drivers, lineup
Ryan Blaney 12-1Joey Logano 12-1Brad Keselowski 12-1Denny Hamlin 12-1Chris Buescher 12-1Chase Elliott 12-1William Byron 16-1Kyle Busch 16-1Bubba Wallace 18-1Christopher Bell 20-1Kyle Larson 22-1Ty Gibbs 25-1Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 25-1Martin Truex Jr. 25-1Erik Jones 25-1Ross Chastain 28-1Austin Cindric 28-1Austin Dillon 28-1Tyler Reddick 28-1Ryan Preece 30-1Alex Bowman 30-1Chase Briscoe 30-1Michael McDowell 40-1Josh Berry 40-1Daniel Suarez 40-1Carson Hocevar 55-1John Hunter Nemechek 55-1Harrison Burton 60-1Justin Haley 60-1Jimmie Johnson 60-1Noah Gragson 60-1Corey Lajoie 65-1Todd Gilliland 65-1Anthony Alfredo 75-1David Ragan 75-1A.J. Allmendinger 75-1Riley Herbst 80-1Daniel Hemric 100-1Zane Smith 100-1Kaz Grala 100-1
