NFL Parlay Predictions, Odds Week 16: Mayfield Tames Jaguars

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22 December 2023

NFL Parlay Predictions, Odds Week 16: Mayfield Tames Jaguars

The playoff push is on as we make our best NFL parlay predictions for Week 16 based on the best NFL odds at our best sportsbooks.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield has led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a 7-7 record and sole possession of first place in the NFC South entering Sunday’s games. He gets a juicy matchup this week against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that hasn’t been able to stop any quarterbacks of late.

Elsewhere, Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson should see an uptick in carries after being mysteriously absent last week against the Carolina Panthers, and the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins may not play as high-scoring of a game as many expect.

In addition to our NFL Week 16 predictions and NFL Week 16 player props, here are our best NFL Week 16 parlay predictions (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Best NFL Week 16 parlay predictions

NFL Week 16 parlay: +569 via DraftKings

Baker Mayfield Over 233.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Last week, Mayfield threw for a season-high 381 yards as the Buccaneers defeated the Green Bay Packers. It was just his second performance of more than 300 yards, and though he hadn’t thrown for more than 202 yards in the three weeks before his explosive performance, he’s in line for another huge day on Sunday.

The Jaguars defense can’t stop anyone right now. They’re allowing 256.6 passing yards per game this season, and they’ve allowed three of the last four quarterbacks they’ve faced to throw for more than 300 yards against them.

The Jaguars only scored seven points against the Baltimore Ravens last week, but they had plenty of opportunities to add more. They will score plenty in this game, keeping Mayfield throwing for all four quarters. Against this secondary, Mayfield may throw for over 300 yards.

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Bijan Robinson Over 58.5 rushing yards (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Robinson has been a constant headache for both bettors and fantasy owners this season. The explosive rookie has been underutilized in some favorable matchups, including last week’s game against the Panthers. He finished with just seven carries for 11 yards, as Tyler Allgeier received double the carries he did.

If Arthur Smith wants to keep his job as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, he needs to use Robinson more in this game. The great news for bettors is that this is a very good matchup.

The Indianapolis Colts allow 127.4 rushing yards per game, seventh-most in the NFL. Though Robinson had just eight touches last week, he’d been averaging nearly 20 over the previous four games. With Taylor Heinick under center, and the Falcons’ playoff hopes on the line, look for Robinson to have a big game against a bad run defense.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins Under 50 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When looking at the Week 16 schedule, this game jumps out as a contest with the potential for a lot of points. The public confidently backs the Over at the best sportsbooks, with 72% of bettors expecting a final score of more than 50 points. And yet, oddsmakers are dropping the total, with some posting a number as low as 49.

Though each of these defenses has looked bad at various points throughout the season, the Cowboys have the fifth-best scoring defense in the league, while the Dolphins are 14th. Additionally, the Dolphins have allowed just one of their last five opponents to score more than 20 against them.

Both of these offenses have struggled against teams with winning records. The Dolphins have scored 20 or fewer points against every team over .500 that they’ve played, while the Cowboys just scored 10 against the Bills last week. These offenses can score a lot, but both will struggle on Sunday.