NFC South 2023 Division Winner Odds and Predictions
Is the NFC South going to be the worst division in the NFL this season? That is not an unreasonable assumption to make as the start of the regular season approaches.
After all, if you take a look at Bovada’s Super Bowl futures odds, the New Orleans Saints, at +5000, have the longest odds of any projected NFL division winner. The Detroit Lions, who are favored to win the NFC North, have the second longest Super Bowl title odds (+2500) of any of the division favorites.
Not only is the NFC South coming off of a season in which its champion, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, finished 8-9, but each team in the division is breaking in a new starting quarterback.
Will the Saints back up their status, or will one of the other teams gel well enough to edge them out?
Odds to Win the NFC South in 2023
- New Orleans Saints +140
- Atlanta Falcons +200
- Carolina Panthers +325
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +850
NFC South 2023 Division Breakdown
New Orleans Saints (+140)
Post-Drew Brees life has not been kind to the Saints. After Brees retired following the 2020 season, the Saints finished 9-8 and missed the NFL playoffs in Sean Payton’s last season as head coach, then finished 7-10 in Dennis Allen’s first season at the helm.
There may not be a major leap record-wise this season, but they look like the best of a bad bunch in the NFC South by virtue of having the best quarterback situation of the quartet.
In the offseason, they signed Derek Carr, who was released by the Raiders after nine seasons in Oakland and Las Vegas.
In the AFC West, Carr would have been fourth behind Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and good Russell Wilson, who may return this season with Payton now in Denver.
But in the NFC South, the four-time Pro Bowler is at the top of the heap ahead of Baker Mayfield, Desmond Ridder, and Bryce Young. That is a bit by default, but Carr should benefit from the fresh start, and in turn, so should the Saints.
It’s hard to see this team making a great deal of noise in the NFL playoffs, but the addition of Carr should help them reclaim NFC South supremacy.
Atlanta Falcons (+200)
For the Falcons, a lot will depend on whether or not the coaching staff makes the most of some very promising talent on offense.
Second-year QB Desmond Ridder started the final four games last season and led the Falcons to wins in their last two games.
With a mobile QB, a dynamic talent in the backfield in rookie RB Bijan Robinson, and WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts–who is working his way back to full health after tearing his MCL last season–the horses are there. Will head coach Arthur Smith let them be as free as they should be? There isn’t anything to lose in doing so.
Carolina Panthers (+325)
Despite the head coach being fired during the season and having three different starting quarterbacks last season, the Panthers were a fourth-quarter collapse in Week 17 at Tampa Bay from winning the division.
You never want to bank too much on a rookie starting quarterback, but if he can acclimate well, the Panthers have the potential to exceed expectations in the NFC South.
Receiver D.J. Moore was traded to the Bears in the deal that landed Carolina the #1 pick in this year’s NFL Draft, but the Panthers added RB Miles Sanders, receivers D.J. Chark Jr. and Adam Thielen, and tight end Hayden Hurst.
Also, third-year receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. averaged 17.5 yards per catch last season and could be a big-play weapon for Young.
Frank Reich has a little stink on him from the way his tenure with the Indianapolis Colts panned out, but it is mitigated a bit by the fact that he clearly wasn’t the only issue the franchise had last season.
Ultimately, he might be a solid choice for a team with one eye on the present and one eye on the future, and it would not be a surprise at all if the Panthers end up winning the NFC South.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+850)
After signing Tom Brady the last time that they were in search of a new starting quarterback, the Buccaneers didn’t go for a splash signing this time around.
Instead, they traded for Mayfield, who returns to the NFC South after a short stint with the Carolina Panthers last season.
Mayfield opened the season as the starter for the Panthers but ended it as the starter for the Los Angeles Rams. Across those two stints, Mayfield won twice in ten starts.
How long will his leash be with the Bucs? Expectations aren’t high in Tampa this year, but he likely won’t get the full season if things go badly, unless coach Todd Bowles just doesn’t trust Kyle Trask.
This team is not devoid of talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball. But they wouldn’t have sniffed a division title without Brady last season, and while there is perhaps a benefit to not being so centered around Brady, this team is unlikely to score enough to win enough.
NFC South 2023 Division Winner Prediction: New Orleans Saints (+140)
The Falcons and Panthers both have the potential to make things interesting, but ultimately, there is no reason for the Saints to fall short of the NFC South title.
If they don’t, Allen won’t be in New Orleans past this season, unless he elects to continue to live there after being given his pink slip.
Where to Bet on NFL Futures Odds
Many of the top online sportsbooks that offer a wide variety of NFL odds throughout the season.
In addition to being able to bet on Super Bowl spread and over/under odds when the big game arrives, you can make weekly NFL picks on games all season long, you can also bet on the major awards like NFL MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, and more at most reputable sports betting sites.
Along with Bovada, where the NFC South odds in this article came from, there are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for NFL betting. The above books are some of the others that we highly recommend.
