Newmarket racing tip: Best bet for the Falmouth Stakes
Day two of the Newmarket July meeting sees the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes, which brings together a mix of older fillies and mares with the best of the crop of three-year-old females.
15:35 Newmarket (July): Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (1 mile)
I have used the trends below from the last twenty-one runnings of this prestigious Group 1 to narrow down the field:
- 20/21 - Aged 3 or 4 years old
- 19/21 - Won a Listed or better class race previously
- 17/21 - Had 2+ runs that season
- 16/21 - Won over at least 1 mile previously
- 16/21 - Won from stall 5 or lower
- 16/21 - Ran at Ascot in their last race
- 15/21 - Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
- 12/21 - Favourites placed
- 7/21 - Favourites that won (1 joint)
- 7/21 - Previous Group One winners
- 7/21 - Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
- 6/21 - Won their last race
- 3/21 - Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 9)
- 2/21 - Trained by Aidan O'Brien (2 of last 7)
- 2/21 - Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 11)
- 2/21 - Owned by the Cheveley Park Stud (2 of the last 9)
- 2/21 - French-trained winners
- 2/21 - Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (6 wins in total)
- 7/10 - Came from stalls 1 (3) or 4 (4)
- Since 1979 all bar two winners were aged three or four years old
This left a shortlist of three horses: Prosperous Voyage, Astral Beau and Nashwa.
Prosperous Voyage won this race last year as a three-year-old and ran well at Ascot last time, so maybe coming into form at the right time. The booking of William Buick is also a massive plus, as he rides Newmarket so well.
Astral Beau is the longest-priced horse of the three on the shortlist but has the best record at Newmarket with four runs with three wins.
She has won at Listed level, but this is Group 1, and it would be a huge surprise if she were to win. Astral Beau could run into a place, but others have a better chance of winning.
Nashwa runs very well for Hollie Doyle and has already won twice at Group 1 level, which bodes well here.
She also is drawn in four which has provided multiple winners in this race. My concern about her chances are that her wins at the top level have been at a longer trip and she may lack a finishing kick against some of the mile specialists here.
The most significant danger to the trends' selection could be the Aiden O'Brien-trained Never Ending Story due to the stable and jockey record in this race.
Via Sistina has looked amazing this season but misses out on age trends and I think she may need a longer recovery time than 13 days.
To sum up, the trends selection is last year's winner Prosperous Voyage each way at a generous price considering her Newmarket record.
